都市捷運系統有班距短，服務密集之特性。當系統發生意外延滯，需儘速調度處理，否則延滯現象會快速擴散，嚴重影響服務水準。系統營運者的調度手段包括行車調度、人員調度、車輛調度，數種調度方式皆是協同運作，具一定程度之複雜性，同時在路網架構下的捷運系統裡，調度時必須考量到多路線、多機廠與多處車班的環境限制，調度作業的優劣判斷選擇更為複雜。利用模擬模式來模擬捷運系統內路線、車輛、機廠、司機、旅客等元素間的相互關係，將有助於未來對此類問題之探討。
本研究以「事件導向模擬」(Discrete Event Simulation)方法建構模擬模式，針對都市捷運鐵路裡多路線構成之Y字形路網進行列車流、旅客流、乘務員流之模擬。模式中之主要輸入為時刻表計畫、車輛使用計畫、司機員乘務計畫、系統運行參數、旅客O-D資料；主要輸出為實際的列車行車時刻、車輛運用狀況、乘務員使用狀況以及個別的旅客旅行時間。並針對輸出資料建構包括1.旅行時間2.列車延滯3.車輛調度4.人員調度四方面的績效指標。
模式可設定任意時間、地點裡模擬任意程度的延滯，另可搭配選用數種不同之調度方式。用以觀察、描述並量化說明延滯對系統造成之衝擊以及調度策略對系統帶來之效益。
本研究以C++程式語言對模式加以實做，並以台北捷運公司之淡水、新店、中和三條路線整合成之Y字型路網的營運計畫、旅客O-D與系統參數來進行實證分析。得到的主要結論如下。
1. 單就旅客旅行時間的指標而言，綜合策略較單一策略有效。
2. 延滯對旅客之影響程度，與旅客進站的時段、地點、及目的地有關。某些車站的特定時段裡，部分旅客甚至反而會因之前的延滯事件而使的旅行時間減少。
3. 備用車與雙人乘務之使用雖對旅行時間有顯著效益，但會使得車次重整調度與人員調度次數顯著增加。此時配合行車調度一起運作可改善此種情況。

Mass Transit System is essential to metropolitan area. However, when train delay incident happens, system performance will be strongly influenced without rescheduling strategy.

System operator has various rescheduling strategies including schedule regulation, crew rescheduling and vehicle rescheduling. In general, one rescheduling strategy is often accompanied with others. Besides, urban transit lines have already become a “Network Structure”. We must consider multi-lane, multi-depot, in rescheduling. As a result, this problem is more complicated than ever. Building a simulation model is helpful in exploring this issue.

This research built an event-oriented model to simulate urban transit line. The model simulated the flows of train traffic, passenger traffic, vehicle traffic and crew traffic in multi-line, multi-depot. The model is capable of simulating various levels of delays at any station and any time under different rescheduling strategy. The thesis can describe the impact of delay and benefit of rescheduling strategy in terms of performance index.

At last, this research implements model by C++ language. The empirical data are collected by TRTC (Taipei Rapid Transit Company). This research results show:

1. When we consider travel time of passengers only, combined strategy is obviously better than single strategy.
2. In individual passenger’s view, the level of travel time increase can be influenced by passenger’s origin, destination and arrival time. However, some passengers may reduce their travel time due to train delay.
3. Although using spare vehicle or “Double Ending” can reduce travel time delay, it can increase the frequency in crew rescheduling and train number reformation.

一. 中文部分
[1]90年台北市市民通勤通學概況調查,市政府統計週報第119號,台北市市政府主計處

[2]台北捷運公司高運量捷運系統車務作業手冊4.1.1節

[3]台北捷運公司高運量捷運系統行控中心作業手冊4.1節

[4]高運量捷運系統行車運轉作業程序1.4.2節,第3章

[5].黃範哲，高速鐵路系統運轉整理之研究，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國90年7月

[6].楊金玲，以帽子曲線拉直模式改良捷運列車調整問題之研究，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國90年7月

[7].簡聰裕，捷運系統運轉整理之研究，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國89年7月

[8]謝興盛、丁國樑，台北捷運自動列車監督系統之研究，台北捷運公司

[9]謝興盛，軌道車輛之行車控制技術-以台北捷運為例，台北捷運公司

二. 英文部分
[10]Abkowitz M., and Tozzi J. (1986) “Transit Route Characteristics and Headway-Based Reliability Control,” Transportation Research Record 1078, 11-16.

[11]Averill M.Law ,and W.David Kelton “Simulation Modeling And Analysis” Third Edition,Ch1,pp3~7.

[12]James G. Strathman,Thomas J. Kimpel,Kenneth J. Dueker,"Bus Transit Operations Control:Review and an Experiment Involving Tri-Met’s Automated Bus Dispatching System" Transportation Research Board 80 th Annual Meeting January 7-11, 2001

[13]Koffman,D.(1978),”A Simulation Study of Alternative Real-Time Bus Headway Control Strategies”. Transportation Research Record 663,pp41-46

[14]Turnquist, M. A. 1978. A model for investigating the effects of service frequency and reliability on bus passenger waiting times. Transportation Research Record, 663, 70-73.

[15]Turnquist, M. A., and Bowman, L. A. 1980. The effects of network structure on reliability oftransit service. Transportation Research, 14B, 79-86.

[16]Yuqing Ding,"Improving transit service quality and headway regularity with real-time control",Transportation Research Board80th Annual Meeting January 7-11, 2001

[17]Welding, P. (1957) “The Instability of Close Interval Service.” Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 133-148.

三. 全球資訊網部分

[18]http://www.dorts.gov.tw/

[19]http://www.trainweb.org/

[20]http://www.trtc.com.tw/