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研究生: 蘇榆哲
Su, Yu-Che
論文名稱: 害蟲擴散控制與天敵投放最佳化
Optimization of Pest Diffusion Control and Biological Enemy Deployment
指導教授: 王俊涵
Wang, Chun-Han
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 170
中文關鍵詞: 生物防治混合整數規劃最佳化啟發式演算法
外文關鍵詞: Biological Control, Mixed-Integer Programming, Optimization, Heuristic Algorithms
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  • 害蟲擴散對農業生產與作物收成造成持續且嚴重之威脅。過度依賴化學農藥雖可於短期內抑制蟲害,卻亦可能伴隨環境污染、生態失衡及農產品安全等問題。相較之下,透過投放害蟲天敵進行生物防治,不僅可降低化學藥劑之使用,亦有助於兼顧農業經濟效益與環境永續。因此,如何在有限防治資源下,決定天敵之投放位置、時機與數量,以抑制害蟲擴散、維持作物完整度並提升整體農業利潤,為一項具有實務意義之資源配置與排程決策問題。
    本研究建構一套整合空間害蟲擴散、生物防治及作物生長之多期最佳化架構。研究中將農地表示為方格網路,以節點描述各區域之害蟲數量、天敵存量及作物完整度,並考量害蟲族群成長、擴散閾值、鄰近節點遷徙、天敵捕食與留存,以及作物受害與恢復等動態機制。在此基礎上,本研究建立多期混合整數規劃模型,以各節點與期別之天敵投放量為主要決策變數,並以期末可收成作物之總價值扣除天敵投放成本後的整體利潤最大化為目標,同時納入最低與最高投放量、可投放期別及全規劃期總投放量上限等管理限制。
    由於本問題同時包含整數投放決策、期末收成門檻、不可逆作物毀損、害蟲空間擴散及跨期生態動態,使其解空間呈現離散門檻、時空耦合、全域資源限制及搜尋路徑依賴等特性。當問題規模增加時,混合整數規劃模型之求解負擔亦隨之上升。為提升大規模實例之求解效率,本研究提出貪婪建構啟發式演算法(GreedyConstruction Heuristic, GCH)與模型導向空間基因演算法(Model-Aware Spatial Genetic Algorithm, MA-SGA)。GCH 由高防治覆蓋之最大投放配置出發,依序執行收成數保留式反向縮減、整數劑量精煉、離散邊際損失導向之總投放量修復、目標節點救援交換、劑量與期別改善搜尋,以及時間限制下之擾動與重啟搜尋。MA-SGA則透過生態參數與空間錨點建立問題特化初始族群,並結合競賽選擇、矩形區塊交配、兩點交配、混合突變、總投放量修復、菁英保留及建構式移入個體,以群體式搜尋探索不同的時空投放配置。
    數值實驗針對不同問題規模比較混合整數規劃模型、GCH與MA-SGA之解品質及計算效率,並以混合整數規劃所得之最佳解或最佳界作為相對差距之計算基準。實驗結果顯示,隨著節點數量增加,精確求解所需之計算負擔明顯提高;相較之下,GCH與MA-SGA均能於限定計算時間內產生滿足投放限制之可行解,提供大規模天敵投放排程問題之近似求解方法。兩種演算法分別透過單一目前解之集中改善與多個候選解之群體式探索處理解空間特性,呈現不同的搜尋行為與解品質表現。
    此外,本研究透過單參數敏感度分析,探討害蟲成長率、作物損害率、作物生長率、天敵捕食率與留存率、單位投放成本、期末收成閾值、投放量上下界及全規劃期總投放量上限等參數對系統利潤與投放決策之影響。分析結果顯示,生態條件、經濟參數及管理限制均可能改變天敵投放之空間與時間配置,反映生物防治決策須同時考量害蟲風險、天敵控制效能、作物恢復能力及可用防治資源。
    本研究之主要貢獻在於整合空間化害蟲擴散、生物防治、作物生長與管理限制,建立可描述多期生態動態及天敵投放決策之混合整數規劃模型;並針對問題之離散門檻與時空耦合特性,提出具不同搜尋架構之GCH與MA-SGA,以支援大規模實例之近似求解。研究結果可作為農業管理者進行害蟲防治規劃、天敵資源配置及相關管理政策評估之決策參考。

    Pest diffusion poses a persistent threat to agricultural production and crop harvests. Biological control through the release of natural enemies provides an alternative toexcessive reliance on chemical pesticides. This study develops a multi-period optimization framework integrating spatial pest diffusion, biological control, and crop growth. A mixed-integer programming (MIP) model is formulated to determine the locations, timing, and quantities of natural-enemy releases with the objective of maximizing total profit. To improve computational scalability, a Greedy Construction Heuristic (GCH) and a Model-Aware Spatial Genetic Algorithm (MA-SGA) are developed. Numerical experiments show that both methods can generate feasible solutions within limited computation time as problem size increases. Sensitivity analysis further demonstrates that ecological, economic, and operational factors affect system performance and release decisions. The proposed framework provides quantitative decision support for pest control planning and natural-enemy resource allocation.

    摘要 i EXTENDEDABSTRACT iv 誌謝 vii 目錄 viii 表目錄 xiii 圖目錄 xiv 1緒論 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2研究動機與目的 4 1.3研究問題與範圍 4 1.4論文架構 6 2相關文獻探討 7 2.1生物防治的背景與應用 7 2.2害蟲與天敵習性 9 2.2.1害蟲與天敵的覓食與移動方式 9 2.2.2作物的生長、補償與恢復機制 11 2.2.3天敵的捕食與寄生機制 12 2.2.4害蟲族群的成長 13 2.3害蟲防治應用的數學模型 14 2.3.1歷史與概念基礎 14 2.3.2動態規劃與最佳控制理論 14 2.3.3模擬 15 2.4生態保育的多期決策與混合整數規劃 16 2.5影響力模型 18 2.6小結 18 3方法與模型 20 3.1問題描述與結構 20 3.2問題與假設 24 3.3害蟲擴散控制與最佳化釋放伏擊型天敵模型-M1 25 3.4天敵移往害蟲數最多處-M2 36 3.5天敵按固定比依照鄰居節點害蟲數排序移動-M3 42 3.6小結 51 4最佳天敵投放策略演算法設計 52 4.1問題解空間結構分析 52 4.2貪婪建構啟發式演算法 55 4.2.1解表示、可行性與比較準則 56 4.2.2最大投放初始化與反向貪婪縮減 57 4.2.2.1最大投放初始化 57 4.2.2.2收成數保留式粗粒度反向貪婪縮減 58 4.2.2.3整數劑量閾值細化 59 4.2.3離散邊際損失導向總投放量修復 59 4.2.4時空投放重配置與建構後改善搜尋 61 4.2.4.1目標導向時空組合重配置 61 4.2.4.2替代排序貪婪建構路徑 62 4.2.4.3單輪劑量下修與期別搬移改善搜尋 62 4.2.5時間限制下之多路徑建構與擾動改善搜尋 63 4.2.5.1多路徑貪婪建構 63 4.2.5.2可重現擾動與集中改善 64 4.2.6演算法流程圖 65 4.2.7演算法虛擬碼 66 4.2.8計算複雜度、停止性與實作設定 66 4.3模型導向空間基因演算法 69 4.3.1染色體表示 70 4.3.2問題特化建構式初始化 71 4.3.2.1節點投放模板 71 4.3.2.2錨點導向貪婪空間建構程序 72 4.3.2.3初始族群組成 73 4.3.3適應性評估與歷史最佳解 74 4.3.4親代選擇與交配運算子 75 4.3.4.1 k-競賽選擇 75 4.3.4.2矩形區塊交配與兩點交配 75 4.3.5混合突變運算子 76 4.3.6可行性修復 77 4.3.6.1基因值域投影 77 4.3.6.2總投放量上限修復 78 4.3.7菁英世代替代與建構式移入策略 78 4.3.8停止條件與可重現性設定 79 4.3.9演算法流程圖 80 4.3.10演算法虛擬碼 80 4.3.11演算法參數設定 82 4.3.12演算法設計特性 82 5數值實驗與結果分析 84 5.1實驗設計與設定 84 5.2可擴展性測試 86 5.2.1小規模實例結果 87 5.2.2中規模實例結果 88 5.2.3大規模實例結果 89 5.2.4綜合分析 91 5.3敏感度分析 92 5.3.1生態機制參數之敏感度分析 92 5.3.1.1單位害蟲對作物的破壞係數δ之敏感度分析 92 5.3.1.2作物生長率gc之敏感度分析 94 5.3.1.3害蟲成長率gp之敏感度分析 96 5.3.1.4天敵留存率gf之敏感度分析 99 5.3.1.5捕食/寄生效率αf之敏感度分析 101 5.3.2生物防治與操作決策參數之敏感度分析 103 5.3.2.1單位投放成本c之敏感度分析 103 5.3.2.2可收成閾值φh之敏感度分析 107 5.3.2.3最小投放量xmin之敏感度分析 111 5.3.2.4最大投放量xmax之敏感度分析 114 5.3.2.5全規劃期總投放量上界xtotal之敏感度分析 115 5.4關鍵參數辨識 118 5.5延伸模型之數值分析與跨模型比較 121 5.5.1 M2與M3之可擴展性測試 121 5.5.2 M1、M2與M3之關鍵參數跨模型敏感度比較 122 5.5.2.1單位投放成本c之跨模型敏感度分析 123 5.5.2.2害蟲成長率gp之跨模型敏感度分析 125 5.5.2.3捕食/寄生效率αf之跨模型敏感度分析 126 5.5.2.4全規劃期總投放量上界xtotal之跨模型敏感度分析 128 5.5.3溫度上升情境下之多參數跨模型分析 131 5.6小結 135 6結論 139 6.1研究結論 139 6.2研究貢獻 143 6.3研究限制與未來研究方向 145 參考文獻 148

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