面對鋼鐵產業高碳排放壓力與碳定價政策推進，高爐煉鐵製程之低碳化轉型成為產業升級之關鍵課題。本研究針對傳統高爐運作中碳源過度依賴焦炭的現象，提出三種基於回收氣體循環利用之低碳回噴策略，並建構整合乾式甲烷重組（Dry Reforming of Methane）、化學吸收碳捕捉（MEA-based CO2 Capture）、薄膜空分與熱整合設計等單元的模擬平台，藉以系統性評估其對於碳排放與整體經濟成本之影響。
本研究以Aspen Plus®為模擬核心，結合非穩態模擬策略與Rist diagram進行氣體還原效率與焦炭取代率（Coke Replacement Ratio）分析，並建立高解析焦炭熱能替代模型。三種回噴策略分別為：(1) 純碳捕捉氣體直接回噴、(2) 爐頂氣乾式改質後回噴、(3) 捕捉與改質整合後回噴。模擬結果指出，Scenario 2（乾式改質氣體回噴）在固定焦炭消耗下限（200 kg/tHM）與火焰溫度約束下，具最佳焦炭替代與減碳潛力，可將年排碳量由5,783.93 ktCO2降至3,532.90 ktCO2，減幅達38.92%。
進一步結合 Monte Carlo 模擬與 Student-t Copula，建立生命週期總成本（TLCC）分布，並借鏡 Value-at-Risk（VaR） 方法，計算成本高於基準的機率以評估風險。結果顯示 Scenario 2 具有最低 TLCC 均值（17,165 MUSD）、最小風險區間，且超出基準的機率僅 0.334%，展現出優異的經濟穩定性與風險控制能力。

To address the urgent need for decarbonization in the steel industry, this study proposes and evaluates innovative carbon reduction strategies for blast furnaces (BFs) operating under low-nitrogen conditions. Using Aspen Plus® simulations, three scenarios were designed: CO2 captured reinjection, dry reforming of top gas, and a combined strategy. Each scenario was evaluated based on coke replacement ratio, carbon reduction efficiency, flame temperature sustainability, and energy consumption.

Scenario 2, which applies dry reforming before reinjection, demonstrated the highest carbon reduction (38.92%) and coke substitution efficiency, despite increased auxiliary power demand. Life cycle cost analysis showed that Scenario 2 had the lowest Total Life Cycle Cost (TLCC), with an estimated expenditure of approximately 17,165 million USD over a 20-year period. Furthermore, Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations confirmed its superior investment stability, with an 99% probability of outperforming the baseline under economic fluctuations.

This study provides an integrated approach that combines process simulation, techno-economic evaluation, and risk analysis to support future implementation of low-carbon BF operations. The results highlight dry-reformed top gas injection as the most promising pathway for reducing emissions while maintaining cost competitiveness and operational feasibility.

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