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研究生: 程國彰
Cheng, Guo-Jang
論文名稱: 行動電話號碼可攜之使用者成本效益分析
Cost Benefit Analysis of Number Portability in Taiwan Mobile Telephone Market
指導教授: 廖俊雄
Liao, Chun-Hsiung
黃國平
Hwang, Kuo-Ping
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2004
畢業學年度: 92
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 138
中文關鍵詞: 成本效益分析情境分析行動電話號碼可攜
外文關鍵詞: mobile number portability, cost-benefit analysis, scenario analysis
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  •   台灣行動電話滲透率近幾年來快速成長,用戶數已於2002年超過固定網路,滲透率高達106.5%為世界最高。行動電信市場競爭相當激烈,一共有六家業者在此市場經營;然而至今為止最大家的行動網路仍為早期國營獨佔的中華電信,其用戶數至2003年底已達767萬;而號碼可攜對行動電話市場新進業者而言是一種競爭優勢,本論文企圖去評估台灣行動電話市場行動號碼可攜「MNP」的成本及效益。
      在這篇論文中,我們首先探討介紹國內外實施「MNP」的技術與概念,及回顧國內外「MNP」之相關文獻來建立國內「MNP」成本效益的完整評估流程;英國及香港早在1998年即開始進行「MNP」政策的成本效益評估,但是,國內對此議題尚無較嚴謹的研究。本論文主要以這兩篇文獻的研究架構作為基礎,修正部份的評估項目,在「MNP」效益評估方面,將行動電話用戶依「MNP」對其所產生不同的效益來加以分群,建構各分類的使用者效益評估與加總之流程;透過合理可行的抽樣方法對國內行動電話用戶進行調查,研究方法主要是對台北、台中及高雄三大都會區行動電話用戶進行問卷調查,資料收集採各電信主要門市門口每隔三位出來的民眾請求其幫忙填答,有效樣本數為738份。在「MNP」成本評估方面,由於國內行動市場競爭激烈,成本取得更為困難,故不得以採用標竿法將香港及英國的「MNP」成本用來估算國內「MNP」的系統建置及維護成本,最後再假設不同的轉攜率及成本改善率之情境,進行估算國內實施「MNP」十年所產生的淨效益現值;我們冀望本論文能作為電信總局「MNP」政策的一個合適且嚴謹的學術上支持。
      最後將本論文的研究結果概述如下:國內行動電信市場擁有高的顧客流動性,不管一般用戶或商業用戶皆有50%以上曾換過業者;調查研究中也發現「MNP」政策將更形提高顧客轉換意願,亦即國內行動電話市場顧客流動性會因此提高。在「MNP」成本效益的評估上,該政策的實施將為國內行動電話用戶至少增加3,456元的十年淨效益現值,樂觀的情境下亦可能增加6,843元的十年淨效益現值;「MNP」轉攜率的變動或成本改善率的變動皆與用戶淨效益呈現正向的關係。因此建議電信總局應迅速確實的落實「MNP」政策,使資源能有效利用以提高社會的福利。

      Taiwan mobile penetration has soared in recent years, overtaking the number of fixed lines in 2002, and has reached a penetration rate of 106.5%, the world’s highest. Competition is strong, with a total of six operators operating in the market. However, the largest cellular network, even till now, is that operated by the former state monopoly, Chunghwa Telecom, which had close to 7.67 million of subscribers as of 2003. Number portability has an advantage to new entrants in the market. This thesis is an attempt to evaluate the cost and benefit of “mobile number portability” (MNP) on Taiwan’s mobile market.
      In the thesis, we introduce the technique and concept of MNP, and review the related literature to construct a complete evaluation procedure. U.K. and H.K. had evaluated the MNP’s cost-benefit in 1998. But there currently exists no serious domestic work tackled on this issue. This thesis adopts thesis frameworks and adjusts several evaluation items. In the evaluation of MNP’s user benefit, mobile subscribers are sorted into different user types according to the benefits generated by MNP, and the procedures of user benefits’ evaluation and aggregation are then constructed, via reasonable and feasible sampling methods, date collection is derived from the questionnaire of mobile subscribers in Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung metropolitan cities. (The number of effective samples is 738). In the assessment of MNP’s cost, data collection is a difficult task due to the fierce competition in the market. Hence, we apply the benchmark method on both U.K.’s and H.K.’s cases to calculate Taiwan MNP’s construction costs and maintenance costs. Finally, considering several scenarios of MNP churn rates and cost improvement rates, we estimate the net benefit derived from the 10-year implementation of MNP on domestic mobile market. We hope this thesis can be a concrete academic support for Bureau of Telecommunication’s MNP policy.
      The main findings of this thesis can be summarized as follows. The liquidity of subscribers in mobile market is relatively high and more than half of ordinary subscribers/business subscribers have switched operators. Further, MNP increases the inclination of subscribers to switch operators and thus promotes the subscribers’ liquidity in the market. In the cost benefit analysis of MNP, it will bring at least a N.T. $3,456 (and up to N.T. $6,843) of the present value of 10-year net benefit to every mobile subscriber. Both MNP churn rate and cost improvement rate have a positive impact on subscriber’s net benefit. Therefore, Bureau of Telecommunications in Taiwan should promptly implement the MNP policy to promote social welfare.

            目  錄 第一章 緒論 ...................................... 1  第一節 研究背景與動機 .......................... 1  第二節 研究目的及內容 ............................6  第三節 研究範圍與限制 .......................... 6  第四節 研究流程 ................................. 8 第二章 文獻回顧 ..................................11  第一節 行動電話號碼可攜之基本概念 ...............11  第二節 台灣行動電話號碼可攜之未來發展 ..........19  第三節 「行動電話號碼可攜」之重要性 .............27  第四節 成本效益評估相關文獻 .....................32  第五節 小節 .....................................37 第三章 成本效益之估算流程 ........................38  第一節 成本效益之評估架構 .......................38  第二節 行動電話號碼可攜效益分類 .................39  第三節 效益A之估算流程 ..........................45  第四節 效益B之估算流程 ..........................49  第五節 效益C之估算流程 ..........................51  第六節 業者成本項目之估算流程 ...................54 第四章 成本效益之評估方法 ........................56  第一節 效益評估之問卷設計 .......................56  第二節 成本評估之訪談內容設計 ...................59  第三節 問卷調查 .................................59 第五章 成本效益之評估結果b .......................63  第一節 樣本結構分析 .............................63  第二節 效益A、B及C的估算結果 ....................66  第三節 成本衡量 .................................84  第四節 情境分析 .................................86 第六章 結論與建議 ................................92  第一節 結論 .....................................92  第二節 建議 .....................................93 參考文獻 .............................................98

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