簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 李淳碩
LEE, SUNSEOK
論文名稱: The Impact of Catastrophic Events on Stock Returns: The Comparison of International Stock Markets
The Impact of Catastrophic Events on Stock Returns: The Comparison of International Stock Markets
指導教授: 楊曉瑩
Yang, Ann Shawing
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所
Institute of International Management
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 108
外文關鍵詞: Political economics, Political conflict, Natural disaster, Event study methodology, Market model, Global capital markets, Emerging market
相關次數: 點閱:120下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • The impact of political conflicts and natural disasters on global economy has been shown in previous studies; however, evidence is lacking to show international impacts on global stock markets with statistical results. This study investigates the impact of political conflicts and natural disasters on international stock markets throughout the period for 2010 to 2014. Utilizing event study methodology, specifically the market model, the findings reveal that the impact of the catastrophic events on six international countries, such as U.S, Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan have significant influenced international stock markets. The results indicated that individual countries are more influenced by political conflicts than natural disasters and the more individual countries are related to international political interest, the more they are affected by the events. The findings say that the developed stock markets such as United States and Japan recover faster than emerging markets such as Shanghai, South Korea and Taiwan. It is because the developed markets have much transparent and well organized financial systems. Finally, the results indicate that several positive and negative co-movements are observed because of globalization and open market economy system.

    ABSTRACT I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS II TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLES VI LIST OF FIGURES VIII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background. 1 1.2 Research Motivation and Gap. 2 1.3 Research Objectives and Contribution. 3 1.4 Procedure of the Study. 4 1.5 Structure of the Study. 5 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1 Analyzing Event. 7 2.1.1 The Impact of Political Conflicts on Stock Markets. 7 2.1.2 The Impact of Catastrophic Events on Stock Markets. 11 2.2 Analyzing Market. 12 2.2.1 Efficient Market and Market Model. 12 2.2.2 Comparing Developed Markets and Emerging Markets. 13 2.2.3 Stock Market co-movement. 14 2.2.4 Market Shock and Unsystematic Risk. 15 2.3 Hypothesis Development. 16 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 17 3.1 Research Design. 17 3.1.1 Event Selection. 17 3.1.2 Estimation Period and Event Window. 22 3.2 Variables. 22 3.3 Methodology and Modeling. 25 3.3.1 Theory of Event Study Methodology. 25 3.3.2 Market Model and Regression (OLS). 26 3.3.3 Using Daily Data. 27 3.3.4 Abnormal Return (Excess Return). 27 3.3.5 Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR). 28 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 30 4.1 Data Analysis. 30 4.2 Event Study Analysis. 34 4.2.1 Results for Political Conflictive Events with Violence. 34 4.2.2 Results for Political Conflictive Events without Violence. 40 4.2.3 Results for Natural Disaster Events. 46 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 52 5.1 Research Conclusion. 52 5.2 Research Implication and Contributions. 55 5.3 Research Limitations and Suggestions. 56 REFERENCES 57 APPENDICES 60

    Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2008). Terrorism and the world economy. European Economic Review, 52(1), 1-27.
    Armitage, S. (1995). Event study methods and evidence on their performance. Journal of Economic Surveys, 9(1), 25-52.
    Basher, S. A., & Sadorsky, P. (2006). Oil price risk and emerging stock markets. Global Finance Journal, 17(2), 224-251.
    Baur, D. (2003). Testing for contagion—mean and volatility contagion. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 13(4), 405-422.
    Bhattacharya, U., Daouk, H., Jorgenson, B., & Kehr, C.-H. (2000). When an event is not an event: The curious case of an emerging market. Journal of Financial Economics, 55(1), 69-101.
    Bouriaux, S., & Scott, W. L. (2004). Capital market solutions to terrorism risk coverage: A feasibility study. The Journal of Risk Finance, 5(4), 34-44.
    Brandt, P. T., & Sandler, T. (2009). Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(5), 758-778.
    Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31.
    Carter, D., & Simkins, B. J. (2002). Do markets react rationally? The effect of the September 11th tragedy on airline stock returns. The Effect of the September 11th Tragedy on Airline Stock Returns (April 3, 2002), 0(0), 1-28.
    Carter, D., & Simkins, B. J. (2004). The market’s reaction to unexpected, catastrophic events: The case of airline stock returns and the September 11th attacks. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 44(4), 539-558.
    Chen, A. H., & Siems, T. F. (2002). An empirical analysis of the capital markets’ response to cataclysmic events. Southern Methodist University. Dallas. Retrieved from http://www.diw-berlin.de/documents/dokumentenarchiv/17/39100/diw_ws_consequences200206_siems.pdf
    Chen, A. H., & Siems, T. F. (2004). The effects of terrorism on global capital markets. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 349-366.
    Chesny, M., Reshetar, G., & Karaman, M. (2011). The impact of terrorism on financial markets. Journal of Banking and Finance 32(0), 253-267.
    Christos, K., Stephanos, P., & Iacovos, P. (2014). Rogue State Behavior and Markets: The financial fallout of North Korean nuclear tests. Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, 20(2), 267–292.
    Corrado, C. J. (1989). A nonparametric test for abnormal security-price performance in event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 23(2), 385-395.
    Davidson, W. N., Chandy, P., & Cross, M. (1987). Large losses, risk management and stock returns in the airline industry. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 0(0), 162-172.
    De Mesquita, E. B. (2008). The political economy of terrorism: A selective overview of recent work. The Political Economist, 10(1), 1-12.
    Drakos, K. (2004). Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: Airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 435-446.
    Edwards, S. (2000). Interest rates, contagion and capital controls. Paper presented at the 1999 World Economy Lecture, Massachusetts, USA.
    Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
    Farrar, D. E., & Glauber, R. R. (1967). Multicollinearity in regression analysis: The problem revisited. The Review of Economic and Statistics, 49(1), 92-107.
    Fayyad, A., & Daly, K. (2011). The impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns: Comparing GCC countries with the UK and USA. Emerging Markets Review, 12(1), 61-78.
    Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: Measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.
    Högholm, K., Knif, J., & Pynnönen, S. (2011). Cross-distributional robustness of conditional weekday effects: Evidence from European equity-index returns. The European Journal of Finance, 17(5-6), 377-390.
    Hammoudeh, S., & Li, H. (2008). Sudden changes in volatility in emerging markets: The case of Gulf Arab stock markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 17(1), 47-63.
    Hon, M. T., Strauss, J., & Yong, S. K. (2004). Contagion in financial markets after September 11: Myth or reality? Journal of Financial Research, 27(1), 95-114.
    Ito, H., & Lee, D. (2005). Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on US airline demand. Journal of Economics and Business, 57(1), 75-95.
    Jentleson, B. W., & Britton, R. L. (1998). Still pretty prudent post-cold war American public opinion on the use of military force. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 42(4), 395-417.
    Kallberg, J., Liu, C. H., & Pasquariello, P. (2008). Updating expectations: An analysis of post-9/11 returns. Journal of Financial Markets, 11(4), 400-432.
    Kawashima, S., & Takeda, F. (2012). The effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on stock prices of electric power utilities in Japan. Energy Economics, 34(6), 2029-2038.
    Kollias, C., Papadamou, S., & Stagiannis, A. (2011). Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks. International Review of Economics & Finance, 20(4), 532-541.
    Kothari, S., & Warner, J. (2006). Econometrics of event studies (Vol. 1). Vancouver: British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data.
    Kutan, A. M. (2007). Contagion or real linkages? Some evidence from China's emerging parallel markets. China & World Economy, 15(4), 52-65.
    Lee, H.-Y., Wu, H.-C., & Wang, Y.-J. (2007). Contagion effect in financial markets after the South-East Asia Tsunami. Research in International Business and Finance, 21(2), 281-296.
    Li, H. (2012). The impact of China's stock market reforms on its international stock market linkages. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 52(4), 358-368.
    Lu, C., Yang, A. S., & Huang, J.-F. (2014). Bankruptcy predictions for US air carrier operations: A study of financial data. Journal of Economics and Finance, 0(0), 1-16.
    MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(0), 13-39.
    Malatesta, P. H., & Thompson, R. (1985). Partially anticipated events: A model of stock price reactions with an application to corporate acquisitions. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(2), 237-250.
    McGuckin, R. H., Warren-Boulton, F. R., & Waldstein, P. (1992). The use of stock market returns in antitrust analysis of mergers. Review of Industrial Organization, 7(1), 1-11.
    Mehdian, S., Nas, T., & Perry, M. J. (2008). An examination of investor reaction to unexpected political and economic events in Turkey. Global Finance Journal, 18(3), 337-350.
    Mitchell, M. L., & Netter, J. M. (1994). The role of financial economics in securities fraud cases: Applications at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Business Lawyer, 0(0), 545-590.
    Mohanty, S. K., Nandha, M., Turkistani, A. Q., & Alaitani, M. Y. (2011). Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Global Finance Journal, 22(1), 42-55.
    Narayan, S., Sriananthakumar, S., & Islam, S. (2014). Stock market integration of emerging Asian economies: Patterns and causes. Economic Modelling, 39(0), 19-31.
    Nikkinen, J., Omran, M. M., Sahlström, P., & Äijö, J. (2008). Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: Evidence from 53 equity markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 17(1), 27-46.
    Obi, C. P. (2007). Market Sector Reactions to 9-11: An Event Study. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 1(1), 48-58.
    Savickas, R. (2003). Event‐induced volatility and tests for abnormal performance. Journal of Financial Research, 26(2), 165-178.
    Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
    Shiller, R. J. (2015). Irrational exuberance. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
    Su, D. (2003). Stock price reactions to earnings announcements: Evidence from Chinese markets. Review of Financial Economics, 12(3), 271-286.
    Tang, G. Y., & Shum, W. C. (2003). The relationships between unsystematic risk, skewness and stock returns during up and down markets. International Business Review, 12(5), 523-541.
    Warren-Boulton, F. R., & Dalkir, S. (2001). Staples and office depot: An event-probability case study. Review of Industrial Organization, 19(4), 467-479.
    Wilson, B., Saunders, A., & Caprio Jr, G. (2000). Financial fragility and Mexico's 1994 peso crisis: An event-window analysis of market-valuation effects. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 0(0), 450-468.

    下載圖示 校內:2025-07-01公開
    校外:2025-07-30公開
    QR CODE