本研究主要採用多元迴歸分析檢視於2011年1月1日生效的ECFA(海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議)對於台灣進出口值之影響，以2008年至2013年之月資料進行分析。由於分析期間涵蓋歐債危機發生期間，因此本研究也將歐債危機納入並進行分析與討論。為觀察兩事件對於台灣不同面向的進出口值影響，本研究除了分析台灣總體進出口值外，亦針對台灣對中國之進出口值進行分析；同時為檢視ECFA的實行對於台灣與主要貿易夥伴的進出口是否存在排擠效果，本研究亦分別針對台灣除中國外前三大進出口貿易夥伴之進出口值進行分析。
本研究將進出口值設為應變數，自變數部分則將ECFA與歐債危機設為虛擬變數。總體經濟相關控制變數為實質有效匯率指數、景氣領先指標，季節因素如中國新年、西方假日季節產生的出貨潮則設為虛擬變數以掌握相關季節因素對於台灣進出口值的影響。實證結果發現ECFA對於台灣總體出口值有顯著之正向影響，然對於總體進口值部分有顯著負向影響。排擠效果部分，ECFA在台灣出口部分並未造成排擠效果，然實證結果顯示ECFA對於台灣自其他除中國外之前三大貿易夥伴在進口部分存在排擠效果。有關歐債危機，實證結果顯示歐債危機整體上對於台灣出口值之負面影響較為顯著，進口值部分則依進口國家而有所差異。

This study applies multiple regression models to examine the effects of ECFA (Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement), which became effective on Jan 1, 2011, on the export and import values of Taiwan from 2008 to 2013. This study collects monthly data during the period for regression analysis. In order to cover the effects on different aspects of Taiwan export and import values, this study takes monthly overall export and import values of Taiwan and monthly export and import values between Taiwan and China as dependent variables. Euro debt crisis was another mega event that affected international trade during the period, and therefore will be considered and analyzed in this study.
In order to test the crowding-out effect on other top 3 trading partners except China, this study also takes monthly export and import values between Taiwan and other top 3 trading partners as dependent variables for analysis. ECFA and euro debt crisis as the mega events are set as dummy variables. The macroeconomic control variables include real effective exchange rate index and leading indicators while seasonal factors like Chinese New Year and cargo rush for holiday seasons are set as dummy variables. The empirical results show that ECFA has positive effects on the values of export from Taiwan and negative effects on values of overall import and import from top 3 partners except China, which indicates the problem of crowding-out effect. Regarding euro debt crisis, the empirical results show that it has negative effects on the export values of Taiwan, but it does not have significant effects on values of import from some countries.

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