簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 盧盈宏
Lu, Ying-Hung
論文名稱: 以合作賽局理論應用於環境流量及社會需求之水資源分配
A Bargaining Game Model for Considering Environmental Flow and Human Needs in Water Resources Allocation
指導教授: 孫建平
Suen, Jian-Ping
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 水利及海洋工程學系
Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 77
中文關鍵詞: 石門水庫大漢溪流域賽局理論協議賽局水資源分配環境流量
外文關鍵詞: Shihmen Reservoir, Tahan Rive, Game Theory, Bargaining Game, Water Allocation, Environmental Flow
相關次數: 點閱:135下載:5
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 現今社會對於水資源的需求越來越高,於水資源不足的條件之下,水庫要滿足人類需求並同時提供足夠流量予下游生態環境,是十分困難的任務。因此針對計畫之供水量做打折減供為必要之手段,而合理的供水方式,應是在人類需求遭到縮減的同時,環境供應也做一定比例的減少,讓人類與大自然共同面對水資源不足的情境。
    由於現今的水庫操作規則並無規範生態環境之流量,也沒有環境流量在水庫面臨下限以下之水位時,所應做的打折手段。有鑑於此,本研究針對研究區域內之環境流量資料加以分析計算,以合作賽局理論中的納許協議賽局為方法,利用效能函數的設計讓人類之各種用水標的與環境流量同為賽局之參與者,藉由這樣的方式來表現人類與環境一同分配有限水資源的概念,並額外考量水庫管理者為其中一位參與者,因水庫管理者於水資源不夠的情況下會希望保留部分水量待日後之用,最後求取納許協議解之分配結果,針對豐水、平水與枯水年等不同之水文年度,探討各參與者的計畫用水需求量及最低滿足量對36旬水庫配水結果所造成之影響。本研究欲藉由納許協議賽局找出生態環境流量合理且具可行性的操作方式,並於本論文之研究區域內,提供環境的參考放水量與缺水時36旬環境流量的打折比例,供日後水資源決策者參考。

    Because the water resource is scarce, it’s quite difficult to meet human needs and to provide enough environmental flows at the same time. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce water supply in allocation management of water resources especially in drought situation. In Taiwan, current reservoir operation rules do not consider environmental requirements or any discount plan for environmental flows. This research collected the ecological information of the Shihmen Reservoir and analyzed the regulation of flow condition. A cooperative game was build with five players, that represent five types of water usage, agriculture, industry, resident, environment, and reservoir storage, under a utility function for studying water resources allocations and for finding reasonable amount of water for environmental flows. This model provides reasonable solutions while tested with historical data of various annual precipitations of drought and wet conditions, and can be a useful tool for water resources management.

    摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 III 目錄 IV 表目錄 VI 圖目錄 VII 第一章、前言 1 1-1 研究動機與目的 1 1-2 研究方法及流程 3 1-3 論文架構 4 第二章、文獻回顧 5 2-1 賽局理論 5 2-2 台灣水資源永續管理、生態環境流量及保育用水 7 第三章、理論概述 11 3-1 賽局理論的基本概念 11 3-2 納許協議賽局 14 3-3 環境流量推估 21 第四章、研究案例與方法 23 4-1 研究區域概述─石門水庫及大漢溪流域 23 4-2 協議賽局的建立 27 4-3 用水標的缺水程度之評定與水庫可靠度指標 41 第五章、結果與討論 43 5-1 比較三種配水模式於不同豐枯水文年之分配結果 43 5-2 賽局模式參數之探討、未來可能之應用 66 第六章、結論與建議 70 6-1 結論 70 6-2 建議 72 參考文獻 74

    Ambec, S., and Ehlers, L. Sharing a river among satiable agents. Games and Economic Behavior, 64(1), 35-50. (2008).
    Datta, B., and Burges, J. S. Short-term, single, multiple-purpose reservoir operation: importance of loss functions and forecast errors. Water Resources Research, 20(9), 1167-1176. (1984).
    Fernandez, L. Trade's dynamic solutions to transboundary pollution. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 43(3), 386-411. (2002).
    Fernandez, L. Wastewater pollution abatement across an international border. Environment and Development Economics, 14(01), 67-88. (2008).
    Frisvold, B. G., and Caswell, F. M. Transboundary water management game-theoretic lessons for projects on the US─Mexico border. Agricultural Economics, 24, 101-111. (2000).
    Ganji, A., Khalili, D., and Karamouz, M. Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation. I. The symmetric stochastic model with perfect information. Advances in Water Resources, 30(3), 528-542. (2007a).
    Ganji, A., Karamouz, M., and Khalili, D. Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation II. The value of players’ information availability and cooperative behaviors. Advances in Water Resources, 30(1), 157-168. (2007b).
    Hsu, S. K. Shortage indices for water-resources planning in Taiwan. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Mnangement, 121(2), 119-131. (1995).
    Jowett, G. I. Instream flow methods: A comparison of approaches. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management, 13, 115-127. (1997).
    Karamouz, M. Bayesian stochastic optimization of reservoir operation using uncertain forecasts. Water Resources Research, 28(5), 1221-1232. (1992).
    Karamouz, M., and Houck, H. M. Annual and monthly reservoir operating rules generated by deterministic optimization. Water Resources Research, 18(5), 1337-1344. (1982).
    Kilgour, M. D., and Dinar, A. Flexible water sharing within an international river basin. Environmental and Resource Economics, 18, 43-60. (2001).
    Lippai, I., Heaney, P. J., and Member, A. Efficient and equitable impact fees for urban water systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Mnangement, March/April, 75-84. (2000).
    Lopes, L., Docarmo, J., Vitorcortes, R., and Oliveira, D. Hydrodynamics and water quality modelling in a regulated river segment: application on the instream flow definition. Ecological Modelling, 173(2-3), 197-218. (2004).
    Nash, F. J., Jr.,. The bargaining problem. Econometrica, 18(2), 155-162. (1950a).
    Nash, F. J., Jr.,. Equilibrium points in n-person games. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 36(1), 48-49. (1950b).
    Nash, F. J., Jr.,. Non-cooperative games. The Annals of Mathematics, 54(2), 286-295. (1951).
    Nash, F. J., Jr.,. Two-person cooperative games. Econometrica, 21(1), 128-140. (1953).
    Osborne, J. M. An Introduction to Game Theory. Oxford University Press. (2004).
    Raquel, S., Ferenc, S., Emery, C., Jr.,, and Abraham, R. Application of game theory for a groundwater conflict in Mexico. Journal of Environmental Management, 84(4), 560-571. (2007).
    Suen, J. P. Ecological Based Methods for Multi-Objective Water Resources Management in Taiwan. Ph. D. dissertation, University of Illinois, Urbana. (2005)
    Suen, J. P., and Eheart, J. W. Reservoir management to balance ecosystem and human needs: incorporating the paradigm of the ecological flow regime. Water Resources Research, 43(3):W03417. (2006)
    Stalnaker, C., Lamb, L. B., Henriksen, J., Bovee, K., and Bartholow, J. The instream flow incremental methodology: A primer for IFIM. (1995).
    Suzuki, M., and Nakayama, M. The cost assignment of the cooperative water resource development: A game theoretical approach. Management Science, 22(10), 1081-1086. (1976).
    Tennant, L. D. Instream flow regimens for fish, wildlife, recreation and related environmental resources. Fisheries, 1(4), 6-10. (1976).
    von Neumann, J., and Morgenstern, O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press. New Jersey (1944).
    Wang, L., Fang, L., and Hipel, W. K. Basin-wide cooperative water resources allocation. European Journal of Operational Research, 190(3), 798-817. (2008).
    WCED. From one earth to one world. Oxford University Press. (1987).
    王瑞鋐,考量下游水質及河川流態於水庫最佳化操作之研究,國立成功大學碩士論文,(2009)。
    吳瑞賢,陳榮松,温博文,保育用水推動策略規劃,(2005)。
    吳瑞賢,溫博文,毛振泰,河川生態基流量、棲地改善及分流演算之研究暨河川魚類洪,枯水流量棲地分佈之推估,河川生態基準流量評估技術研討會,(2002)。
    吳瑞賢,溫博文,毛振泰,張楨驩,河川生態基流量及魚類棲地分佈之研究-以卑南溪為例,中國土木水利工程學刊,16(2) ,301-314,(2004)。
    汪靜明,河川生態基準流量設計及魚類棲地改善之理念,環境教育季刊,49-69,(1998)。
    周文杰,以水文流量資料估算生態基準流量之探討-以中港溪為例,水域生態研討會,(2001)。
    邱繼賢,兼顧環境流量之跨流域水資源運用─取法都江堰之引水概念,國立成功大學碩士論文,(2010)。
    財團法人農業工程研究中心,石門水庫供水區域各標的用水中長期規劃暨區域產業發展探討及推動之研究,(2008)。
    張楨驩,河川魚類棲地分佈之推估與分析研究--以卑南溪新武呂河段為例,國立中央大學碩士論文,(2002)。
    淡江大學,石門水庫水權水量之分析及研究檢討, (2008)。
    經濟部水利署,台灣地區水資源開發綱領計畫,網址 http://hysearch.wra.gov.tw/wra_ext/WaterInfo/wrproj/main/main.htm,(1996)。
    新浪網,新浪網全球新聞,網址http://dailynews.sina.com/bg/news/int/int/chinesedaily/20110603/00002497130.html,(2011)。
    謝識予,經濟博奕論,復旦大學出版社,上海,(2010)。

    下載圖示 校內:2013-08-23公開
    校外:2014-08-23公開
    QR CODE