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研究生： 李昶皚
Lee, Chang-Kai
論文名稱： An FNN with Adaptive Learning Capability for Predicting Chaotic Time Series
An FNN with Adaptive Learning Capability for Predicting Chaotic Time Series
指導教授： 吳植森
Wu, Chih-Sen
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 資訊管理研究所
Institute of Information Management
論文出版年： 2005
畢業學年度： 93
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 40
中文關鍵詞： 模糊類神經網路 、網路過適化 、證據架構
外文關鍵詞： Overfitting effect, Evidence framework, Fuzzy neural network
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    • 本研究針對模糊類神經網路來發展一套適應性學習演算法，用以解決類神經網路學習過程中的兩個重要議題：如何減少模糊類神經網路過適化現象，與其所造成準確率下降的問題。本研究提出配置證據架構的方法來減少模糊類神經網路過適化現象，加上其擁有倒傳遞學習機制，所以能夠有效提高模糊類神經網路的性能，即在學習過程的每一次迭代中，能夠權衡最小化期望錯誤值或模式複雜度來決定出適當的學習權重。最後透過一些模擬結果來展示本研究所建立的方法是一個有效的方法。

    An adaptive learning algorithm for adapting fuzzy neural networks is developed in the study to deal with two important issues in the machine learning process: how to reduce the overfitting effect and how to improve the accuracy of prediction of fuzzy neural networks. This approach is able to reduce the overfitting effect with evidence framework, and to enhance fuzzy neural networks with backpropagation learning mechanism, i.e., determining the learning weight which is a trade-off by minimizing the mean error or decreasing the model complexity at each iteration of learning process. Finally, several simulations are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

    CHINESE ABSTRACT I ABSTRACT II ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF FIGURES VI LIST OF TABLES VII CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND 1 1.2 RESEARCH MOTIVATION 3 1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 3 1.4 RESEARCH LIMITATIONS 4 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 5 2.1 THE BACKPROPAGATION ALGORITHM 5 2.2 THE EVIDENCE FRAMEWORK 6 2.2.1 Regression Problem 6 2.2.2 Classification Problem 10 2.3 THE FNN ARCHITECTURE 11 2.3.1 Fuzzy Logic System 11 2.3.2 The FALCON Model 14 2.3.3 Generating Fuzzy Rules From Numerical Data 21 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH APPROACH 23 3.1 THE RESEARCH ARCHITECTURE 23 3.2 MACKEY-GLASS TIME SERIES PREDICTION 24 3.3 AN FNN DESIGNED FOR PREDICTION PROBLEMS 25 3.3.1 The FNN Architecture 25 3.3.2 The Structure Learning Phase for FNN 28 3.3.3 The Parameter Learning Phase for FNN 28 3.3.4 Model Fitness Adaption 31 CHAPTER 4 SIMULATIONS 32 4.1 AN NN WITHOUT THE EVIDENCE FRAMEWORK 32 4.2 AN NN WITH THE EVIDENCE FRAMEWORK 33 4.3 AN FNN WITHOUT THE EVIDENCE FRAMEWORK 34 4.4 AN FNN WITH THE EVIDENCE FRAMEWORK 34 4.5 DISCUSSION 35 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 36 References 37

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