過去文獻探討外人直接投資(foreign direct investment, FDI)與經濟成長的關係多以總體經濟或個別產業的角度切入，探討FDI在一國之或單一產業上的影響。但這樣的估計方式可能忽略了FDI 的外溢效果與各產業間的聯動關係。若沒有將行業間的聯動關係亦考慮進去，則可能錯估FDI 所帶來的影響，且政府在制定政策時亦無法全面評估FDI 的效果。本文利用我國跨產業資料，並藉著全球向量自我迴歸(global vector autoregression, GVAR)模型刻劃外溢效果，以探討(1)當我國電子產業的FDI 成長率發生負向衝擊，以及(2) 各產業皆受到全球性負向衝擊，對我國各產業的產出、總工時以及FDI的影響與動態效果。

實證模型結果顯示：當我國電子產業的FDI成長率發生負向衝擊時，各產業的產出成長率皆受到負向影響，說明產業間產出確實存在聯動關係。勞動成長率亦有相同趨勢。其中以重工業與金融保險業受到的影響最為劇烈；輕工業則是影響最不顯著的產業。而在生產要素的部分，各產業的FDI成長率受到的影響相對於各產業的勞動成長率較不顯著。推測原因為勞動是可變動成本，在企業受到衝擊時，較容易減少勞動量以減少營運成本。

全球性負向衝擊對我國各產業的產出成長率與就業量成長率上的影響則較為立即，各產業受到衝擊後都能快速反應。而FDI成長率受到的影響則較劇烈，由於跨國企業對我國各產業的FDI投資較容易受到全球景氣的影響，因此FDI變動幅度亦相對較大。其中亦以重工業與電子產業及金融及保險業的影響較為顯著，尤其是金融與保險業的FDI成長率受到的影響最大，回復期數亦較長。而輕工業與批發及零售業受到的影響則最小。可能是跨國企業在進行投資時主要考量為全球的經濟情勢，在全球經濟狀況不佳時投資意願會降低，並回收資金，以降低投資風險。

The goal of this study is to evaluate the impacts and dynamic effects on industrial output, working hours, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the following two scenarios: (i) negative impact of real FDI growth rate in Taiwan electronic industry occurred, and (ii) all industries in Taiwan were under the global negative impact. This research was developed with Taiwan industrial-level dataset by using the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to capture the spillover effects.

The empirical results show that real output growth rate for each industry was positively correlated with the impact of real FDI growth rate in Taiwan electronic industry. It indicates that there is a cross-sectional dependence over various industries. Among all the industries, the output of the heavy industry and the financial and insurance industry were affected the most, and the outputs of light industry were the least affected. Furthermore, the employment growth rate tended to show a similar trend as well. However, in the aspect of productive input, the influence of real FDI growth rate is relatively less than the labor growth rate. The possible explanation for this phenomenon is that the variable costs of labor is relatively easier to reduce while the enterprise is under negative impacts.

In contrast, the effects of reducing electronic industry FDI and global negative impacts were different on industrial output in Taiwan. The influence on industrial output in Taiwan caused by global negative impact is relatively faster but with shorter response period. However, the employment growth rate and industrial output in Taiwan responded similar to the global negative impact. Global shock had higher association with most industry real FDI growth rate in Taiwan compared to the influence caused by Taiwan industry shock. One potential reason is that multinational enterprises reduce the investment and withdraw the funds to lower the risk during the global economic depression.

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