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研究生: 莊誠奉
Chuang, Cheng-Feng
論文名稱: 有序診斷資料分群之尤登指數與切點估計
The estimation of Youden index and associated cut-points for ordinal diagnostic groups
指導教授: 蘇佩芳
Su, Pei-Fang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 59
中文關鍵詞: 肺高壓尤登指數最佳切點有序多組臨床診斷
外文關鍵詞: pulmonary hypertension, Youden index, optimal cut-points, multi-class, clinical diagnostic
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  • 本論文的研究動機是來自於一組肺高壓嚴重分級的診斷問題,因為偵測肺高壓的黃金標準是需要侵入性的檢查,如果能夠運用替代且非侵入性的診斷工具,尋找最佳切點來進行分群,將可嘉惠患者。因此,本研究提出針對多組的連續型分群資料的統計方法,在已知有序連續型資料且已知可分成若干群之下,我們發展在不同的母體分配假設下,運用最大化尤登指數的概念來尋找最佳切點。接著,本研究也利用蒙地卡羅模擬,來探討不同分布假設下切點估計的表現。最後,為了讓容易應用在實際臨床診斷上,設計出一個shiny 互動式介面,利用肺高壓嚴重分級當成例子說明提出方法的應用。

    Many important clinical problems more than two category outcomes, for example, investigating the severity of pulmonary hypertension (PH). Luo and Xiong (2013) developed the Youden index to assess diagnostic accuracy when there are three ordinal diagnostic groups and presented the parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate the optimal Youden index, as well as the underlying optimal cut-points and the associated confidence intervals. This thesis extends the concept of Luo and Xiong. We purpose the statistical method to estimate Youden index and calculate the optimal cut-points based on the pre-specified distribution, normal, gamma, lognormal assumption, for multiple groups. Moreover, a Shiny interface is designed, taking the severity of PH as an example to illustrate the application of the proposed method.

    摘要 i 英文延伸摘要 ii 誌謝 vii 目錄 viii 表目錄 x 圖目錄 xi 第一章. 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究架構 3 第二章. 文獻回顧 5 2.1 二分類模型評估指標 5 2.2 有序性多分類模型評估指標 8 2.3 有序分類模型之尤登指數與切點估計 10 2.4 C50 決策樹 12 第三章. 統計方法 14 3.1 符號定義 14 3.2 有序多組之尤登指數與切點估計 15 3.2.1 常態分配估計法 16 3.2.2 Gamma 分配估計法 17 3.2.3 對數常態分配估計法 18 第四章. 統計模擬 20 4.1 模擬過程 20 4.2 模擬資料 21 4.2.1 定義資料變數 21 4.2.2 資料參數設定 21 4.3 模擬結果 - 與Luo 和Xiong(2013) 方法比較 25 4.4 模擬結果 - 敏感度分析 28 4.5 模擬結果 - 與C50 決策樹比較 30 第五章. 資料分析 31 5.1 敘述統計 31 5.2 分析結果 32 5.3 R dashboard 互動式介面 34 第六章. 結論與建議 39 6.1 結論 39 6.2 研究限制與未來方向 40 參考文獻 41 附錄A. 數學推導 42 A.1 常態分布 42 A.2 對數常態分布 45 附錄B. 模擬參數設定 48 附錄C. 模擬結果呈現 50 C.1 第一部分 - 與Luo & Xiong 估計方法比較 50 C.2 第二部分 - 敏感度分析 54 C.3 第三部分 - 與C50 決策樹方法比較 58

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