隨著全球化的發展、電子商務的興盛與科技進步發達，當零售商在配銷通路中販售短生命週期商品，除需面對品質好、交期短、彈性大與成本低的產品需求外，主要面對之議題是末端需求的不確定性。而在供應鏈的協商機制中，製造商可用退貨政策向零售商買回銷售季節結束後尚未賣出的商品，以分擔零售商超額訂購的風險，然而由於退貨成本日益高漲，零售商仍需承擔部份的損失。因此在現今競爭激烈的市場環境中，零售商必須謹慎決定最佳的定價與訂購量，以避免過多的損失。在過去供應鏈的相關研究中，所探討的內容大多以「期望利潤最大化」或是「成本最小化」為考量因素，即建立在決策者為風險中立的情況，然而當發生一些人為事故，或是遭受天災、恐怖攻擊等意外災害時，往往會造成整個供應鏈的損害，此時供應鏈決策者關心風險的程度更甚於所賺取利潤的多寡。有鑒於此，本研究引入條件風險值，在末端需求不確定的情況下，作為風險衡量的概念，探討一個二階層的供應鏈系統，由具有退貨政策的製造商與雙頭寡占的零售商所組成，藉由最佳化條件風險值，期使在不同風險趨避程度下，幫助管理人員制定合理的決策，以更符合現況。

　　Under demand uncertainty in a newsboy model, assumption of risk-neutrality seems to be inadequate when demand variation is too high. The decision makers may pay more attention to risk than expected return. As a means to measure risk, conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is incorporated in the thesis to appraise the risk averse attitude. This research considers a two-echelon supply chain with short life-cycle products. A manufacturer provides a return policy to duopoly retailers who face uncertain demand. By optimizing the retailers' CVaR of profit to determine and analyze the manufacturer's return policy, as well as the retailers' pricing and ordering policies.

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