我們認為在廣告支出增加的情況下，管理上的過度自信可以解釋提升廣告支出對公司長期績效是有影響的。先前的研究注重廣告本身能不能有效提升公司長期的績效，然而Aaker發現公司內部負責預算決策的經理人在廣告是否有效中扮演非常重要的角色。
我們使用兩種方法，分別將從ExecuComp收集1992年至2011年的樣本進行分群。第一種是根據Malmndier and Tate 提出的Holder67將樣本分成過度自信及不過度自信兩群。第二種則是根據Campell等人的方法，將樣本分成高度過度自信、適度過度自信、低度過度自信三群。分組後再將廣告支出超過一定金額的公司列入樣本，使用日曆異常效果測量公司異常報酬、測試過度自信因子是否對於公司長期績效有正向影響的假設。
根據兩種不同的分組方式進行測驗後，我們發現廣告支出的增加確實可以提升公司長期績效，但是過度自信因子，在整個樣本中並未出現顯著的影響效果。

We argue that managerial overconfidence can account for long-term performance following advertising expenditure increases. Prior studies investigated that whether the advertising itself could be effective to improve the firms’ performance or not. However, Aaker discovered that the firm manager who decides the budget amount for advertising plays an important role on effectiveness of the advertising.
We follow two ways to group our samples into different segments. The one is Holder 67 proposed by Malmndier and Tate to define whether the CEOs are overconfident or not from ExecuComp 1992 to 2011. The other one follows Campell et al. to divide our sample into three categories; they are high optimism, moderate optimism and low optimism. Then, we use calendar time abnormal return method to test the overconfidence hypothesis. We will classify the sample firms which are considered to increase their advertising expenditure by a significant amount. Lastly, we will compare the coefficient between these groups. As we expected, CEOs’ overconfidence is positively related.
After clarifying our samples by Holder 67 as well as exercising options with moneyness between 30% and 100%, we conclude that when advertising intensity is at least 5%, CEOs with overconfidence would improve the firms’ long-term stock performance. However, the variable overconfidence does not have too much impact on overall samples.

Alicke, M. D., M. L. Klotz, et al. (1995). "Personal Contact, Individuation, and the Better-Than-Average Effect." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 68(5): 804-825.
Bertrand, M., & Schoar, A. (2003). Managing with style: The effect of managers on firm policies. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1169-1208.
Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101(3), 695-712.
Chuang, W. I. and R. Susmel (2011). "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors." Journal of Banking & Finance 35(7): 1626-1644.
Daniel, K., D. Hirshleifer, et al. (1998). "Investor psychology and security market under- and overreactions." Journal of Finance 53(6): 1839-1885.
Donthu, N. (1992). Comparative Advertising Intensity. Journal of Advertising Research, 32(6), 53-58.
Gervais, S. and T. Odean (2001). "Learning to be overconfident." Review of Financial Studies 14(1): 1-27.
Goel, A. M. and A. V. Thakor (2008). "Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance." Journal of Finance 63(6): 2737-2784.
Gupta, V. K. (1980). Factors Determining Interindustry Differences in Advertising Intensity - Canadian Manufacturing. Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 20(3), 60-76.
Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., & Teoh, S. H. (2002). Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(1), 139-209.
Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., & Subrahmanyam, A. (1998). Investor psychology and security market under- and overreactions. Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1839-1885.
Daniel, K. D., Hirshleifer, D., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2001). Overconfidence, arbitrage, and equilibrium asset pricing. Journal of Finance, 56(3), 921-965.
Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992). The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24(3), 411-435.
Keller, K. L., S. E. Heckler, et al. (1998). "The effects of brand name suggestiveness on advertising recall." Journal of Marketing 62(1): 48-+.
Malmendier, U. and G. Tate (2005). "CEO overconfidence and corporate investment." Journal of Finance 60(6): 2661-2700.
Malmendier, U. and G. Tate (2005). "Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited." European Financial Management 11(5): 649-659.
Malmendier, U., G. Tate, et al. (2011). "Overconfidence and Early-Life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies." Journal of Finance 66(5): 1687-1733.
Malmendier, U., G. Tate, et al. (2004). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. NBER working paper series working paper 10807. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research,.
Malmendier, U., G. Tate, et al. (2007). Corporate financial policies with overconfident managers. NBER working paper series working paper 13570. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research,.
Malmendier, U., G. Tate, et al. (2010). Managerial beliefs and corporate financial policies. NBER working paper series working paper 15659. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research,.
Mavrommati, A., & Papadopoulos, A. (2005). Measuring advertising intensity and intangible capital in the Greek food industry. Applied Economics, 37(15), 1777-1787.
McKay-Nesbitt, J., Manchanda, R. V., Smith, M. C., & Huhmann, B. A. (2011). Effects of age, need for cognition, and affective intensity on advertising effectiveness. Journal of Business Research, 64(1), 12-17.
Meisel, J. B. (1979). Demand and Supply Determinants of Advertising Intensity among Convenience Goods. Southern Economic Journal, 46(1), 233-243.
Miller, R. A. (1969). Market Structure and Industrial Performance - Relation of Profit Rates to Concentration, Advertising Intensity, and Diversity. Journal of Industrial Economics, 17(2), 104-118.
Moore, D. J., & Harris, W. D. (1996). Affect intensity and the consumer's attitude toward high impact emotional advertising appeals. Journal of Advertising, 25(2), 37-50.
Mela, C. F., S. Gupta, et al. (1997). "The long-term impact of promotion and advertising on consumer brand choice." Journal of Marketing Research 34(2): 248-261.
Ng, D., R. Westgren, et al. (2009). "Competitive Blind Spots in an Institutional Field." Strategic Management Journal 30(4): 349-369.
Rotemberg, J. J., & Saloner, G. (2000). Visionaries, managers, and strategic direction. Rand Journal of Economics, 31(4), 693-716.
Simon, M. and S. M. Houghton (2003). "The relationship between overconfidence and the introduction of risky products: Evidence from a field study." Academy of Management Journal 46(2): 139-149.
Srinivasan, S., K. Pauwels, et al. (2009). "Product Innovations, Advertising, and Stock Returns." Journal of Marketing 73(1): 24-43.
Weinberg, C. B. and D. L. Weiss (1982). "On the Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales." Journal of Marketing Research 19(4): 585-591.