本研究旨在探討中美關稅戰持續深化的背景下，馬來西亞是否由傳統「避險（hedging）」策略逐步轉向「柔性平衡（soft balancing）」，並分析此一戰略調整對東協中小型國家外交與經濟治理的意涵。隨著中美競爭由貿易衝突擴展至科技、供應鏈及地緣政治層面，馬來西亞作為東協重要成員，在經濟高度依賴中國、市場安全仍倚重美國的雙重結構下，必須持續調整其政經發展策略，以維持國家利益與戰略自主。

本研究以新自由制度主義與結構現實主義為主要理論基礎，結合避險理論與柔性平衡理論，採歷史分析法與個案研究法，從外交政策、經貿合作、供應鏈重組及區域制度參與等面向，分析馬來西亞於中美競爭下的政策演變，並透過RCEP、CPTPP、IPEF及東協等制度平台，探討其對外策略之調整方向。

研究結果顯示，馬來西亞的重心自避險策略轉移，在維持經濟合作與安全平衡的基礎上，逐步展現柔性平衡的特徵。其具體表現包括積極運用區域多邊制度降低對單一大國的依賴、推動出口市場與供應鏈多元化、深化與不同國家的經濟合作，以及在外交政策上持續強調「不選邊站」與戰略自主。此一策略已由過去偏重風險分散的被動避險，逐漸轉向透過制度合作、多邊參與及經濟布局提升國家自主性的積極平衡模式。

本研究認為，中美競爭並未迫使馬來西亞在兩大強權間作出二元選擇，而是促使其透過制度運用與策略調適，在維持避險基礎上逐步形成柔性平衡的新型政經策略。本研究除補充避險與柔性平衡理論於東南亞中小型國家的適用性外，亦深化新自由制度主義對中小國運用國際制度維護戰略自主之解釋，並為理解東協國家於中美競爭下的政策調適與區域治理提供新的分析視角。

This study examines whether Malaysia's foreign economic strategy has gradually shifted from the traditional approach of hedging toward soft balancing amid the intensifying China–U.S. tariff war. As strategic competition between China and the United States has expanded beyond trade disputes to encompass technology, supply chains, and geopolitics, Malaysia has faced increasing pressure to adjust its political and economic strategies while maintaining stable relations with both major powers. Given its deep economic ties with China and long-standing security cooperation with the United States, Malaysia has sought to preserve its national interests through a more flexible and adaptive foreign policy.

This study adopts historical analysis and case study methods to examine Malaysia's policy evolution in response to China–U.S. strategic competition. The analysis focuses on foreign policy, economic and trade cooperation, supply chain restructuring, and participation in regional economic frameworks, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), in order to explore the adjustment of Malaysia's external strategy.

The findings indicate that Malaysia has transferred its traditional hedging strategy. Instead, while maintaining a balance between economic cooperation and security interests, it has increasingly demonstrated the characteristics of soft balancing. This transformation is reflected in its efforts to diversify export markets and supply chains, deepen economic cooperation with multiple partners, reduce dependence on any single major power through multilateral economic frameworks, and consistently uphold a foreign policy of non-alignment. Compared with its previous emphasis on passive risk diversification, Malaysia has gradually adopted a more proactive strategy that strengthens national resilience through institutional cooperation, multilateral engagement, and economic diversification.

This study argues that intensifying China–U.S. competition has not compelled Malaysia to choose between the two major powers. Rather, it has encouraged Malaysia to develop a more flexible political and economic strategy that combines the traditional logic of hedging with the characteristics of soft balancing. The findings enrich the understanding of strategic adjustment by middle and small powers under great-power competition and provide a new perspective on how Malaysia responds to changes in the regional and international political economy.

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