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研究生: 林莲英
Virliyani, Indri
論文名稱: The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices the Case of Indonesia
The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices the Case of Indonesia
指導教授: 楊曉瑩
Yang, Ann-Shawing
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 57
外文關鍵詞: Housing price, macroeconomics, Vector autoregression, impulse response analysis.
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  • The focus of this research is to find out the dynamic impact of the housing market with macroeconomic variables. Using seven macroeconomics variables (inflation, FDI, GDP, exchange rate, money supply, interest rate and stock market) the study period of this research is from 1994-2008.
    First finding in our study using the impulse response analysis is that the shocks in housing price does not produces any significant effect in any macroeconomics variables in this research. The shocks in housing price will only creates a minor negative effect on inflation, gross domestic product, money supply and interest rate in the short run. Meanwhile, it creates a positive effect on exchange rate, stock market and foreign direct investment in the short run. The VDC suggest that among all the macroeconomic variables selected, only SBI and GDP which have enough contribution to the variation of HPI.
    Meanwhile in the short run the HPI will reacts negatively on the INF shocks, and the HPI contributes around 4-6% of the INF shocks. In the short run the HPI will reacts negatively on the EXC shocks but and the HPI contributes around 6-10% of the EXC rate shocks. In the short run the HPI will reacts negatively on the GDP shocks, and reacts positively in the medium run and the HPI contributes around 0.2-3.9% of the GDP shocks. In the short run the HPI will reacts positively on the FDI shocks, and the HPI contributes around 2.6-6.4% of the FDI shocks. In the short run the HPI will reacts positively on the MS shocks but in the medium run the reactions will fluctuate and the HPI contributes around 1.5-4.1% of the MS shocks. In the short run the HPI will reacts negatively on the SBI shocks, and reacts positively in the medium run and the HPI contributes around 7.7-10.6% of the EXC rate shocks. In the short run until medium run the HPI will reacts positively on the IHSG shocks, and the HPI contributes around 46-50% of the IHSG shocks.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I ABSTRACT II TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLES VI LIST OF FIGURES VII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background and Motivation. 1 1.1.1 Indonesian Economy. 3 1.1.2 Indonesian Property Market. 4 1.2 Research Objectives and Contributions. 6 1.2.1 Conceptual Model. 7 1.3 Hypotheses Development. 7 1.3.1 Relationship between Inflation and Housing Price. 7 1.3.2 Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Housing Price. 8 1.3.3 Relationship between Exchange Rate and Housing Price. 9 1.3.4 Relationship between Gross Domestic Product and Housing Price 10 1.3.5 Relationship between Money Supply and Housing Price. 11 1.3.6 Relationship between Interest Rate and Housing Price. 12 1.3.7 Relationship between Stock Market and Housing Price. 12 1.4 Research Structure. 13 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 15 2.1 Housing Market and Economic Crisis. 15 2.2 Housing Industry and Macroeconomics. 17 2.3 Arbitrage Pricing Theory. 20 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 21 3.1 Model and Estimation. 21 3.1.1 Descriptive Statistics. 21 3.1.2 Pearson Correlation Analysis. 21 3.1.3 Vector Autoregression Analysis 22 3.2. Description of Exploratory Variables. 25 3.2.1 Description of Variables. 25 3.2.2 Source of the Data. 30 CHAPTER FOUR RESULTS OF ANALYSIS 31 4.1 Descriptive Analysis 31 4.2 Pearson Correlation Analysis 32 4.3 Stationary test. 33 4.4 Impulse Responses. 35 4.5 Variance Decomposition. 43 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 52 5.1. Discussion. 52 5.1.1 Theoretical Implications. 52 5.2 Limitations and Future Directions. 54 REFERENCES 55

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