自2002年起原物料之需求在世界經濟成長下不斷增加，間接影響國際散裝海運運價指數使得運費指數居高不下，2008年下半年由於全球景氣受到次貸風暴衝擊，海運市場亦隨著景氣衰退，大幅度下跌。因此對海運業者來說，海運運費的暴漲報跌增加了營運不確定性與風險。因此，如果能瞭解影響運價的因素，就能對市場參與者的經營決策提供重要的參考資訊，有效降低其營運的風險。
本文利用榖類、鐵礦砂、煤炭及鋼製品對海岬型、巴拿極限型與極限適宜型散裝貨輪6個月期論時傭船佣金為變數，藉由向量自我迴歸模型（vector autoregression; VAR）及向量修正誤差模型(Vector Error Correction Model; VECM Model)來探討榖類、鐵礦砂、煤炭及鋼製品等運量與海岬型、巴拿極限型與極限適宜型散裝貨輪6個月期論時傭船佣金間之連動關係，藉由實證剖析不同船型的傭船費用是否有長期均衡現象，以及各個船型的傭船費率變動與所運送貨物的運載量變動是否有長期均衡現象。更進一步探討運送貨物運量在落後幾期下會影響單一船型的租金費率及各變數間的因果關係，本研究得到幾項結論如下：（1）單根檢定顯示所研究的變數之時間序列，呈現非定態序(Non-stationary)；經一次差分後變數之時間序列呈現定態時間序列。（2）Johansen共整合檢定與VAR(VECM)，顯示三種船型之論時傭船租金間存在長期均衡關係。（3）因果關係檢定(Granger Causality Test) ，顯示海岬型傭船費率居於影響其他船型運費的地位，且具有單向因果關係。

The demand for the raw materials is increasing constantly under the development in economy of the world in 2002, influence the freight rate with international dry bulk market; make the international freight rate remain high. Due to the crisis of Subprime mortgage, the economy of the marine shipping industry continues recession rapidly from the second half of the 2008. However, shipping industry still faces relatively high risks, coming mainly from the volatile freight rates. As such, knowing the factors attributable to the volatility of freight rates will greatly enhance the profitability of the market participants.
This research regards capsize 6 month timecharter rate, panamax 6 month timecharter rate, handysize 6 month timecharter rate, and raw materials as the research variables, the methodology are Vector Auto-regression and Vector Error Correction Model. The finding on this paper could be summarized as: (1) empirical tests of all variables are non-stationary. However, they are all stationary after using first difference. (2) Johansen co-integration and VAR（VECM）test is discovered that the ship price followed capsize 6 month timecharter rate, panamax 6 month timecharter rate, and handysize 6 month timecharter rate with one common stochastic trend. (3)The panamax 6 month timecharter rate and handysize 6 month timecharter rate are Granger Cause by capsize 6 month timecharter rate.

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