古蹟及歷史建築擁有不可再現的重要價值，為了將寶貴資產的災害風險降至可控制範圍，目前在國際間的發展大致可分為性能式設計與建築防火管理兩個層面，其中性能式設計可透過防火基礎資料模擬古蹟火災潛勢，以積極有效的防火管理手段降低古蹟遭受火害的風險，本文則為現況之風險分析。
本研究以「日式木構造建築火災延燒潛勢預測模型之建構」為研究主題，以台南市定古蹟-原台南愛國婦人會館作為調查基礎，研析古蹟及歷史建築火場模擬之重建要素，透過本土古蹟及歷史建築個案調查，分析日式木構造之可燃物種類、數量及分佈，並進行可燃物之熱性質分析實驗，以作為建立FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator)火災潛勢預估模擬之重要參數依據。
本研究得知，火災初期之發展速度非常迅速，而模擬結果較實際實驗結果在火災初期之發展呈現延遲現象，延遲現象與火源之成長趨勢有相當大的關係，若僅憑模擬結果預測火災潛勢，易造成火災危險度之低估。但由FDS與實驗結果分析後，其火災成長趨勢、偵煙器與撒水頭之作動時間趨勢大致相同。

This research aims at modelling the potential fire hazard of Japanese wooden buildings. The basic investigation of the qualified Tainan City Heritage, Former Tainan patriotic woman hall, was conducted for analyzing the main factors of fire hazard, including the types, quantities and distribution of the flammable materials. Several experiments were conducted to analyze the thermal specifics of the flammable materials of which were main parameters for modelling the prediction of fire hazard. According to this research, it was found that fire developed rapidly at the initial stage based on the actual experiment. Nevertheless, the simulating results revealed delay of time for the fire development. It could be underestimated for the fire hazard while depending merely on the simulation. For the fire developing trends, acting time of smoke detectors and sprinklers, the results of predicting simulations and actual experiments achieve a great agreement.

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