本研究首先蒐集影響國際黃金價格的因素，再觀察台灣黃金交易現狀及整理黃金衍生性金融商品種類。並藉由過往二十年的黃金歷史價格，計算黃金價格波動率及繪製黃金價格機率模型。使用計算而得的黃金價格波動率，搭配Black-Scholes選擇權定價公式及邊界元素法，繪製在不同的假設之下黃金商品的機率密度函數圖形，並計算消費者購買台灣交易所的黃金選擇權商品及民間金融機構推出的黃金衍生性金融商品所負擔之風險。最後參考交易市場現況討論本研究結果之合理性及其應用。

This study investigates the factors that affect the international gold price, and observes the trading status of Taiwan gold and arranges the categories of gold derivative financial instruments. We calculated gold price volatility and plotted the price of gold probability models based on the gold prices of the past two decades. Using calculated gold price volatility with the Black-Scholes option pricing formula and boundary element method draws the probability density function graph of gold instruments under different assumptions, and then calculates the risk for consumers to buy gold option instruments of Taiwan Stock Exchange and the derivative financial instruments of private financial institutions. Finally, this study discusses the rationality and application of the results based on the status of market.

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