摘要

本論文主要是提出一個模糊程度估測模型應用在專案排程管理上，藉著FQFD 和 FAHP 的整合應用，求出每一個專案工作的模糊程度，在本文中專案的不確定性是藉由和專案特徵相關的危機程度來衡量，其專案特徵包含作業時間限制、作業開始時間、預算、人力資源、技術困難度和儀器需求。
模糊完成時間估測模型是根據模糊程度所發展出來的一套法則，並藉由該法則衍生出模糊甘特圖，一般來說，在模糊排程的方法裡，只要解模糊化後，專案作業的模糊特性便會無法呈現於甘特圖中，但在模糊甘特圖裡，專案作業的模糊特性仍可被保留在圖上，方便管理者直接從圖中了解每個專案作業的模糊特性，以利進一步的作業管理。模糊程度和模糊完成時間評估法可以應用在模糊關鍵鏈排程之緩衝管理上，本文利用模糊程度妥善安排專案緩衝時間，以及設定最大專案滲透時間做為時程管理指標來提醒專案管理者需警覺性地盡速完成專案目標，使專案管理者得以妥善地控制專案。模糊完成時間評估法及其在模糊關鍵鏈上的應用是一套穩健可靠的專案排程方法，可有效地提昇專案管理效益。

Abstract

This thesis is to develop the new fuzzy finish time estimation model for project scheduling management. With the application of the fuzzy quality function deployment (FQFD) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), the degree of fuzziness for every project activity is calculated by considering of project uncertainties: project time limit, project activity begin time, project budget, manpower, technological difficulty, and facility requirements. Degree of fuzziness is an index to represent the relative fuzziness (uncertainty) of project activity. The larger the degree of fuzziness of activity is, the higher possibility for uncertainty to happen, which means longer activity duration, larger budget…etc. A new fuzzy Gantt chart is further developed by degree of fuzziness. In fuzzy scheduling, fuzzy characteristic of activity is lost after defuzzification, but in the proposed fuzzy Gantt chart, it is remained on the chart visually by which project manager can manage every activity conveniently. Fuzzy finish time estimation model can be applied in fuzzy critical chain to better manage project buffer. Based on the degree of fuzziness of every activity on the critical chain, the maximum allowable penetration level is proposed as a warning mechanism for project manager to monitor the project. Because of its simplicity and practical usability, project managers are very benefited by using fuzzy finish time estimation model in project management.

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