氣候變遷使洪災風險不斷提升，聯合國氣候變化綱要公約於 2006 年針對沿海地
區將減災策略分為保護、適應、以及後撤性三種調適策略。其中，後撤策略因涉及各
項成本因此過去接受度低。然而因應氣候變遷不確定性，各國開始提倡管理型後撤以
培養更具抗災能力的沿海社區，國際多針對後撤對生態發展面積之影響、乃至對海岸
災害改善效果進行研究以支持後撤推動，然而較少針對不同後撤手法對災害風險之改
善效果進行量化評估。而我國則多基於莫拉克風災重建，關於後撤的研究著重在政策
推動困境等。雖然現行 2017 年《整體海岸管理計畫》中的海岸防護區策略建議與國
際管理型後撤內涵相近。但國內於氣候變遷災害衝擊預測，也多僅針對未來氣候變遷
情境，較無考量政策對土地利用、乃至對災害風險之影響。
故本研究嘗試從後撤「管理強度」與「管理空間範圍」切入探討，藉由風險評估
比較不同後撤管理方式差異性。透過建構推動不同後撤策略之土地利用模型，探究不
同後撤規範對未來土地利用分布情形、以及其降低沿海地區災害風險之成效，期望可
以得出較合適的土地管理方式和範圍，藉以給予政策建議。以嘉義縣東石鄉與布袋鎮
為驗證範圍，藉由文獻回顧後撤策略實施方法、後撤策略與居民接受度相關研究、以
及國內外沿海風險區與調適策略管理案例等，設計不同後撤性規範模擬情境。進而選
用國際常用三種轉移潛力土地利用變遷模型，進行過去土地型態預測與驗證後，選擇
最適模型納入不同後撤規範模擬情境，藉由 2006 年以及 2014 年國土利用調查資料來
模擬 2050 年土地利用型態，並將空間分佈結果進行淹水風險評估與比較分析。
研究結果顯示，若未來研究地區無相關政策干預，依過去趨勢持續發展，則將繼
續吸引新發展，將增加洪災風險。同時，進行後撤範圍調整並依受災程度實施不同管
制之後撤分區，與於現行一級海岸防護區實施最高後撤強度情境之風險改善成效相當。
此結果顯示，以一級海岸防護區進行後撤強管制的範圍可能較不足，致使地區韌性不
一定足夠。透過洪水管制範圍的調整，後撤可與多種調適策略合作抵禦受災衝擊並呈
現良好效果。藉由本研究模擬及淹水風險評估了解不同後撤管理方式與範圍之風險改
善效益，用以及早擬定與調整氣候變遷下土地調適相關政策、以及災害治理之參考。

Climate change has increased the risk of flood disasters. Recent studies have found that land use changes caused by the Retreat strategy can reduce the risk of coastal disasters. However, there are still few studies that evaluate the improvement of different Retreat methods on disaster risk. Therefore, this study attempts to discuss the "management intensity" and "management range" of Retreat, compares the different Retreat management methods through risk assessment. Explore the future land use distribution of different Retreat methods and effectiveness of reducing disaster risks by constructing a land use model under different scenarios of Retreat. It is expected that a more suitable land management method and scope can be obtained.
This study selected Dongshi and Budai township in Chiayi County as the study area. First, reviewing the definition of the Retreat and the case of international coastal management, to design different Retreat simulation scenarios. Then, using transition potential modeling of land-cover to the simulation of land use patterns in 2050, and the spatial distribution results were evaluated for flood risk.
The research results show that if there is no policy intervention in the study area, it will attract new development and may increase the risk of flooding. At the same time, the scenario of adjusting the retreat range and implementing different control levels according to flood risk level are equivalent to the scenario of the highest level of Retreat in the firstlevel coastal protection zone. This means that the scope of the highest-level Retreat in the first-level coastal protection zone may be insufficient, resulting in insufficient regional resilience. Through the adjustment of the flood management area, the Retreat strategy can have a good effect on risk reduction in cooperation with other strategies. Based on the results of this research, policies related to land adaptation under climate change can be formulated and adjusted.

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