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研究生: 盧怡珊
Lu, Yi-Shan
論文名稱: 全球行動通訊服務ARPU 曲線之實證分析
Empirical Analysis for ARPU Curves of Global Mobile Communications Services Between 2000 to 2012
指導教授: 黃光渠
Huang, Kuang-Chiu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 電信管理研究所
Institute of Telecommunications Management
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 74
中文關鍵詞: 每人平均貢獻度縱橫資料分析行動通訊產業
外文關鍵詞: ARPU, panel data analysis, mobile communication industry
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  • 在行動通訊市場中,使用人數的增加以及飽和的滲透率顯示出行動服務的普及與高使用率。但是,在行動通訊服務越來越成熟的情況下,全球的ARPU卻是逐年降低。
    許多過去的研究發現,在不同發展狀況中的國家,其電信發展過程與結果也不盡相同。因此本文蒐集了18個國家在13年之間的電信指標與國家相關指標,並將這些國家依據國家狀況分成四個族群-開發中國家、已開發國家、歐洲國家與非歐洲國家。最後再分別利用縱橫資料分析法找出影響行動通訊產業的關鍵影響因素,企圖找出不同狀況的國家是否會有不同的影響分子。
    縱橫資料分析出來的結果顯示先進國家與落後國家相比,其關鍵影響因素較多,主要是因為先進國家的行動服務發展較成熟,行動通訊產業的成長是交由市場機制與監理機關來掌控。而行動語音價格在這四個族群裡都呈現顯著的影響,顯示出服務價格對於業者的收入扮演著重要的角色。
    除了迴歸分析的結果,本文也發現到在2000年到2002年間,每個國家呈現ARPU衰退但滲透率上升的狀況。這是因為新技術的出現、監理機關的價格管制以及全球金融風暴的影響所產生的現象。

    In mobile communication industry, the increasing customer and saturating penetration indicated the universal and high usage rate of mobile service. However, global ARPU is declining under the mature mobile communication service.
    From the past research, countries in different development status will have different result of telecommunication industry. Therefore, this study collects telecom related indexes and demographic indexes of eighteen countries among thirteen years, separating these countries in four groups according to development status. In the end, using panel data analysis respectively to find out the determinants influencing mobile communication industry, and whether different status of countries will have dissimilar factors.
    The panel data analysis results indicated that comparing to emerge countries, advance countries have more key influencing factors. This is because the development of mobile service in advance countries is more mature, the growth of mobile communication industry is determined by market mechanism and NRA. Moreover, RPM presents significant influence in these four groups that represents RPM plays an important role to operators’ revenue.
    In addition to the outcome of regression analysis, this research also discovers a phenomenon that declining ARPU and increasing penetration rate in every country between 2000 to 2002. This is because the emerging new technology, price regulation by NRA and global financial crisis.

    Abstract I 摘要 II List of Contents IV List of Tables VII List of Figures VIII Chapter1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research background 1 1.2 Research motivation 4 1.3 Research objectives 5 1.4 Research process 6 Chapter2 Literature Review 8 2.1 The Development of Mobile Telephony Industry 8 2.1.1 History of mobile communication industry 8 2.1.2 Different telecommunication growth pattern in emerging and advanced countries 9 2.2 Mobile industry indexes 10 2.2.1 ARPU 11 2.2.2 Churn rate 12 2.2.3 Penetration 13 2.2.4 Other factors 13 2.3 Demographic indexes 15 2.3.1 Population 15 2.3.2 GDP 15 2.3.3 Other factors 16 2.4 Panel data 16 2.5 The pricing method in telecommunication industry 17 Chapter3 Research Methodology 19 3.1 Data collection and procedure 19 3.1.1 Data collection 19 3.1.2 Data introduction 20 3.2 Hypotheses 22 3.3 Panel data analysis 23 3.3.1 The introduction of panel data 23 3.3.2 Testing methodology for the model 26 Chapter4 Research Results 27 4.1 Findings of the collected data 27 4.2 Panel data analysis for developed and developing countries 35 4.3 Panel data analysis for Europe and non-Europe countries 39 4.4 Analysis of ARPU and penetration rate curves 42 Chapter5 Conclusion and Implications 46 5.1 Conclusion 46 5.2 Implications 48 Reference 50 Chinese 50 English 51 Appendices 55 Appendix I: Indexes in Australia from 2000 to 2012 55 Appendix II: Indexes in Canada from 2000 to 2012. 56 Appendix III: Indexes in China from 2000 to 2012. 57 Appendix IV: Indexes in France from 2000 to 2012. 58 Appendix V: Indexes in Germany from 2000 to 2012. 59 Appendix VI: Indexes in Indonesia from 2000 to 2012. 60 Appendix VII: Indexes in Italy from 2000 to 2012. 61 Appendix VIII: Indexes in Japan from 2000 to 2012. 62 Appendix IX: Indexes in South Korea from 2000 to 2012. 63 Appendix X: Indexes in Malaysia from 2000 to 2012. 64 Appendix XI: Indexes in Philippine from 2000 to 2012. 65 Appendix XII: Indexes in Poland from 2000 to 2012. 66 Appendix XIII: Indexes in Singapore from 2000 to 2012. 67 Appendix XIV: Indexes in Spain from 2000 to 2012. 68 Appendix XV: Indexes in Taiwan from 2000 to 2012. 69 Appendix XVI: Indexes in Thailand from 2000 to 2012. 70 Appendix XVII: Indexes in United Kingdom from 2000 to 2012. 71 Appendix XVIII: Indexes in United States from 2000 to 2012. 72 Appendix XIX: Telecom related data collected operators 73 Appendix XX: Purchasing Parity Power table 74

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