本研究旨在探討營建與鋼鐵兩個產業之間的前-後關聯性，藉由觀察先行營建業之景氣以預測後行之鋼鐵產業之未來的走勢，以作為經營決策、證券投資與市場分析之參考。實證部分主要係以兩產業之個別加權股價指數報酬與財務比率作為探討產業關聯性的工具，同時本文亦考慮在總體經濟變數的變動下，這兩個產業之間的領先-落後關係可能會隨之改變。研究結果顯示，營建業股價指數報酬顯著領先鋼鐵業之股價指數報酬，證明營建業確實可以帶動鋼鐵業之發展；另外，利用財務比率觀測，本研究所使用的大部份財務比率，實證結果亦支持營建業領先鋼鐵業的說法；然而營建與鋼鐵二產業之領先-落後關係亦會受某些總體經濟變數的干擾而減弱。

This article investigates the leading-lagging relationship between the property and iron & steel industries. This study tries to predict the trend of lagging property industry by examining that of leading iron & steel industry for purpose of the improvement of management decision as well as investment related analysis. Empirically, we use value-weighted stock index returns and the financial ratio to test the between-industry relationship and also expect that the relationship between these industries we concern would change with specific macroeconomic index. Our results show that the property industry index return is the leading indicator of the iron & steel industry consistent with the arguments the prosperous property industry could subsequently promote the iron & steel industry boom. When operating performance used, we find the similar result that the property industry performance is positively correlated with that of lagged iron & steel industry. Besides, the results indicate that the leading-lagging relationships between the two industries discussed above would decline with some macroeconomic indicators.

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