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研究生: 陳沛岑
Chen, Pei-Tsen
論文名稱: 致股東報告書文字情緒對股票市場影響:以台灣 5G 產業為例
The impact of the sentiment of report to shareholders on stock market: The evidence from the 5th generation mobile network companies in Taiwan
指導教授: 黃華瑋
Huang, Hua-Wei
共同指導教授: 李昇暾
Li, Sheng-Tun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accountancy
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 45
中文關鍵詞: 文字探勘情緒分析股票市場機構投資人
外文關鍵詞: Text mining, Sentiment analysis, Stock market, Institution investors
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  • 本研究針對台灣 5G 產業公司之致股東報告書之文字情緒對股票市場影響。研究分成二階段,首先,本研究運用文字探勘方法中的 Bert (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) 模型建立自然語言處理模型,以 Financial PhraseBank 資料集為訓練樣本將 Bert 進行微調。第二,運用經微調後的 Bert 模型剖析台灣 5G 公司之致股東報告書財務績效段落,研究致股東報告書財務績效段落對機構投資人買賣超張數以及個股股票成交量。本研究之實證結果如下,
    (一) 本次模型之測試集準確率達 84%,驗證集準確率達 85%。
    (二) 致股東報告書文字情緒與外資買賣超張數並無顯著相關。
    (三) 致股東報告書文字情緒與投信買賣超張數並無顯著相關。
    (四) 致股東報告書文字情緒與自營商買賣超張數呈顯著負相關。
    (五) 致股東報告書文字情緒與成交量呈顯著正相關。
    (六) 即使增加年度現金流量變化之控制變數,仍維持上述結論。

    綜觀本研究之研究結果,本研究之實證結果顯示,機構投資人交易中,僅自營商買賣超張數與致股東報告書文字情緒呈顯著相關,推論其原因為外資之投資交易策略為長期投資策略,投信之投資交易策略為中期投資策略,故無法於本研究衡量期間財務報告發布當日至前五日中反應。然而,自營商買賣超張數與成交量與致股東報告書文字情緒呈現顯著相關,代表文字情緒確實影響市場中投資人投資交易。

    This study focuses on the impact of the text sentiment of the report to shareholders to the stock markets. First, I apply a Bert (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) model, which is a nature language process model, to construct the construct a text mining model. I use Financial PhraseBank which is a dataset involved lots of financial news and their text sentiment to fine-tune Bert. Moreover, after trying to deploy different hyperparameters, I choose a best model based on validation performance. Next, I analyze the text sentiment of the report to shareholders by the fine-tune Bert model. Finally, taking 5th generation mobile network companies in Taiwan as samples, this study conduct empirical analysis about the impact of the text sentiment in report to shareholders on the institution investors holding and trading volume. The empirical results of this study show that:
    (1) The classification accuracy of the Bert model reaches up to 84%.
    (2) There are no significant impact of sentiment in report to shareholders on foreign investments holding. The research result suggests that the investment strategy of foreign investments is long-term. As a result, we may not find the action of foreign investments in the measurement period.
    (3) There are no significant impact of sentiment in report to shareholders on investment trusts holding. The research result suggests that the investment strategy of investment trusts is mid-term. As a result, we may not find the action of investment trusts in the measurement period.
    (4) There are significant impact of sentiment in report to shareholders on dealer holdings.
    (5) The more positive the report to shareholders are, the stock trading volume will increase.

    摘 要 I Extended Absract II 誌 謝 VI 目 錄 VII 表目錄 IX 圖目錄 X 第一章 導論 1 第二章 文獻回顧與假說發展 3 第一節 文字情緒於財會領域之應用 3 (一) 風險相關應用 3 (二) 市場及財務績效預測 3 第二節 機構投資人相關文獻 4 第三節 假說推演 5 第三章 研究方法 6 第一節 自然語言處理模型 6 (一) 模型選擇 6 (二) Bert 模型介紹 6 (三) 訓練資料及模型參數 7 (四) 機器學習模型評估指標 7 第二節 樣本期間及篩選 8 第三節 迴歸模型及控制變數 10 第四章 研究結果 11 第一節 自然語言模型 11 第二節 迴歸模型 12 (一) 敘述性統計 12 (二) 相關係數 14 (三) 迴歸結果 17 第五章 額外分析 19 第一節 額外分析一修改衡量期間 19 (一) 敘述性統計 19 (二) 相關係數 21 (三) 迴歸結果 24 第二節 額外分析二增加控制變數 27 (一) 敘述性統計 27 (二) 相關係數 29 (三) 迴歸結果 35 第六章 結論 38 第一節 研究結論 38 第二節 研究貢獻及管理意涵 38 第三節 研究限制 39 參考文獻 40 附錄 45

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