本文探討在面臨中美貿易戰、疫情及關稅政策變動等外部總體經濟環境動盪期間，公司管理階層是否透過盈餘管理影響財務資訊品質，藉由美化財務報表以平抑股價波動或掩飾經營不善之問題，進而改變投資人對公司價值的評價與股價表現。本研究檢視2018年-2025年台灣上市櫃公司資料，研究證實盈餘管理與股價之間確實存在顯著正相關。本研究預期首次公開發行之公司為抬高公開發行之股價更有可能藉由盈餘管理意圖影響股價，但此盈餘操縱較難長期維持，導致未來股價表現較差，故於假說二再針對這期間首次公開發行之公司，預期其盈餘管理程度與股價變動呈負向關聯，但實證結果並不支持此假說，顯示首次公開發行在高度資訊不對稱與主管機關嚴格審查並存的環境下，其盈餘管理對股價的影響相對有限，顯示市場在面對新上市公司時較傾向回歸基本面評價。

This study examines the relationship between accrual-based earnings management and stock price changes among Taiwanese listed and over-the-counter firms during a period of macroeconomic uncertainty, including the US–China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and changes in tariff policies. Using firm-year observations from 2018 to 2025, the study investigates whether managers use earnings management to influence investors’ perceptions and stock price performance. In addition, it examines whether the relationship differs for initial public offering (IPO) firms. Earnings management is measured using the absolute value of discretionary accruals estimated from the performance-matched modified Jones model. Regression analyses with industry and year fixed effects are employed, while operating cash flow, earnings per share, firm size, and financial leverage are included as control variables.The results show a significant positive relationship between earnings management and stock price changes, indicating that firms with higher levels of discretionary accruals experience greater stock price changes. This finding is consistent with the information-signaling perspective. However, the negative relationship predicted for IPO firms is not statistically supported. For IPO firms, stock price changes are more closely associated with earnings per share, suggesting that investors and external monitoring mechanisms may limit the influence of earnings management. Additional tests using pre-pandemic observations produce generally consistent results. Overall, the findings indicate that earnings management is associated with stock price movements, although IPO valuations appear to rely more heavily on fundamental earnings information.

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