相對於其他交通建設而言，高速鐵路的建設相較於火車更帶動了跨區域性質的遷移及流動。而現今台灣之高鐵站區除了高鐵台北站及高鐵左營站區外，大多設立於遠離市中心之地點；參見設有高速鐵路之國家，如日本及法國等國家，大多將高速鐵路之站區視作次都市中心帶動郊區之發展，期待以高鐵站區引導戰區地域性的發展，但是對於設立於郊區之高速鐵路站區，部分研究顯示因其遠離市中心之原因，因此對於高速發展之商業活動及城際通行之間的運輸系統具有無法具有互利之效果，並且有可能會降低當地人口移入之吸引力。因此本研究期望能在實證之高鐵站區藉由時間區分進行前後周邊環境比較，輔助以系統動態學的分析後期望得到由於交通設施的開發後，對於周邊環境的發展影響。
高速鐵路的設立開啟了當地地區性的發展，在政策的簇擁下開啟了臺灣各地區域的高速鐵路站區發展。而高速鐵路桃園車站特定區因鄰近著大臺北地區，且加上近年來機場捷運線的啟用，促進了不論是捷運或是高速鐵路運量的增加變化，目前高速鐵路桃園車站運量僅次於臺北站、高雄站及臺中站等三站，加上鄰近桃園航空城，以及未來預計通車之捷運路線將連接中壢區的特點，成為本研究的實證地區選擇點。
然而，一地區的發展及交通環境建設加成並非依簡單的系統或是原因可以闡述完全，相較於以往以迴歸分析進行一地區的運量跟當地發展的雙向探討，並且需要大量的資料進行分析及設定才可達到對應的分析結果而言，系統動態學可以針對不同的系統對於彼此之間的設定分析進行雙向反饋的模擬關係，盡可能的考量到不同層面的影響關係。因此本研究運用Vensim 軟體將此一複雜的問題加以系統模式的建構，透過系統動態之模擬，目前本論文區分之動態模擬市場為人口次系統、就業次系統、都市土地子系統、住宅次系統及交通子系統共五個子系統。
針對現有研究結果中之基本模擬分析可知，目前現有高速鐵路桃園車站特定區的政策計畫確實促進著當地的工商面積增加，並推測高速鐵路桃園車站特定區鄰近桃園航空城的緣故，因此而提供著當地就業機會而導致人口的增長，但是對於住宅及都市土地次系統，不論是現有的實際數據或是預測之結果，對於當地居民的居住面積及所能獲得之公共設施面積並無相對應的增加，依據文獻回顧中的結果可知，若是一地的就業機會與當地居住生活品質無法呈現正相關時，將會導致當地移入人口的意願降低，後續將會藉由情境模擬中進行變數相關設定，得到相對應之驗證。

Compared with other transportation construction, the construction of high-speed railways has driven inter-regional migration and flow more than trains. With the exception of the Taipei High Speed Rail Station and the High Speed Rail Zuoying Station Area, most of the high-speed rail stations in Taiwan today are located far away from the city center. See countries with high-speed railways, such as Japan and France, most of which have high-speed rail station areas. It is regarded as a sub-urban center to drive the development of suburbs, and it is expected that high-speed rail stations will guide the regional development of theaters. However, some studies show that high-speed rail stations established in suburbs are far away from the city center, so they are not suitable for the rapid development of businesses. Transport systems between events and inter-city traffic are not mutually beneficial and may make local populations less attractive to immigrate to. Therefore, this study hopes to compare the surrounding environment before and after the high-speed rail station area in the empirical study by time distinction, and with the help of system dynamics analysis, it is expected to obtain the development impact on the surrounding environment due to the development of transportation facilities.
The establishment of high-speed railways has initiated local regional development, and with the support of policies, the development of high-speed railway stations in various regions in Taiwan has begun. The high-speed rail Taoyuan Station specific area is adjacent to the greater Taipei area, and the opening of the Airport MRT line in recent years has promoted the increase in traffic volume of both MRT and high-speed rail. Currently, the traffic volume of the high-speed rail Taoyuan Station is only It is followed by three stations including Taipei Station, Kaohsiung Station and Taichung Station, plus its proximity to Taoyuan Aviation City, and the characteristics that the MRT line expected to be opened in the future will connect to Zhongli District, became the empirical area selection point for this study.
However, the development and transportation environment construction bonus of a region cannot be fully explained based on a simple system or reason. Compared with the past two-way discussion of a region's transportation volume and local development using regression analysis, a large amount of data is required. In order to achieve the corresponding analysis results through analysis and setting, system dynamics can conduct a two-way feedback simulation relationship for different systems to analyze the settings of each other, taking into account the influence relationships at different levels as much as possible. Therefore, this study uses Vensim software to construct a system model for this complex problem. Through the simulation of system dynamics, the dynamic simulated markets currently distinguished in this paper are population subsystem, employment subsystem, urban land subsystem, and housing subsystem. and transportation subsystem, a total of five subsystems.
Based on the basic simulation analysis of the existing research results, it can be seen that the current policy plan for the Taoyuan High Speed Rail Station Specific Area has indeed promoted the increase of local industrial and commercial area. It is also speculated that the high speed railway Taoyuan Station Specific Area is adjacent to Taoyuan Aviation City. Therefore, It provides local employment opportunities and leads to population growth. However, for residential and urban land subsystems, whether it is existing actual data or forecast results, there is no information on the living area of local residents and the area of public facilities available to them. According to the corresponding increase, according to the results of the literature review, if the employment opportunities in a place cannot show a positive correlation with the quality of local living and living, it will lead to a decrease in the willingness of the local immigrant population. Subsequent variables will be carried out through situation simulation. Relevant settings are verified accordingly.
It can be seen from the simulation that in the current policy system, the impact on the growth of the employment system and population subsystem is relatively high. However, according to the population accommodation value set in the latest second comprehensive review plan, , the population growth will exceed the current upper limit of the total population in the planned area in 2030. Although the results simulated in other sub-systems are all in a state of growth, the area of residential areas is shrinking year by year. According to the law of supply and demand and in recent years The rising housing prices in Taiwan will have a certain impetus on the population who will move to the Taoyuan Station specific area. Coupled with the rise of the transportation system, in the short term, the impact on the population growth in the high-speed rail specific area will not be particularly significant. ; However, if we look at the long-term development in the medium and long term, based on the analysis of the simulation results in this study, the immigrant population will cause excessive urban pressure, which will lead to the re-immigration of industries and people, giving the city new cyclic vitality. This is also one of the factors that need to be taken into consideration in land use and transportation planning, so that the specific area of the high-speed railway station becomes an important location for priority urban and rural development in the land plan.

中文文獻
1.林楨家、馮正民、黃麟淇。2005。臺灣高速鐵路系統對地方發展之影響預測。運輸計劃季刊，第三十四卷第三期，頁391~頁412。
2.彭建文、吳文傑、龔書玉。2009。縣市內部人口遷徙影響因素分析。人口學刊第39 期，2009 年12 月，頁85-118。
3.邱錦祥(1994)，「高速鐵路車站選擇對區域發展影響之回顧與展望」，都市與計劃期刊，第21卷，第1期，47-61頁。
4.張學孔、錢學陶、杜雲龍(2000)，「大眾運輸導向之都市發展策略」，捷運技術，第21期， 1-16頁。
5.林楨家、馮正民、黃麟淇(2005)，「台灣高速鐵路系統對方發展之影響預測」，運輸計劃季刊，第34 卷，第3 期，391-412頁。
6.薛立敏、曾喜鵬、陳雅君(2003)，區域人口遷入台北市都會區地點選擇之實證研究，住宅學報，第十一卷第二期，159-178頁。
7.薛立敏、李中文、曾喜鵬，台灣區域人口遷移及其與就業市場、住宅市場關係之實證研究，都市與計劃期刊，第30卷第一期，37-61頁。
8.韓釗(2009)。系統動力學探索動態複雜之鑰2e。台中：滄海書局。
9.陶在樸(1999)。系統動態學。台北：五南圖書出版有限公司。
10.都會區住宅空間分佈變遷及區位選擇因素之研究--以台北都會區為例
11.許侶馨、馮正民。1989。捷運系統對沿線地區地價影響之研究。
12.詹秋貴。1999。我國主要武器系統發展的政策探討。
13.陳幸宜。2002。都市房價變動影響因素之系統動態模擬─台北市之實證研究。
14.張浩峰。2004。高鐵㈵定區開發對區域發展影響之研究。
15.胡志平。2010。台灣高鐵通車營運對住宅價格之衝擊影響分析─以新竹車站為例。
16.許佳如、蘇瑛敏。2013。高鐵特定區對於臨近地區發展之研究—以高鐵台中車站特定區為例。
17.徐健銘。2013。台灣高速鐵路站區開發策略之研究-以高鐵桃園站為例。
18.朱益良。2013。中國大陸軍事力量成長之極限-以系統動態學模擬模式評估。
19.江佳穎。2018。桃園高鐵站對不同區位房價的影響。
20.楊徨仁、石豐宇。2019。以大眾運輸導向發展要素觀點探討台北捷運運量空間影響差異。
21.吳閔翰、石豐宇。2019。高速鐵路站區人口遷移之系統動態分析—以新竹縣竹北市為例。
網站部分
1.中華民國交通部鐵道局，https://www.rb.gov.tw/
2.臺灣高速鐵路，http：//www.thsrc.com.tw/tc/?lc=tc
3.桃園市政府民政局https://cab.tycg.gov.tw/home.jspid=10514&parentpath=0,10432,10513
4.桃園市中壢區戶政事務所https://www.zhongli-hro.tycg.gov.tw/home.jsp?id=25&parentpath=0,24
5.桃園市大園區戶政事務所https://www.dayuan-hro.tycg.gov.tw/index.jsp
6.國家發展委員會，https://www.ndc.gov.tw/
7.桃園大眾捷運股份有限公司https://www.tymetro.com.tw/tymetro-new/tw/_pages/about/index.html
8.臺北市統計年報，https://twinfo.ncl.edu.tw/tiqry/hypage.cgi?HYPAGE=search/show_stattext.hpg&sysid=T2025432
9.Vensim官方網站 https://vensim.com/
10.不動產專業網站 https://ctop.tw/WebContent/fuqrt/WFUQRT20_Area2.aspx?area_name=%e4%b8%ad%e5%a3%a2%e5%8d%80&city=%e6%a1%83%e5%9c%92%e5%b8%82&city_id=32&indexarea=320
11.擬定高速鐵路桃園車站特定區計畫書https://www.tcd.gov.tw/uploadfile/tcd_plan/20106810155943.pdf
12.變更高速鐵路桃園車站特定區細部計畫(第一次通盤檢討)案計畫書http://www.v523.tw/uploadcityplans/uploadfiles/1223457316708.pdf
13.變更高速鐵路桃園車站特定區細部計畫(第二次通盤檢討)(土地使用分區管制要點)(第一階段)案計畫書http://urplanning.tycg.gov.tw/tycgfiles/Plans/Final/PF000002000841.pdf
英文文獻
1.Shyr, O. F., D. E. Andersson, and T. W. Huang (2010) A Tale of Two Cities – How Transit Accessibility and Financial Crisis Affect the Prices of Commercial Properties in Taipei and Kaohsiung
2.Shyr, O. F., J. C. Wang, and D. E. Andersson (2009)The Global Financial Crisis and Transit-Oriented Development: Comparing Transit Accessibility Effects on Real Estate Values Before and During the Crisis.
3.Wang, J. C. and O. F. Shyr (2009) The Effects of Transit on Housing Prices – A Case Study of Kaohsiung Metropolitan
4.Andersson, D. E., O. F. Shyr, and A. Lee (2009)Estimating the Impact of High-Speed Rail Accessibility on Residential Property Prices in Taiwan.
5.David Miles(2012) Population Density, House Prices and Mortgage Design
6.Yalan Feng , Taewon Kim & Daniel C. Lee (2018)Housing Price and Population Changes: Growing vs Shrinking Cities
7.PLoS One. 2018; 13(5): e0197144.Population changes in residential clusters in Japan
8.The impact of new transportation modes on population distribution in Jing-Jin-Ji region of China (2018)Lizhe Wanga, and Lajiao Chen(2018)
9.Volume 125, June 2022, 103581 Weihang Gong The territorial impact of high-speed rail on urban land development
10.Volume 78, October 2022, 102199 Informal housing clearance, housing market, and labor supply
11.Drill, baby, drill: Natural resource shocks and fertility in Indonesia Labour Economics, Volume 76, 2022, Article 102178
12.Government regulation and wages: Evidence from continuing coverage mandates Labour Economics, Volume 78, 2022, Article 102236
13.Impacts of high-speed rails on urban networks and regional development: a study of the Yangtze River Delta, China Yujing An，International Journal of Sustainable Transportation (Volume 16, 2022 - Issue 6)
14.High-speed rail, urban form, and regional innovation: a time-varying difference-in-differences approach Hengyun Tang，Technology Analysis & Strategic Management