近年來高速鐵路系統(HSR)於國內外急遽擴張，高速鐵路中間站替都市間帶來的新城際關係備受矚目。鑒於高速鐵路帶來的交通可及性變革，高速鐵路中間站經常被設於遠離舊市區中心的郊區催化新興都市發展。近期的研究著重在高速鐵路影響城際間的人口流動(通勤、遷移)，以及車站選址於郊區對旅客、車站周邊經濟發展的負面影響，指出高速鐵路車站與都市之間應當協同發展。然而，對於郊區的高速鐵路車站地區，現有的量性研究常忽略都市發展部門間的系統性交互作用，以都市發展的角度評估改善哪些關鍵因素有助於吸引人口移入。
針對上述的學術與實務需求，系統動態學(System Dynamics)擅長描述相互關聯的複雜系統，可以為都市規劃師對跨部門的系統行為有更深入的理解，並同時透過模擬方法找出改善人口成長帶動都市發展的政策介入點。據此，本研究的目的為開發一個都市發展系統動態模式，以評估影響郊區高速鐵路車站地區人口成長的關鍵因素。本文以臺灣高速鐵路營運後人口成長率最高的郊區高速鐵路車站地區-新竹縣竹北市(Chubei city)，做為建構系統動態模式假說的研究案例，並比對歷史數據(2009~2016)驗證模式行為效度，通過檢定後始進行未來10年的都市發展政策情境預測模擬。
政策情境模擬結果顯示，製造業與三級產業廠商家數、高速鐵路通勤負擔能力、新竹科學工業園區工作可及性是正面影響竹北市人口成長的關鍵因素，而住宅價格會呈現負面影響；次之，最能有效改善人口成長的都市發展政策是增加車站地區的工作可及性，包含縮短高速鐵路新竹車站至新竹科學工業園區的通勤時間，以及竹北市中心至臺北市中心的高速鐵路通勤時間；最後，投資車站相關重大建設計畫時，地方政府應有的配套都市發展政策是穩定人口成長伴隨的高住宅價格，這個負面關鍵因素的反饋效果在短期內並不容易被發現，就中長期而言恐會導致車站地區的人口、產業成長趨緩。對於國內相似區位的高速鐵路車站特定區，本文建議土地使用與交通運輸部門未來可調查車站地區高速鐵路通勤者的社會經濟背景及旅次分佈，以便於都市計畫通盤檢討作業定期檢討車站聯外大眾運輸系統，同時研擬兼顧經濟發展與可負擔住宅的社會永續對策。

This study applies a system dynamics(SD) model for the population growth and urban development in Chubei City, Hsinchu, Taiwan. The aim of the SD model is to test the outcomes of urban development policy scenarios and to evaluate the key factors that affect population growth in the suburban HSR station area. It consists of five sub-systems including population, labor market, housing market, HSR commuting, and Hsinchu Science Park (HSP) accessibility, respectively. The urban development schemes including HSR station-related megaprojects and housing price stabilized policy are simulated by the SD model and the findings are verified with historical data(2009~2016).
The timeframe of urban development policy scenarios is from 2016 to 2026, and results indicate that manufacturing and tertiary workplace, daily HSR commuting affordability, HSP accessibility play an important role in determining the population growth of Chubei City, while housing prices will have a negative impact. Furthermore, the most effective urban development policy to improve population growth is to increase the job accessibility of suburban HSR station area, including shortening the travel time of the HSR station to the Hsinchu Science Park, and the HSR commuting time form Chubei city central business district (CBD) to Taipei city CBD. This research suggests that a regular overall guideline of urban planning and design for the suburban HSR station area can investigate the trip distribution of HSR commuters in the future, and take into account economic and social sustainable development policy.

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