許多研究指出，將近70﹪的民航失事係導因於駕駛疏失；也有研究指出，幾乎所有的民航失事都是包含許多形式的疏失風險所引起。傳統的研究除了概念性的敘述外，乃著重在透過失事調查找出與人為疏失有關聯的因素。本研究以系統整合的觀念做起步，藉由回授控制理論之迴路轉移函數特性，結合風險管理、組織行為與安全氣候等相關研究，經由一連串的邏輯觀念推演，發展出一套全新之系統化風險分析模組。
　　飛安風險管理理論之理論邏輯推演基礎，乃源自於人類日常生活的飲食習慣觀察，本研究將其稱之為糕餅製作流程類比（Cake Making Process）。糕餅製作流程類比將風險的形成機制視作是糕餅師傅從糕餅的選材、加工，乃至於缺陷變質，進而影響到顧客食用後的生理變化等一系列現象過程之行為類比。根據糕餅哲學的基礎，飛安風險管理理論涵蓋了一個主要輸入、兩個次要干擾源輸入，以及八個典型且必須具備之參數，經由理論分析，本研究發展出若干組織安全管理之概念性議題，如風險管理效能、組織安全潛能、組織經驗潛能與不確定性指標等。
　　風險管理效能代表著組織系統在事前預防及事後補救過程中，所不能予以消除的各式風險數量分布中，經由回授檢討改進機制在新一次的運作時，得以重新再掌控的之風險數量分布比例；安全潛能則被定義為不安全因素分布與組織安全防禦機制函數的向量內積，用以表現組織防禦機制與現存風險因素契合之程度；經驗潛能代表著不安全因素分布與經驗回授機制的向量內積，用以表現經驗回授被充分應用在預防現存風險危害之程度；不確定性指標則是指，在既定的組織氣候下，運作系統所包含的不安全潛能數量多寡，亦即表示在組織既存的潛在不安全因素中，會持續惡化形成不安全事件的比例程度。
　　本理論以Q-Airline的失事事件為例，逐步進行事件演進之分析探討，經結合相關調查報告所引述之事實資料，並將本理論前述各項相關議題予以套用後，對於失事事件的演進，皆可獲致合理之解釋。

　　Although risk and safety have always been important considerations in civil aviation, and many researchers have built several risk assessment models, the perception of risk is still a critical element in aviation safety. An innovative Aviation Safety and Corporate Risk Management Model (ASCRM) is presented in this dissertation based on the feedback control concept commonly used in the field of feedback control system analysis. Its fundamental philosophy of the ASCRM model can be analogized to the cake-making process. Cake-making process separates the evolution of risk from the initial planning to the final customers’ reaction. The ASCRM is constructed by including one major input, two minor disturbance inputs, and eight systemic parameters. Several new concepts in organizational safety management are introduced such as Risk Management Performance (RMP), Organizational Safety Potential (SP), Organizational Experience Potential (EP), and Uncertainty Indicator (UCI). Result shows that the nature of RMP output can be mapped into the states of Safety Potential, which implies that the degree of hazards can be eliminated with the designed defense systems. And Experience Potential implies that the degree of hazards can be prevented with experience feedback. The Uncertainty Indicator, which represents the risk unpredictability, is the dominant part to represent the risk control level of a developed corporation. By integrating the concepts of Risk Management, Organizational Behavior, and Safety Culture/Climate into the ASCRM model, this dissertation presents an effective method with those concepts through mathematic analyses. Case study is also presented to lend the credibility that the ASCRM model matches the heuristic explanation of the present-day civil aviation cooperation behavior.

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