3G行動通訊系統因技術、需求、終端設備的發展未臻成熟，加上初期投資的建置及維運成本高昂，所以即使業者已取得3G頻譜，卻仍然遲遲未開台。然而隨著無線區域網路(WLAN)的建設逐漸成熟，加上VoIP的技術發展，使得VoWLAN/VoWi-Fi可能對即將開台的3G產生威脅。而在Wi-Fi無線區域網路仍在發展的同時，一個傳輸距離最遠可達50公里，傳輸速率最快可達70 Mbps的無線都會網路(Wireless Metropolitan Area Network,WMAN)技術-WiMAX的出現，甚至是具有移動性的mobile WiMAX也正在發展中，此技術的出現將對3G系統產生更強烈的替代、威脅。

行動通訊與無線網路的匯流與整合，使得行動通訊系統業者必須要正視新興無線寬頻網路技術WiMAX的存在。未來該業者該如何因應WiMAX技術的威脅以及找出業者最適的技術採用策略為本研究所欲探討之重點。本研究利用情境分析法所得到的研究結果整理如下：
1. 2010年最可能之情境為「無線寬頻網路興起」。此時WiMAX機會點為：.我國上網人口眾多、政府推動M台灣計劃及「電信國家型科技計畫」、及WiMAX IPR free將加速技術及設備的普及。威脅點為：WiMAX的全球頻譜管制尚未明確，影響WiMAX達到全球互通的時程、WiMAX技術與3G系統不相容。此時技術採用策略為：a. 加速推廣3G系統、b.提供3G與Wi-Fi結合的方案、c. 採用WiMAX技術與3G形成互補，避免3G被具有破壞性創新特質之WiMAX取代。

2. 2010年對業者而言最樂觀之情境為「行動通訊與無線網路整合」。此時WiMAX機會點為：無線寬頻市場大幅成長、系統標準互通，形成無接縫網路接取之網路效應、mobile WiMAX技術及成本較3G具有優勢。威脅點為： WiMAX與3G系統不相容、我國對mobile WiMAX的頻譜策略保守。技術採用策略為：a. 將3G升級為3.5G系統、b. 採用WiMAX及mobile WiMAX系統，朝向提供無接縫無線通訊環境發展。

3. 2010年對業者而言最帶來威脅的情境為「電信景氣持續低迷」，此時WiMAX機會點為：我國網路使用者習慣寬頻上網速度，全球加入WiMAX聯盟的硬體、軟體、手機製造商及營運商仍多。威脅點為：使用者對無線高傳輸量的需求未見成長、無線通訊系統的頻譜尚未開放，不同系統標準間也未能整合、既有固網寬頻普及率高，WiMAX能替代的寬頻接取市場不大、WiMAX尚未形成一新的經濟體系。技術採用策略為：a. 逐步減少2.5G之應用、b.加強並固守3G之應用。

For the trend of the convergence of mobile communications and broadband wireless access (BWA) systems and networks, mobile operators should face the threat of the emerging and disruptive broadband wireless access technology – WiMAX.
This paper etilizes scenario analysis to forecast what is the plausible telecommunications scenarios in 2010, and find out what are the opportunities and threats of WiMAX in the meanwhile. Finally, find out the optimal technology adoption strategies of each plausible scenarios. The conclusions of this paper are as follows:

1. The most possible scenario in 2010 is “Broadband wireless access services springing up.” WiMAX’s opportunities are : (1) internet users are numerous in Taiwan、(2)our government will support “M-Taiwan” and “The National Science & Technology Program for Telecommunications”、 (3) WiMAX IPR free will accelerate the technology , equipments and devices available and affordable. Threats are：(1)the global spectrum regulation of WiMAX is not clear yet,and it could delay the global Interoperability timing、(2)WiMAX is not compatible with 3G. The optimal technology adoption strategies are：(a) accelerate to promote 3G services、(b)offer 3G combines Wi-Fi solutions、(c) adopt WiMAX to be a complementary technology to 3G to avoid 3G be replaced by the disruptive innovation technology-WiMAX.

2. The most optimistic scenario in 2010 is “Mobile communications and broadband wireless access (BWA) systems and networks converging”. WiMAX’s opportunities are：(1) broadband wireless market growing up、(2)well Interoperability and interconnection with different standards and systems，forming a seamless network and network-effect、(3)mobile WiMAX deployment and maintenance costs are lower than 3G ,thus it can provide a cheaper alternative solution of 3G. Threats are： (1)WiMAX is not Compatible with 3G、(2)the attitude of the Directorate General of Telecommunications toward mobile WiMAX is conservative . The optimal technology adoption strategies are ：(a) upgrade 3G to 3.5G、(b) adopt WiMAX and mobile WiMAX,，striving for provide an integrated , seamless wireless brosdband telecommunications services.

3. The most threatening scenario in 2010 is “ Mobile communications industry continued slumping”, WiMAX’s opportunities are：(1)users in Taiwan get used to the broadband access data rate、(2)there are still many Key hardware ,software ,cellar phone manufacturers and mobile operators join the WiMAX Forum. Threats are： (1)the spectrum for WiMAX/BWA is not available, and different standards and systems have not intergrate、(2)the exist fixed broadband (DSL or cable) penetration is high, the marketplace that WiMAX can replace is not that big、(3)WiMAX system has not formed a new ecosystem、(4)users’ demand for high-definition , higher data transmission has not grown up. The optimal technology adoption strategies are：(a) reduce the applications of 2.5G、( b) enhance and fasten the applications and services of 3G.

中文部分
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