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研究生: 葛荷麗
GUERRA, GELY MARLIS GUERRERO
論文名稱: The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development in Panama and Costa Rica
The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development in Panama and Costa Rica
指導教授: 楊曉瑩
Yang, Ann-Shawing
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 73
外文關鍵詞: stock index, economic development, stock market development, macroeconomic variables
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  • This study examines the role of macroeconomic variables on stock prices movements in Panama and Costa Rica. We use Panama and Costa Rica Stock Indexes to represent stock market development. The local stock market in Panama and Costa Rica are in an emerging stage, and by not being fully develop, their potential as a source of financing and its contribution to economic development, has remained low. This stage of the stock market is originated in a set of economic factors rather than one economic factor where the potential as a source of financing to the real economy has been affected. This study aims to focus in the economic factors and provide explanations on the low growth and compare the stock markets evolution in these two countries.
    The Panamanian stock market has grown considerably in recent decades, but it remains illiquid and concentrated. Listed companies began to decrease in the Costa Ricans stock market when a series of regulations and norms were implemented, which make difficult for investors to enter the market. This research study the recent evolution of the Panamanian and Costa Ricans stock market in comparative terms and use statistics technique (multiple regression analysis) in order to explain long-run relationships between macroeconomic variables and the stock market development. It is found that macroeconomic variables are relevant for the development.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS II TABLE OF CONTENTS III LIST OF TABLES VI LIST OF FIGURES VII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Characteristics of the Panamanian Stock Market. 2 1.1.1 History of the Panama Stock Exchange. 3 1.1.2 The Panamanian National Securities Commission. 4 1.1.3 Determinants of Stock Market Development. 4 1.1.4 Panama Stock Index. 6 1.1.5 Market Liquidity. 7 1.2 Characteristics of the Costa Ricans Stock Market. 8 1.2.1 History of Costa Ricans Stock Exchange. 8 1.2.2 The Superintendencia General de Valores. 9 1.2.3 Determinants of Stock Market Development. 9 1.2.4 Costa Rica Stock Index. 11 1.2.5 Market Liquidity. 12 1.3 Research Motivation. 13 1.4 Research Questions. 14 1.5 Research Objective. 15 1.6 Research Structure. 15 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 17 2.1 Stock Market Development and Economic Growth. 17 2.2 Market Liberalization and Integration. 20 2.3 Institutional Quality. 27 2.3.1 Privatization. 28 2.3.2 Governance. 30 2.2.3 Political Risk. 31 2.3.4 Shareholders Protection. 32 2.3.5 Corruption. 33 2.4 Volatility. 34 2.5 Stock Market versus Banks. 35 2.6 Monetary Policy, Substitution Effect and Proxy Hypotheses. 37 2.7 Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and Dividend Discount Model (DDM). 38 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 40 3.1 Stock Market Variables. 40 3.2 Hypotheses. 42 3.2.1 Dependent Variable: Stock Market Development. 42 3.2.2 Control Variables. 42 3.3 Data and Method. 48 3.4 Data Sources. 49 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 51 4.1 Preliminary Statistics. 51 4.1.1 Descriptive Statistics for Panama Stock Market. 51 4.1.2 Collinearity Analysis. 52 4.2 Analytical Results. 53 4.2.1 Model Summary. 53 4.2.2 ANOVA. 54 4.2.3 Coefficients. 54 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 60 5.1 Research Results and Contributions. 60 5.2 Limitations and Suggestions. 66 REFERENCES 69

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