過往有許多關於選舉贏家與輸家間選民對政權合法性之態度差異的研究，如民主滿意度、政治機構信任程度等，近期研究則多以制度面向對贏家輸家間政權合法性之態度差異的調節效果為主。隨著近年來民粹主義的盛行，民粹主義政黨的影響力日漸增加，部分國家的民粹主義政黨獲得進入內閣的機會，甚至出任總理職位，民粹主義政黨對政權合法性之態度的影響也成為研究關注的焦點；然而，過去甚少討論民粹主義政黨與贏家輸家態度差異間的關聯，因此本文將探討民粹主義政黨對選舉贏家輸家間政權合法性態度之差異的影響。
本文認為民粹主義政黨會在身處不同選舉結果時調整其與選民的對話與宣傳方式，並影響選民態度及立場，當民粹主義政黨為選舉輸家時必須透過「反精英」、「人民中心」等反建制言論以獲取選票，造成選民的政權合法性態度較非民粹主義政黨選民低落；而當民粹主義政黨身為選舉贏家時，其會和緩激進的語氣並轉向關注其他議題面向，進而使其支持者的態度與非民粹主義政黨支持者無異。本文主要數據來自歐洲社會調查 (European Social Survey) 2012至2020年的民調資料，並結合The Populist, V-Party, V-Dem與World Bank等資料庫，統計模型使用多層次模型 (multilevel model) 進行分析。本文發現，民粹主義政黨在成為選舉輸家時，其選民的民主滿意度和政治機構信任度，皆比非民粹主義政黨成為輸家時選民的態度評價更低；而當民粹主義政黨成為贏家時，其選民對政權合法性之態度與非民粹主義政黨成為贏家時選民的態度並無顯著差異，贏得總理職位時甚至擁有較非民粹主義政黨選民高的民主滿意度。

There have been many studies on the differences in attitudes toward legitimacy between election winners and losers, such as satisfaction with democracy and trust in political institution. Recent research has mainly focused on the moderating effect of institutional factors on the differences in attitudes toward legitimacy between winners and losers. With the rise of populism in recent years, the influence of populist parties has been increasing. In some countries, populist parties have entered cabinets and even won the prime minister position. Although the impact of populist parties on attitudes toward legitimacy has become a focal point of attention, there is little to no discussion about the relation between populist parties and the differences in attitudes between winners and losers. Therefore, this paper will explore the impact of populist parties on the differences in attitudes towards legitimacy between election winners and losers.
It is argued that populist parties will adapt their rhetoric and discourse to voters according to different election outcomes. When populist parties are election losers, they use anti-establishment rhetoric such as “anti-elitism” and “people-centrism” to gain votes, leading to lower satisfaction with democracy and political trust compared to non-populist party voters. On the other hand, when populist parties are election winners, they will adopt a more moderate and balanced tone on rhetoric and shift focus to other issues. Thus, attitudes towards legitimacy of its supporters become not different from those of non-populist parties’ supporters. This study relies on data from “European Social Survey” conducted between 2012-2020, combined with data from “The Populist”, “V-Party”, “V-Dem”, and the “World Bank”, alongside with multilevel model for analysis. This paper reveals that when populist parties become election losers, satisfaction with democracy and political trust among their voters are significantly lower than those of non-populist parties’ voters when they are election losers. However, when populist parties become election winners, the attitudes towards legitimacy are not significantly different from those of non-populist parties’ voters when they become election winners. Besides, when populist parties win the position of Prime Minister, their supporters even have higher levels of satisfaction with democracy compared to supporters of non-populist parties.

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