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研究生: 湯艾靈
Tang, Ai-Ling
論文名稱: 以整數規劃和模擬求解供應商前置時間與需求不確定下之多廠訂單生產指派問題
The Use of Integer Programming Formulation and Simulation in Solving the Multi-site Order Assignment Problem Under Supplier Lead-time and Demand Uncertainty
指導教授: 楊大和
Yang, Taho
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電機資訊學院 - 製造資訊與系統研究所
Institute of Manufacturing Information and Systems
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 110
中文關鍵詞: 決策支援系統需求不確定離散事件模擬整數規劃多廠訂單指派供應商前置時間不確定
外文關鍵詞: Decision Support System, Demand Uncertainty, Discrete Event Simulation, Integer Programming, Multi-site Order Assignment, Supplier Lead Time Uncertainty
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  • 漁網產業屬於高度客製化的接單式(Make-to-Order,MTO)生產環境,在此環境下受到顧客需求不易預測影響,製造商須備有原物料存貨面對顧客需求不確定性,並當原物料存貨量小於所設定存貨水準時向供應商進行原物料採購,而供應商受到生產與運送變異影響,造成原物料供應前置時間過長或變異過大,使製造商生產顧客訂單時發生缺料的問題,進而延後顧客訂單的生產。近年來許多企業紛紛至國外設置工廠以提高本身競爭能力,但通常跨國多廠的生產環境,各廠皆有其不同的可用產能與原物料存貨水準,當處於資訊不透明的情況下,製造商往往使用經驗法則將顧客訂單指派至適合的廠房生產,造成訂單分配不均、產能不足或過剩的問題發生。
    本研究針對漁網產業跨國多廠與高度客製化的環境,發展出一套客製化的訂單指派決策支援系統,目的為有效的與顧客協商和將顧客訂單指派至多廠。此系統使用啟發式演算法求得無法滿足的訂單並與顧客進行協商,而可生產的訂單則使用整數規劃協助進行訂單指派,以有效的反應顧客需求。進一步將本研究提出系統使用在所設計的供應商前置時間與顧客需求不確定性情境,發現此系統在各情境的績效表現皆優於未使用的情況,特別是在需求大於產能時更能展現此系統的效益。從供應商情境測試結果發現,平均而言此系統在面對供應商前置時間長與供應變異大的環境時表現最佳,其中利潤平均增加了12.83%,服務水準平均增加了15.92%。

    The fishing net production industry is under the make-to-order environment. In this industry, the manufacturers have the difficulties of forecasting customer demands, therefore, they must prepare raw materials to face customer demand uncertainty. However, the instability of supplier’s production and transportation increase the transport lead time of raw material. Hence, the manufacturers have to face insufficient of raw materials and the delay of production from customer order. Recently, many companies built factories in foreign countries in order to enhance their competitive advantages. However, they always use past experiences to assign customers order because of unclear production information. Therefore, the problems such as uneven of distribution of customer orders or insufficient capacity for customer orders may occur occasionally.
    This paper built up a multi-site order assignment decision support system for fishing net companies in order to negotiate with customers and assign orders more accurate. This system use heuristic to find the orders that companies cannot produce and negotiate with customers and integer programming to assign orders. The system shows the effectiveness when this system faces the problem of uncertain environments, and it perform better than original system, especially if the demands is greater than capacities,. On average, this system performs better when facing long supplier lead time and large variation, the companies’ net profits increase 12.83% and service level increases 15.92%.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 誌謝 iv 目錄 v 表目錄 vii 圖目錄 viii 1. 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究流程 3 1.4 論文架構 3 2. 文獻探討 4 2.1 可允諾量之相關概念 4 2.2 多廠生產規劃 7 2.3 決策支援系統 14 3. 研究方法 19 3.1 研究方法流程 19 3.2 離散事件模擬模式 20 3.3 兩階段訂單指派決策支援系統 24 4. 實例說明 34 4.1 案例公司簡介 34 4.2 建立模擬模式 42 4.3 訂單指派決策支援系統 67 4.4 情境設計 72 4.5 實驗結果與分析 76 4.6 敏感度分析 87 5. 結論與建議 92 5.1 結論 92 5.2 未來研究與建議 93 參考文獻 95 附錄A 成本與原物料假設相關資訊 98 附錄B ARENA中VBA Block建構程式碼(暫不附上) 100 附錄C 訂單允諾建構程式碼(暫不附上) 100 附錄D 訂單指派建構程式碼(暫不附上) 100 附錄E 需求大於產能情境測試 101 附錄F 不同情境與敏感度分析的績效指標資訊 103

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