母體總數的研究為統計方法在生態學上重要的應用之一。在研究期間, 若母體無未知之遷移, 死亡, 繁殖, 新增等因素影響, 其總數為一常數,
稱之為封閉性母體(closed population)。反之, 則稱為開放性母體(open population)。在本文中吾人考慮在一週期中取樣數次的情形,但在此週期中避開動物的繁殖期和遷徙期, 即在同一週期中之取樣為一死亡模式。

首先, 我們由母體中取出部份子母體,標上記號, 視為一已知數量之補充母體(planted population) P 加入另一未知數量大小的目標母體(target population)P ; 然後, 利用補充母體及樣本涵蓋率的觀念導出母體總數與變異係數cv及平均捕取率 的關係,
並利用動差法求得cv的估計, 進而得到新的母體總數之估計量。同時, 我們利用泰勒展開式導出近似變異數的估計量。而透過模擬的結果得知:當cv較小時, 傳統之Jolly-Seber估計量 表現尚可; 當
cv 0.4時, 吾人所提的估計量 較 , 具有較小的偏誤和均方誤差, 但也因cv的估計而使估計標準差稍大。

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