簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 阿茲曼
MUAMMAR, AZMAN
論文名稱: Causal Relationship between Trade and FDI:Study on Indonesia and Thailand
Causal Relationship between Trade and FDI:Study on Indonesia and Thailand
指導教授: 康信鴻
Kang, Hsin-Hong
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 53
中文關鍵詞:
外文關鍵詞: Foreign Direct Investement, International Trade, Granger Causality, Cointegration Test
相關次數: 點閱:120下載:1
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • The main objective for this paper is to study the causal link between FDI, GDP growth and trade in two countries, namely Indonesia and Thailand, during 1993-2008 periods. This study also investigates direction of causality between four variables involved, based on Granger causality test. In order to maintain Granger causality test, prior co-integration test and unit root test were conducted.

    This study found that there are causality relationships between FDI, trade and economic growth in Indonesia and Thailand during 1993-2008 periods. Each country performs similarly in GDP growth, export and import trend but perform differently in FDI to export. The results show that in Indonesia FDI tends to Granger cause export while in Thailand export tends to Granger causes FDI. In Indonesia, GDP Granger causes export and in Thailand export Granger causes GDP. Further, the remaining relationships for GDP and import Granger causes FDI inflows.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III ABSTRACT IV TABLE OF CONTENTS V LIST OF TABLES VII LIST OF FIGURES VIII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background and Motivation. 1 1.2 Contribution to the Research. 3 1.3 Hypothesis. 3 1.4 Organization of the Study. 4 1.5 Research Procedure. 5 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1 Economic Overview on FDI, Trade, Economic Growth in Indonesia and Thailand. 9 2.1.1 Indonesia. 13 2.1.2 Thailand. 13 2.2 Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth. 14 2.3 Relationship between FDI and Trade. 17 2.4 Causal Relationship between FDI, Economic Growth, and Trade. 20 2.5 Description of Variables. 23 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 24 3.1 Research Variables and Data. 24 3.2 Methodology. 25 3.2.1 Unit Root Test. 25 3.2.2 Co-integration. 26 3.2.3 Granger Causality Test. 28 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 30 4.1 Test of Unit Root. 30 4.2 Test of Co-integration. 31 4.3 Test of Granger Causality. 35 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 44 5.1 Research Discussion. 44 5.2 Research Implications. 45 5.3 Research Limitation and Future Research. 48 REFERENCES 49

    REFERENCES
    Aitken, B., Hanson, G., & Harrison, A. (1997). Spillovers, foreign investment and export behavior. Journal of International Economics, 43, 103-132.
    Aitken, B. J., & Harrison, A. E. (1999). Do domestic firm benefit from direct foreign investment? evidence from venezuela American Economic Review, 89, 605-618.
    Alguacil, M. T., Cuadros, A., & Orts, V. (2002). Foreign direct investment, exports, and domestic performance in Mexico: A causality analysis. Economic Letters, 77, 371-376.
    Appleyard, D. R., Field, A. J., & Cobb, S. (2006). International Economics (5 ed.): McGraw-Hill.
    Bajo-Rubio, O., & Montero-Munoz, M. (2000). Foreign direct investment and trade: a causality analysis. Studies on the Spanish economy from FEDEA, 6(November).
    Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5, 181-189.
    Balasubramanyam, V. N., Salisu, M., & Sapsford, D. (1999). Foreign direct investment as an engine of growth. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development Studies, 8(1), 27-40.
    Banga, R. (2003). Impact of government policies and investment agreements on FDI Infows. New Delhi Working Papers.
    Barba-Navaretti, G., & Venables, A. J. (2004). Multinational firm in the world economy: Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
    Barro, R., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth: MIT Press, MA.
    Basu, P., Chakraborty, C., & Reagle, D. (2003). Liberalisation, FDI, and growth in developing countries: A panel cointegration approach. Economic Inquiry, 51, 510-516.
    Bayoumi, T., & Lipworth, G. (1997). Japanese foreign direct investment and regional trade. IMF Working Paper, WP/97/103.
    Bevan, A. A., & Estrin, S. (2000). The determinants of foreign direct investment in transition economies [Electronic Version]. William Davidson Institute Working Paper 1-39,
    Billington, N. (1999). The location of foreign direct investment : An empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 31, 65-76.
    Blomstrom, M., Lipsey, R. E., & Kulchycky. (1988). US and swedish direct investments: import and export. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    Borensztein, E. J., De gregorio, J., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth. Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115-135.
    Brainard, S. L. (1993). A simple theory of multinational corporations and trade with a trade-off between proximity and concentration. NBER Working Paper, 4269(february).
    Brems, H. (1970). A growth model of international direct investment American Economic Review, 60, 320-331.
    Buckley, P. J., & Casson, M. (1998). Analysing foreign market entry strategies: extending the internationalisation approach. International Business Studies, 29(3), 110.
    Carcovic, M., & Levine, R. (Eds.). (2005). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth ? Washington, D.C: Institute for International Economics.
    Choe, J. I. (2003). Do foreign investment promote and gross domestic investment promote economic growth ? . Review of Development Economics, 1, 44-57.
    Chowdhury, A., & Mavrotas, G. (2006). FDI and growth. What causes what ? The World Economy, 29, 9-19.
    De Mello, L. R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford Economic Papers, 51(1), 133-151.
    De Mello, L. R., & Fukasaku, K. (2000). Trade and foreign direct investment in latin america and southeast asia: temporal causality analysis. Journal of International Development, 12, 903-924.
    Department of State, U. S. (2009). Background note: Thailand. Retrieved May 13,2009, from http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2814.htm
    Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with unit root. American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
    Dunning, J. H. (1980). The location of foreign direct investment activity, country characteristics and experience effects. International Business Studies, 9-22.
    Dunning, J. H. (1988). The eclectic paradigm of international production: a restatement and some possible extensions. Journal of international Business studies, 19, 1-31.
    Dunning, J. H. (1998). Globalization, trade and foreign direct investment. Oxford: Elsevier.
    Eaton, J., & Tamura, A. (1994). Bilateralism and regionalism in japanese and US trade and deficit foreign direct investment patterns. Journal of The Japanese and International Economics, 8(4), 478-510.
    Edwards, S. (1998). Opennes, productivity growth: what do we really know? Economic Journal, 108(383-393).
    Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
    Erdal, F., & Tatoglu, E. (2002). Locational determinants of foreign direct investment in an emerging market economy: evidence from Turkey. Multinational Business Review, 10(1), 21-27.
    Findlay, R. (1978). Relative backwardness, direct foreign investment, and the transfer of technology: a simple dynamic model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 92, 1-16.
    Fontagne, L., & Pajot, M. (1997). How foreign direct investment affects international trade and competitiveness: an empirical assessment. CEPII Document de Travail, 1997-17(December).
    Fontagne, L., & Pajot, M. (2000). Foreign trade and FDI stocks in British, US, and French industries: complements or subtitutes? : Palgrave Macmillan.
    Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five alternative methods of estimating long-run relationships. Econometrics, 60, 203-204.
    Gopinath, M., Pick, D., & Vasavada, U. (1999). The economics of foreign direct investment and trade with an application to the US food processing industry. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81(2), 442-452.
    Griliches, Z. (1979). Issues in assesing the contribution of research and development to productivity growth. Bell Journal of Economics, 10, 92-116.
    Grossman, G., & Helpman, E. (1990). Comparative advantage and long run growth. American Economic Review, 80, 796-815.
    Helpman, E. (1984). A simple theory of international trade with multinational corporations. Journal of Political Economy, 92(3), 451-471.
    Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Cambridge: MIT Press.
    Horsmann, I., & Markusen, J. R. (1992). Endogenous market structures in international trade. Journal of International Economics, 20, 225-247.
    Johansen, & Soren. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Economic Dynamic and Control, 12, 231-254.
    Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford: Oxford university press.
    Johansen, S., & Joselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with application to the demand for money. Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, 52, 169-209.
    Johanson, J., & Wiedersheim-paul, F. (1975). The internationalization of the firm: four swedish cases. Journal of Management studies, 12(3), 305-322.
    Kholdy, S. (1995). Causality between foreign investment and spillover efficiency. Applied Economics, 27, 74-749.
    Kojima, K. (1975). International trade and foreign investment: substitutes or complements? Hitotsubashi journal of economics, 16, 1-12.
    Lankes, H. P., & Venables, A. J. (1996). Foreign direct investment in economic transition:20 The changing pattern of investments. Economics of Transition, 4, 331-347.
    Liu, X., Wang, C., & Wei, Y. (2001). Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in china. China Economic Review, 12, 190-202.
    Loungani P, & Razin, A. (2001). How beneficial is foreign direct investment for developing countries ? Finance and Development, 38.
    Marchant, M. A., Manukyan, T., & Koo, W. (1992). International trade and foreign direct investment: a focus on the free trade area of the americas. from http://cnas.tamu.edu/publications/powpoint/papers/Marchant.pdf
    Markusen, J. R., & Venables, A. J. (1996). The increased importance of direct investment in north atlantic economic relationship: a converge hypothesis: Cambridge University press.
    Markusen, J. R., & Venables, A. J. (1998). Multinational firms and new trade theory. Journal of International Economics, 46, 183-203.
    Marwah, K., & Tavakoli, A. (2004). The effect of foreign capital and imports on economic growth: further evidence from four asian countries (1970-1998). Asian Economics, 15, 399-413.
    Mehra, Y. P. (1989). Velocity and the variability of money growth: evidence from granger causality tests: comment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 21(2), 262-266.
    Mekki, R. (2005). The impact of foreign direct investment on trade: evidence from Tunisia: Palgrave Macmillan.
    Moss, T. J., Ramachandran V, & Shah M.K. (2005). Is Africa's scepticism of foreign capital justified? evidence from east African survey data. from www.iie.com/publications/chapter_preview
    Mundell, R. A. (1957). International trade and factor mobility. American Economic Review, 47, 321-335.
    Nelson, C., & Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Monetary Economics, 10, 130-162.
    Nicholas, S. (1982). British multinational investment before 1939. Journal of european economic hystory, 11(3), 605-630.
    Pacheco-Lopez, P. (2005). Foreign direct investment, exports and imports in Mexico. World Economy, 28(8), 1157-1172.
    Pain, N., & Wakelin, K. (1998). Export performance and the role of foreign direct investment (Vol. 66).
    Pappanaatassiou, M., & Pearce, R. D. (1990). Host country characteristics and the sourcing behavior of the UK manufacturing industry. Discussion Paper University of Reading.
    Pfaffermayr, M. (1994). Foreign direct investment and exports: A time series approach. Applied Economics, 26, 337-351.
    Pfaffermayr, M. (1996). Foreign outward direct investment and exports in Austrian manufacturing: substitutes or complements? . Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 132(3), 501-552.
    Ramstetter, E. D. (1991). US direct investment in developing asia and structural adjustment in the US manufacturing industry: Boulder: Westview Press.
    Rivera-Batiz, L. A., & Romer, P. M. (1991). Economic integration and endogenous growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 206, 531-555.
    Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing return and long run groth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002-1037.
    Sader, F. (1993). Privatization and foreign direct investment in the developing world [Electronic Version]. World Bank Working Paper, 1202,
    Sakurai, M. (1995). East asian trade and investment policies. Singapore: Institute of East Asian Studies.
    Santoso, P., Sukawati, E., & Herdiawan, J. (2008). 2008 Economic report on Indonesia [Electronic Version], 92-110. Retrieved April 12, 2009, from http://www.bi.go.id/NR/rdonlyres/7538502C-0522-4BE5-A798-5B1AD29B1792/16522/LPI2008ingg.pdf
    Sawada, N. (2004). Technology transfer, spillovers and growth through FDI in developing countries: University Hawaii at Manoa.
    Scarperlanda, A. E., & Mauer, L. S. (1969). The determinants of US direct Investment in the E.E.C. American Economic Review, 59, 558-568.
    Schneider, F., & Frey, B. S. (1985). Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment. World Development, 13, 75-161.
    Segerstrom, P. C., Anant, T. C. A., & Dinopoulos. (1990). A schumpeterian model of product life cycle. American Economic Review, 80(1077-1091).
    Singh, H., & Jun, K. W. (1995). Some new evidence on determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.
    Solow, R. (1957). Technical change and aggregate production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320.
    Stock, J., & Watson, M. W. (2003). Introduction to econometrics: Addison Wesley, Boston.
    Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1988). Testing for common trends. American Statistical Association, 83, 1097-1107.
    Svensson, R. (1996). Foreign activities of swedish multinational corporations. In Economic studies (Vol. 25): Department of economics, Uppsala university.
    Swan, T. W. (1956). Economic growth and capital accumulation. Economic Record, 32, 334-361.
    Swedenborg, B. (1979). The multinational operations of swedish firms: analysis of determinants and effects [Electronic Version]. Industrial Institute of Economic and Social Research,
    Tongzon, J. L. (1998). The Economies of south east asia: The growth and development of ASEAN economies: MA: Edwar Elgar.
    UNCTAD. (2003). World Investment Report [Electronic Version],
    Vernon, R. (1966). International investment and international trade in product cycle. quarterly journal of economics, 80, 190-207.

    下載圖示 校內:2011-06-17公開
    校外:2014-06-17公開
    QR CODE