| 研究生: |
羅奕晴 Lo, Yi-Ching |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
台灣高齡當事者道路交通事故樣態 Patterns of Road Traffic Crashes among Older Victims in Taiwan |
| 指導教授: |
李中一
Li, Chung-Yi |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
醫學院 - 公共衛生學系 Department of Public Health |
| 論文出版年: | 2025 |
| 畢業學年度: | 113 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 111 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 交通事故 、高齡者 、樣態描述 、潛在類別分析 、道路角色 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Traffic crash, Older adults, Pattern description, Latent Class Analysis, Road user type |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:122 下載:1 |
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背景與目的:隨著全球高齡人口快速增加,高齡者交通安全已成為重要的公共衛生議題。年齡相關的生理退化被視為是提高高齡交通事故風險的重要因素。然而,高齡者群體內部亦存在異質性,現有研究多聚焦於事故嚴重程度(如住院率與致死率),較少關注高齡者的事故樣態分布(如人、時、地)。然而,了解高齡者的交通事故發生樣態分布,將有助於針對高齡者需求有效的介入措施,因此,本研究旨在探討不同高齡道路角色在各年齡層間之交通事故樣態差異,並進一步分析事故樣態的潛在結構。
方法:本研究使用2014年至2023年警政署傷亡道路交通事故資料(PTAR),針對65歲以上高齡者進行樣態分析與潛在類別分析(Latent Class Analysis, LCA)。第一階段針對事故發生的三個構面:「人」、「時」與「地」,分層比較不同道路角色(汽車駕駛者、機車騎士、腳踏車騎士與行人)與年齡層(65-74歲、75-84歲與85-104歲)的樣態特徵,並以55-64歲非高齡組最為對照組;第二階段則使用LCA辨識高齡者(65-104歲)交通事故在時間(梅雨季、平假日、時間)與地點(都市化地區、事故位置、號誌種類)的環境下之潛在集群,並比較不同集群中當事者特性之差異。
結果:第一部分研究結果顯示,高齡者事故樣態在性別、發生時間、地區、都市化程度與事故位置等構面存在明顯差異。不論年齡層如何,機車皆是事故占比最高的角色(44.4-55.7%)。男性占比較女性高(61.5% vs. 38.5%),且除行人外,其餘角色男性占比隨年齡增加而上升,行人則是唯一女性占相對較高的角色(49.3-63.1%);事故主要發生於早上時段,且隨年齡增加而上升(43.0%上升至50.2%),惟行人發生於晚上的事故佔比較高(22.5-34.5%)。事故地點方面,低都市化地區占比隨年齡增加而上升(15.4%上升至21.6%),特別是機車與腳踏車騎士(機車:15.3%上升至25.3%;腳踏車:15.9%上升至25.1%),而行人事故則多集中於高都市化地區(50.2-55.9%)。事故位置多發生於交叉路口(57.5%)與無號誌位置(60.8%)。第二部分LCA進一步辨識出三個事故群:都市交叉路口事故群(42%)、中低都市化路口事故群(23%)與無號誌路段事故群(35%)。地點變項的區辨力高於時間變項。各集群當事者特徵分布呈現顯著差異,行人與腳踏車騎士多集中於無號誌路段群,機車則較集中於中低都市化路口事故群(65.3%),而都市交叉路口事故群則以年輕高齡駕駛者為主(73.6%)與汽車駕駛者為主(25.44%)。
結論:本研究指出,高齡交通事故樣態呈現顯著的年齡層與道路角色異質性,這凸顯了未來研究與政策制定應考量道路角色與年齡層在高齡事故中的差異。同時,都市化程度與道路設施是高齡交通事故樣態之重要因素,本研究建議未來根據各地差異,加強交叉路口管制設施、改善腳踏車騎士及行人安全環境,並提供以需求為導向的交通運輸服務,以提升交通安全性並維持高齡人口的行動力。
With the rapid growth of the older population, traffic safety for older adults has become a pressing public health issue in Taiwan. Understanding the distribution of crash patterns among older adults can support the development of effective, targeted interventions. This study analyzed Taiwan’s Police Traffic Accident Registry (PTAR) from 2014 to 2023, focusing on individuals aged 65 and older. We conducted a descriptive analysis across the “person,” “time,” and “place” dimensions and applied Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to identify unobserved crash pattern clusters and associated characteristics. Results revealed distinct crash patterns by age group and road user type. Motorcycles were the most common vehicle involved, with a higher proportion of male victims, except for pedestrians. Crashes among older adults tended to occur in the morning, and their proportion increased with age. In low-urbanization areas, motorcycle and bicycle crashes rose with age, while pedestrian crashes were more common in highly urbanized areas. Most crashes occurred at intersections and unsignalized locations. LCA identified three crash clusters: (1) Urban Intersection Cluster, (2) Mid-to-Low Urbanized Intersection Cluster, and (3) Unsignalized Road Segment Cluster. Spatial variables showed stronger discriminatory power than temporal ones, and the distribution of party characteristics differed significantly across clusters. This study highlights urbanization level and infrastructure conditions as important factors influencing of crash patterns among older adults. Targeted interventions such as age-friendly intersection design, improved pedestrian infrastructure, and demand-responsive transport services are recommended to enhance safety while preserving mobility for the aging population.
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