本研究以Sager（ 2019）與 Shr et al.（ 2023）為基礎，使用2018 年至 2024年台灣行政院環境部空氣品質監測網之氣象資料，結合政府資料開放平台中警政署提供的交通事故資料，以及交通部高速公路局與國營臺灣鐵路股份有限公司的流量資料，探討空氣污染 以 PM2.5為指標）上升是否會影響由違規行為所導致的交通事故發生率，並納入交通流量的影響，進一步檢驗流量是否可能為空氣汙染影響交通事故的途徑之一。本研究採用 Poisson 模型進行估計，並以風向作為工具變數，以解決空氣污染與交通事故間可能存在的內生性問題，同時控制時間與地區的固定效果，以消除不可觀測的異質性干擾。
實證結果顯示，PM2.5濃度上升1 μg/m3，將導致由違規所引起的交通事故下降0.24%。而其中影響兩者之間關連的機制有兩點，1）風險態度改變，污染可能使駕駛者感知環境風險上升，進而改變個體行為，採取更謹慎的駕駛行為，減少違規與粗心導致的事故。2）迴避行為，污染加劇時，人們可能選擇減少非必要出行，導致交通流量下降，進而降低事故發生的可能性。研究也發現 PM2.5在針對不同風險的群體會有不同程度的影響，風險承受度高及低的人對於 PM2.5會有不同的反應。若將事故分地區以及季節來討論，北部地區污染增加會顯著減少事故，中南部則不顯著；秋冬時污染的提高也顯著降低事故發生，春夏影響則不明顯。由此發現北部地區的民眾相對於中南部地區的民眾對於空氣汙染的敏感度較高，且台灣民眾在秋冬空氣污染較嚴重的時間，會有趨避汙染的行為。本研究進一步指出，空氣污染在不同區間對於交通事故的影響效果會有不同，而影響的變化大小取決於研究地區污染程度的差異。若地區本身的汙染程度較低，高汙染日發生的頻率不高，則民眾在面對高汙染日發生時風險態度的改變不明顯，但認知受損的效果仍隨著汙染上升而增加，導致在高汙染區間PM2.5反而不會顯著抑制事故的發生。

Building on the frameworks of Sager (2019) and Shr et al. (2023), this study uses data from 2018 to 2024 to examine the effect of air pollution, measured by PM2.5, on traffic accidents caused by traffic violations in Taiwan, while also incorporating the role of traffic volume as a potential mediating factor. Using a Poisson model and wind direction as an instrumental variable to address potential endogeneity, we control for both time and regional fixed effects.
The results show that a 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration leads to a 0.24% decrease in violation-related traffic accidents. Two primary mechanisms explain this result: (1) changes in risk attitudes—drivers may become more cautious under perceived environmental risk; and (2) avoidance behavior—individuals may reduce non-essential travel during pollution episodes, lowering traffic volume. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that effects vary by region and season, with stronger responses in northern Taiwan and during autumn and winter. Additionally, the relationship between pollution and accidents depends on the baseline pollution level of the area, where higher pollution does not necessarily lead to stronger deterrence due to potential cognitive impairment.

中文部分
交通部，2023。「道安總動員」。（ https://roadsafety.tw）。
行政院，2023。「空氣污染防制大作戰—保護國人健康，讓臺灣環境永續」。（https://www.ey.gov.tw/Page/5A8A0CB5B41DA11E/e8819567-8f04-42e1-84efcbbe48b5cce2） （2023/01/11）。
黃乙芹, 侯文萱, 呂芊曄, 李岳蓁, 李佩珍, 陳怡臻, ... & 李中一，2021。「台灣成年民眾之室外空氣污染健康識能此查」。 Taiwan Journal of Publich Health/Taiwan Gong　Gong Wei Sheng Za Zhi， 40（ 5）。
衛生福利部，2024。「112 年國人死因統計結果」。 （https://www.mohw.gov.tw/cp-16-79055-1.html） （2024/06/17）。
英文部分
Barwick, P. J., Li, S., Lin, L., & Zou, E. Y. (2024). From fog to smog: The value of pollution information. American Economic Review, 114(5), 1338-1381.
Bergel-Hayat, R., Debbarh, M., Antoniou, C., & Yannis, G. (2013). Explaining the road accident risk: Weather effects. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 60, 456-465.
Bondy, M., Roth, S., & Sager, L. (2020). Crime is in the air: The contemporaneous relationship between air pollution and crime. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 7(3), 555-585.
Brook, R. D., Rajagopalan, S., Pope III, C. A., Brook, J. R., Bhatnagar, A., Diez-Roux, A. V., ... & Kaufman, J. D. (2010). Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation, 121(21), 2331-2378.
Burkhardt, J., Bayham, J., Wilson, A., Carter, E., Berman, J. D., O'Dell, K., ... & Pierce, J. R. (2019). The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 98, 102267.
Cadar, R. D., Boitor, M. R., & Dumitrescu, M. (2017). Effects of traffic volumes on accidents: The case of romania’s national roads. Geogr. Tech, 12(2), 20-29.
Chan, T. C., Pai, C. W., Wu, C. C., Hsu, J. C., Chen, R. J., Chiu, W. T., & Lam, C. (2022). Association of air pollution and weather factors with traffic injury severity: a study in Taiwan. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(12), 7442.
Chand, A., Jayesh, S., & Bhasi, A. B. (2021). Road traffic accidents: An overview of data sources, analysis techniques and contributing factors. Materials Today: Proceedings, 47, 5135-5141.
Coxe, S., West, S. G., & Aiken, L. S. (2009). The analysis of count data: A gentle introduction to Poisson regression and its alternatives. Journal of personality assessment, 91(2), 121-136.
Currie, J., & Neidell, M. (2005). Air pollution and infant health: what can we learn from California's recent experience?. The quarterly journal of economics, 120(3), 1003-1030.
Currie, J., & Walker, R. (2019). What do economists have to say about the Clean Air Act 50 years after the establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 3-26.
Deng, Y., He, J., Li, B., & Shen, X. (2024). Does air pollution cause more car accidents? Evidence from auto insurance claims. China Economic Review, 88, 102261.
Dickerson, A., Peirson, J., & Vickerman, R. (2000). Road accidents and traffic flows: an econometric investigation. Economica, 67(265), 101-121.
Eisenberg, D. (2004). The mixed effects of precipitation on traffic crashes. Accident analysis & prevention, 36(4), 637-647.
Guarnieri, M., & Balmes, J. R. (2014). Outdoor air pollution and asthma. The Lancet, 383(9928), 1581-1592.
Herrnstadt, E., Heyes, A., Muehlegger, E., & Saberian, S. (2021). Air pollution and criminal activity: Microgeographic evidence from Chicago. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 13(4), 70-100.
Høye, A. K., & Hesjevoll, I. S. (2020). Traffic volume and crashes and how crash and road characteristics affect their relationship–A meta-analysis. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 145, 105668.
Knittel, C. R., Miller, D. L., & Sanders, N. J. (2016). Caution, drivers! Children present: Traffic, pollution, and infant health. Review of Economics and Statistics, 98(2), 350-366.
Landrigan, P. J., Fuller, R., Acosta, N. J., Adeyi, O., Arnold, R., Baldé, A. B., ... & Zhong, M. (2018). The Lancet Commission on pollution and health. The lancet, 391(10119), 462-512.
Lu, J. G. (2020). Air pollution: A systematic review of its psychological, economic, and social effects. Current opinion in psychology, 32, 52-65.
Malin, F., Norros, I., & Innamaa, S. (2019). Accident risk of road and weather conditions on different road types. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 122, 181-188.
Manisalidis, I., Stavropoulou, E., Stavropoulos, A., & Bezirtzoglou, E. (2020). Environmental and health impacts of air pollution: a review. Frontiers in public health, 8, 14.
McEvoy, S. P., Stevenson, M. R., McCartt, A. T., Woodward, M., Haworth, C., Palamara, P., & Cercarelli, R. (2005). Role of mobile phones in motor vehicle crashes resulting in hospital attendance: a case-crossover study. Bmj, 331(7514), 428.
Pavlou, D., Christodoulou, G., & Yannis, G. (2023). The impact of weather conditions and driver characteristics on road safety on rural roads. Transportation research procedia, 72, 4081-4088.
Pope III, C. A., Ezzati, M., & Dockery, D. W. (2009). Fine-particulate air pollution and life expectancy in the United States. New England journal of medicine, 360(4), 376-386.
Riley, R., de Preux, L., Capella, P., Mejia, C., Kajikawa, Y., & de Nazelle, A. (2021). How do we effectively communicate air pollution to change public attitudes and behaviours? A review. Sustainability Science, 1-21.
Rolison, J. J., Regev, S., Moutari, S., & Feeney, A. (2018). What are the factors that contribute to road accidents? An assessment of law enforcement views, ordinary drivers’ opinions, and road accident records. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 115, 11-24.
Sager, L. (2019). Estimating the effect of air pollution on road safety using atmospheric temperature inversions. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 98, 102250.
Shetty, S. S., Deepthi, D., Harshitha, S., Sonkusare, S., Naik, P. B., & Madhyastha, H. (2023). Environmental pollutants and their effects on human health. Heliyon, 9(9).
Shr, Y. H., Hsu, W., Hwang, B. F., & Jung, C. R. (2023). Air quality and risky behaviors on roads. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 118, 102786.
Strayer, D. L., Drews, F. A., & Crouch, D. J. (2006). A comparison of the cell phone driver and the drunk driver. Human factors, 48(2), 381-391.
Suglia, S. F., Gryparis, A., Wright, R. O., Schwartz, J., & Wright, R. J. (2008). Association of black carbon with cognition among children in a prospective birth cohort study. American journal of epidemiology, 167(3), 280-286.
Theofilatos, A., & Yannis, G. (2014). A review of the effect of traffic and weather characteristics on road safety. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 72, 244-256.
Usman, T., Fu, L., & Miranda-Moreno, L. F. (2012). A disaggregate model for quantifying the safety effects of winter road maintenance activities at an operational level. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 48, 368-378.
Wang, Z., Lu, M., Yuan, X., Zhang, J., & Van De Wetering, H. (2013). Visual traffic jam analysis based on trajectory data. IEEE transactions on visualization and computer graphics, 19(12), 2159-2168.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT press.