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研究生: 蔡綉蓉
Tsai, Hsiu-Jng
論文名稱: 以多評準決策方法評估水災風險之研究─以高屏地區為例
Evaluating the Flood Risk by Using the MCDM Model -- A Case Study on Kao-Ping Region
指導教授: 吳銘志
Wu, Ming-Chee
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 地球科學系碩士在職專班
Department of Earth Sciences (on the job class)
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 96
中文關鍵詞: 水災風險多評準決策決策實驗室分析法分析網路處理法最佳化妥協解法
外文關鍵詞: flood risk, MCDM, DEMATEL, DANP, VIKOR
相關次數: 點閱:170下載:3
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  • 臺灣的氣候屬於副熱帶及熱帶季風氣候區,夏季常有豪雨及颱風,容易造成水患。因此,近年來關於水災風險之議題逐漸受到重視。過去的研究關於水災風險之介紹與其影響之準則並不多見,瞭解水災風險之評估準則與構面關係,對相關單位改善水災風險之績效相當重要。為了探討水災風險評估準則間的相互關係及其影響權重,本研究採用整合多評準決策模型,即結合決策實驗室分析法,建立各構面/評估準則之間相互影響的網路關係圖,並以決策實驗室分析法為基礎之分析網路處理法和最佳化妥協解法,取得各構面/評估準則間之相互影響關係、影響權重和理想值之差距。根據實證分析結果顯示,構面及評估準則間具有相互關聯性及回饋性之影響關係;透過影響網路關聯圖發現,當相關單位在改善水災風險時,財產脆弱度之構面應被優先改善。而根據分析網路處理法之研究發現:在十二項評估評估準則中,淹水深度和淹水時間為最重要的評估準則,其次是河川距離、救難設施、土地利用、建物狀況、水位上升率、水流流速、脆弱人口數、總人口數、縣市財政和平均所得。專家們建議:相關單位改善其水災風險時,雖然必須同時考量所有評估準則,但淹水深度和淹水時間應放在最重要的位置。由於高雄地區有較高的水災風險績效值,因此專家們認為,當相關單位改善水災風險時,可以高雄地區為最適之典範,如此得以達到水災風險績效之最大化。此外,當決策者改善水災風險時,可根據評估準則最大之差距為優先改善,以達到水災風險績效之理想值。

    Taiwan’s climate is subtropical and tropical monsoon, so there are frequently heavy rains and typhoons in the summer causing flooding easily. Therefore, the issues of flooding risk have attracted more and more attention. There is not much past studies on the risks of flood guidelines explored its impact. Understand the relationship between flood risk assessment Evaluation Criteria and Dimensions, it is quite important for the relevant units to improve the performance of the flood risk. For exploring the interrelationship and influential weights among flood risk, this study utilizes a hybrid multiple Evaluation Criteria decision making (MCDM) combined with decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and DEMATEL-based analytical network process (DANP) to build influential network relation map (INRM) and find out the influential weights of Dimensions/Evaluation Criteria, and VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) to improve the gaps. The empirical findings reveal that Dimensions/Evaluation Criteria have feedback and interrelationships. Based on INRM, the dimension that related public Agencies should improve first when improving flood risk is Property Fragility. According to DANP, in the proposed twelve Evaluation Criteria, Water Depth and Flood Duration are the most significant influential Evaluation Criteria, followed by Distance from River, Rescue Facilities, Land Use, Building Condition, Water Raising, Water Velocity, Vulnerable Population, Population, City and county Finance, and Average Income. Experts recommend: related public Agencies should improve Water Depth and Flood Duration first, though they must also consider all other Evaluation Criteria. In addition, because Kaohsiung has lower flood risk, Therefore experts consider Kaohsiung as a good example when improving flood risk to achieve the aspiration level of flood risk. In addition, when the management improve the flood risk, for the priority to improve standards in accordance with the maximum gap in order to achieve the aspiration level of flood risk performance.

    摘 要 iii ABSTRACT iv 誌 謝 xi 目 錄 xii 表目錄 xiv 圖目錄 xv 第一章 緒論 1 1-1 前言 1 1-2 研究目的 2 1-3研究步驟與流程 3 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2-1災害損失、危險度、脆弱度釋義 5 2-2水災風險評估模式發展 8 2-3水災風險評估模型 18 2-3-1淹水危險度 23 2-3-2生命脆弱度 24 2-3-3財產脆弱度 26 第三章 研究方法 28 3-1根據DEMATEL以建構影響網路關係圖(INRM) 29 3-2 運用DANP以獲得評估準則之影響權重 31 3-3透過VIKOR計算差距 35 第四章 水災風險評估之實證分析 36 4-1資料蒐集 36 4-2水災風險影響關係之建構 42 4-3評估準則影響權重之計算 48 4-4妥協排序法之差距 51 4-5管理意涵及討論 52 第五章 結論與建議 55 5-1結論 55 5-2建議 56 參考文獻 57 附錄 62 附錄一、調查問卷 63 附錄二、調查結果數據登錄表 68 附錄三、調查結果數據運算 84 (A)根據DEMATEL建構INRM 85 (B)藉DANP以獲得評估準則之影響權重 89 (C)以VIKOR計算差距 95

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