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研究生: 許峰旗
Chi, Hsu, Feng
論文名稱: 情境分析及環境效益分析之整合應用-以發電廠為例
Integrated Application of Scenario and Eco-Efficiency Analysis - A Case Study Of Power Plant
指導教授: 福島康裕
Yasuhiro, Fukushima
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 環境工程學系
Department of Environmental Engineering
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 76
中文關鍵詞: 敏感度分析情境分析生命週期評估生態效益
外文關鍵詞: Life Cycle Analysis, Eco-Efficiency, Scenario Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis
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  • BASF生態效益分析可對製程及產品等各種方案進行評估,將其環境及經濟表現結合並繪於生態效益目錄上。在計算其環境及經濟表現時乃是從生命週期之觀點進行計算。
    本研究拓展了BASF生態效益分析以顯示各種方案在其生命週期中生態效益的變化,並以「軌跡」的方式顯示於延伸生態效益目錄中,與原本BASF之生態效益目錄將各方案以「點」顯示有所不同。延伸生態效益目錄的資訊被更進一步地整合,將其軌跡到對角線的距離繪於整合生態效益目錄中。
    本研究更進一步地對情境分析進行整合,使本方法論具備模擬在不同情境下各方案之生態效益的變化。情境分析中乃利用外部情境參數的排列組合以定義並產生各種情境。
    這種定義及產生情境的方式可能會導致情境數量過多,使結果的解讀變得困難。為了避免這種情況發生,有必要對各外部情境參數進行過濾,並挑出最重要的幾個。如此一來不但可使情境系統單純化,也可維持所計算結果的準確度。過濾乃藉敏感度分析對各情境參數進行評估。
    本研究以一氣電共生廠做為案例研究。廠方在營運上有兩個選擇,1)繼續使用原發電機組,及2)淘汰原發電機組並建造新廠。這兩個選擇在本研究中作為製程的方案進行評估;研究中針對此二方案建立一情境系統,並計算其在環境及經濟上的表現,將結果繪於延伸及整合式生態效益目錄中。而情境系統所使用的外部情境參數也以敏感度分析對其重要性進行了評估。

    The BASF Eco-efficiency Analysis assesses process and product alternatives by combining their environmental and economic performances and depicting these values in Eco-efficiency Portfolio by BASF. The performances are accounted for the whole life cycle.
    This study extends the BASF Eco-efficiency to show the detailed eco-efficiency change along the life time of alternatives. This is depicted by tracks in the extended Eco-efficiency Portfolio, which is different from Eco-efficiency Portfolio by BASF showing the overall performances as points. The information in extended Eco-efficiency Portfolio is further integrated by measuring the distance change of tracks to the diagonal line. The results are illustrated by integrated Eco-efficiency Portfolio.
    In addition, scenario analysis is also integrated with Eco-efficiency Analysis. This enables the methodology to simulate the eco-efficiency change under different scenarios. The scenarios are generated by combining choices of different external scenario parameters.
    The process of scenario generation might result in too many scenarios, making result interpretation difficult. To avoid this situation, the external scenario parameters need to be filtered to pick out the most important ones. This will keep the scenario system simple yet capable of delivering results with satisfactory. This filtration is done by performing sensitivity analysis in regarding to each external scenario parameter.
    The whole study is demonstrated based on the case study of a co-generation power plant. There are two choices for the company, which are 1) continue on using current system and 2) construct new system and dismantle current one. By taking these two choices as the alternatives, the methodology proposed in this study constructs scenarios for these alternatives and assesses the eco-efficiency change of them along their life time. Then depict the result by extended and integrated Eco-efficiency Portfolio. The external scenario parameters are further examined by sensitivity analysis to rank their importance level.

    Abstract i 摘要 ii 致謝 iii Table of Contents iv Figure Index v Table Index vi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Preface 1 1.2 Objective 4 1.3 Thesis structure 5 Chapter 2 Methodology Review 6 2.1 BASF Eco-efficiency Analysis 6 2.2 Scenario Development 10 2.3 Sensitivity Analysis 11 Chapter 3 Scenario Analysis Integrated Eco-efficiency Analysis 13 3.1 Major concepts 13 3.2 Methodology 15 3.2.1 Goal and Scope Definition 15 3.2.2 Power Plant Model 19 3.2.3 Scenario development 23 3.2.4 Data recording 29 3.2.5 LCIA calculation 30 3.2.6 Cost calculation 32 3.2.7 Data Integration and Plotting Eco-efficiency Portfolio 36 3.3 Conclusion 48 Chapter 4 Refine Scenarios Using Sensitivity Analysis 49 4.1 Objective Revisits 49 4.2 Methodology 49 4.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis by Uniform Variation 50 4.2.2 Sensitivity Analysis by Extreme Variation 53 4.3 Conclusion and Discussion 55 Chapter 5 Conclusions 58 Appendix 60 Reference 75

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