| 研究生: |
林柏佑 LIN, PO-YU |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
整合劣化預測、碳排放與路網服務公平性之高速公路鋪面養護維修排程多目標最佳化研究 Multi-Objective Optimization of Freeway Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation Scheduling Integrating Deterioration Prediction, Carbon Emissions, and Network Service Equity |
| 指導教授: |
楊士賢
YANG, Shih-Hsien |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 土木工程學系 Department of Civil Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 161 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 鋪面養護維修排程 、劣化預測 、NSGA-II 、碳排放 、路網服務公平性 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | pavement maintenance and rehabilitation scheduling, deterioration prediction, NSGA-II, carbon emissions, network service equity |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:77 下載:1 |
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台灣高速公路路網隨服役年限增加,鋪面劣化、養護經費限制及永續治理需求日益明顯。傳統鋪面養護維修(Maintenance and Rehabilitation, M&R)排程多以成本或鋪面績效作為單一決策目標,且劣化預測、碳排放、服務公平性及施工限制多分別處理,難以在多年期資源配置整合不同管理目標。為此,本研究以國道一號新營工務段為案例,建立整合本土化劣化預測、環境社會治理(Environmental, Social and Governance, ESG)、生命週期評估(Life Cycle Assessment, LCA)與多目標最佳化之多年期鋪面養護維修排程模式。
研究以車道百公尺為決策單元,採信賴域反射最小平方法(Trust Region Reflective Least Squares, TRRLS)校正車轍、裂縫及 IRI 模型,並透過決策樹判定維修工法;再建立成本、碳排放、績效曲線下面積及吉尼係數四項目標,納入工程施工限制,以非支配排序遺傳演算法第二代(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II, NSGA-II)搜尋 Pareto 非支配解,並以歐幾里得距離法與 AHP 選定折衷方案。
結果顯示,車轍模型校正後 RMSE 降低約 50%,Bias 由 −0.1416 in 降至 +0.0023 in;裂縫模型參數縮減後條件數降低約 11 個數量級,改善參數可辨識性;IRI 縮減模型五折交叉驗證 RMSE 僅較全資料校正增加約 0.3%。整體而言,本土化校正可降低系統性偏差,但裂縫與 IRI 對個別路段之解釋能力仍有限。NSGA-II 六組隨機種子所得 Pareto Front 具初步重現性,惟部分執行尚未完全平台化。折衷解顯示,AHP 方案反映績效優先之專家偏好,以較高成本與碳排放換取較佳路網績效與服務公平性;歐幾里得距離方案則在四項目標間呈現較均衡之折衷,且兩方案均符合年度預算限制。本研究可量化不同決策偏好下之經濟、環境、績效與公平性取捨,作為高速公路多年期養護資源配置與永續鋪面資產管理之決策支援。
Taiwan's freeway network faces growing pavement deterioration, tight maintenance budgets, and rising demands for sustainable, equitable infrastructure management. This study develops a five-year pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) scheduling framework integrating localized deterioration prediction, environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations, life-cycle assessment, and multi-objective optimization. National Freeway No. 1 from km 251.1 to 320.0 (Xinying Maintenance Section) was divided into 4,134 lane-based 100 m units (20,670 unit-year positions). Rutting, cracking and International Roughness Index (IRI) models were calibrated with 300 field observations using the trust-region reflective least-squares method and linked to an engineering decision tree for treatment assignment. Four objectives — discounted cost, carbon emissions, area under the pavement performance curve (AUPC), and the Gini coefficient of network service inequality — were optimized under budget and constructability constraints using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with compromise solutions selected by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Euclidean distance method. Calibration reduced the rutting RMSE by about 50% and bias from −0.1416 to +0.0023 in; parameter reduction lowered the cracking-model condition number by roughly 11 orders of magnitude; the reduced IRI model increased cross-validation RMSE by only 0.3%. The Pareto fronts were preliminarily reproducible across six random seeds, although not all runs fully converged.
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