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研究生: 林柏佑
LIN, PO-YU
論文名稱: 整合劣化預測、碳排放與路網服務公平性之高速公路鋪面養護維修排程多目標最佳化研究
Multi-Objective Optimization of Freeway Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation Scheduling Integrating Deterioration Prediction, Carbon Emissions, and Network Service Equity
指導教授: 楊士賢
YANG, Shih-Hsien
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 161
中文關鍵詞: 鋪面養護維修排程 、劣化預測 、NSGA-II 、碳排放 、路網服務公平性
外文關鍵詞: pavement maintenance and rehabilitation scheduling, deterioration prediction, NSGA-II, carbon emissions, network service equity
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  • 台灣高速公路路網隨服役年限增加,鋪面劣化、養護經費限制及永續治理需求日益明顯。傳統鋪面養護維修(Maintenance and Rehabilitation, M&R)排程多以成本或鋪面績效作為單一決策目標,且劣化預測、碳排放、服務公平性及施工限制多分別處理,難以在多年期資源配置整合不同管理目標。為此,本研究以國道一號新營工務段為案例,建立整合本土化劣化預測、環境社會治理(Environmental, Social and Governance, ESG)、生命週期評估(Life Cycle Assessment, LCA)與多目標最佳化之多年期鋪面養護維修排程模式。
    研究以車道百公尺為決策單元,採信賴域反射最小平方法(Trust Region Reflective Least Squares, TRRLS)校正車轍、裂縫及 IRI 模型,並透過決策樹判定維修工法;再建立成本、碳排放、績效曲線下面積及吉尼係數四項目標,納入工程施工限制,以非支配排序遺傳演算法第二代(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II, NSGA-II)搜尋 Pareto 非支配解,並以歐幾里得距離法與 AHP 選定折衷方案。
    結果顯示,車轍模型校正後 RMSE 降低約 50%,Bias 由 −0.1416 in 降至 +0.0023 in;裂縫模型參數縮減後條件數降低約 11 個數量級,改善參數可辨識性;IRI 縮減模型五折交叉驗證 RMSE 僅較全資料校正增加約 0.3%。整體而言,本土化校正可降低系統性偏差,但裂縫與 IRI 對個別路段之解釋能力仍有限。NSGA-II 六組隨機種子所得 Pareto Front 具初步重現性,惟部分執行尚未完全平台化。折衷解顯示,AHP 方案反映績效優先之專家偏好,以較高成本與碳排放換取較佳路網績效與服務公平性;歐幾里得距離方案則在四項目標間呈現較均衡之折衷,且兩方案均符合年度預算限制。本研究可量化不同決策偏好下之經濟、環境、績效與公平性取捨,作為高速公路多年期養護資源配置與永續鋪面資產管理之決策支援。

    Taiwan's freeway network faces growing pavement deterioration, tight maintenance budgets, and rising demands for sustainable, equitable infrastructure management. This study develops a five-year pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) scheduling framework integrating localized deterioration prediction, environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations, life-cycle assessment, and multi-objective optimization. National Freeway No. 1 from km 251.1 to 320.0 (Xinying Maintenance Section) was divided into 4,134 lane-based 100 m units (20,670 unit-year positions). Rutting, cracking and International Roughness Index (IRI) models were calibrated with 300 field observations using the trust-region reflective least-squares method and linked to an engineering decision tree for treatment assignment. Four objectives — discounted cost, carbon emissions, area under the pavement performance curve (AUPC), and the Gini coefficient of network service inequality — were optimized under budget and constructability constraints using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with compromise solutions selected by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Euclidean distance method. Calibration reduced the rutting RMSE by about 50% and bias from −0.1416 to +0.0023 in; parameter reduction lowered the cracking-model condition number by roughly 11 orders of magnitude; the reduced IRI model increased cross-validation RMSE by only 0.3%. The Pareto fronts were preliminarily reproducible across six random seeds, although not all runs fully converged.

    摘要 iii ABSTRACT iv 誌謝 vii 目錄 viii 表目錄 xi 圖目錄 xiii 第1章 緒論 15 1.1 研究背景與動機 15 1.2 研究目的 16 1.3 研究限制 17 第2章 文獻回顧 19 2.1 結合ESG與LCA的永續發展應用 19 2.1.1 環境面(E) 20 2.1.2 社會面(S) 22 2.1.3 治理面(G) 26 2.2 鋪面績效預測模型 27 2.2.1 鋪面績效預測模型與MEPDG本土化發展 28 2.2.2 鋪面養護維修排程中劣化預測模型之應用 29 2.2.3 績效預測模型本土化校正方法 29 2.3 多目標最佳化方法論 32 2.3.1 多目標最佳化問題之分類與比較 32 2.3.2 多目標族群式最佳化演算法之比較 34 第3章 研究方法 36 3.1 路網單元建立與基礎資料建置 36 3.1.1 交通載荷與時序特徵 37 3.1.2 鋪面結構與材料參數 41 3.1.3 鋪面檢測破壞 42 3.2 鋪面績效預測模型校正與驗證 43 3.2.1 鋪面績效預測模型公式 44 3.2.2 校正問題之非線性最小平方表述 47 3.2.3 TRRLS原理 47 3.2.4 校正之計算程序 52 3.2.5 驗證指標 53 3.3 各績效模型之校正設定與維修工法判定 54 3.3.1 參數可行域之制定原則 54 3.3.2 車轍模型之參數向量與可行域 55 3.3.3 裂縫模型之參數向量與可行域 56 3.3.4 IRI模型之參數向量與可行域 65 3.3.5 養護維修工法決策樹 71 3.4 養護維修排程之多目標函數定義 73 3.4.1 最小化碳排放 73 3.4.2 最小化成本 76 3.4.3 最大化績效曲線下面積 77 3.4.4 最小化吉尼係數 78 3.5 專家問卷調查 80 3.5.1 最短施工長度限制 80 3.5.2 縱向路段工法衝突 81 3.5.3 養護維修排程間隔 82 3.5.4 維修效益與鋪面劣化評估 82 3.6 多目標最佳化模型 83 3.6.1 多目標最佳化基本概念 85 3.6.2 遺傳演算法基本原理 86 3.6.3 NSGA-II原理 87 3.6.4 決策變數、編碼與工法解碼規則 89 3.6.5 邊界條件設定 91 3.6.6 遺傳運算子之工程邏輯設計 92 3.6.7 演算法參數設定與終止條件 93 3.6.8 系統整合與動態演化流程 94 3.7 最佳折衷解之選定方法 96 3.7.1 歐幾里得距離法 98 3.7.2 層級分析法 98 第4章 研究結果與分析 101 4.1 鋪面績效預測模型校正與驗證結果 101 4.1.1 車轍模型校正與驗證結果 101 4.1.2 裂縫模型校正與驗證結果 106 4.1.3 IRI模型校正與驗證結果 115 4.1.4 校正結果綜合評估與文獻比較 122 4.1.5 最終校正模型與係數彙整 124 4.2 NSGA-II 結果分析討論 126 4.2.1 初始參數設定之終止機制診斷 126 4.2.2 最大世代數之收斂探測與設定 128 4.2.3 演算法收斂性檢核 130 4.2.4 四目標間相關性分析 132 4.2.5 Pareto Front 之結構與空間分布 133 4.2.6 最佳折衷解之評選 135 4.2.7 穩健性驗證 140 第5章 結論與建議 144 5.1 研究結論 144 5.2 研究建議 145 參考文獻 147 附錄A 158

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