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研究生: 雷瑟琳
Reyes, Grethel Estrada
論文名稱: Presidential Election in Latin America and Their Effect on The Stock Market: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru
Presidential Election in Latin America and Their Effect on The Stock Market: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru
指導教授: 楊曉瑩
Yang, Ann Shawing
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所
Institute of International Management
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 98
外文關鍵詞: Presidential election, Latin America, Stock Market, quantile data regression, correlation data regression, ordinary least squared model, VaR.
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  • The presidential elections in Latin American countries has become an important factor for the investors in the stock market. Elections for presidents in each country are important factor to take care of because of the influence that it may have in the stock market if there is a change in the government ruling the country in that moment or if the ideologies of the person running for president can make reforms that can affect the stock market. However, economic news are not the only effect on the movement of stock market. The political environmental and other procedures are frequently careful responsible for such movements. There is an tentative and theoretical literature debating on the effects of these other measures, especially Political Cycles on the macro economy, which is explicitly of attention in this research paper. The study used a monthly time series data from October 1996 to December 2017 of the Latin America presidential elections and the stock market returns. Using a Quantile Regression model for each of the countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru. We found highly significant negative relation between the Returns and the Political cycle. Our study shows that two of the Latin American Countries Peru and Brazil has a positive relationship between the returns and the partisan cycle, on the other hand we also identify a negative relation for Chile and Colombia.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS V TABLE OF CONTENTS VI LIST OF TABLE VIII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background. 1 1.1.1 Presidential Elections and The Stock Market. 1 1.1.2 Presidential Elections in Latin America. 2 1.2 Research Contribution and Purpose. 4 1.2.1 Countries for Our Study. 4 1.3 Research Procedure. 7 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 9 2.1 Theoretical Background. 9 2.1.1 Behavioral Finance Theory. 9 2.1.2 Efficient Market Hypothesis. 10 2.1.3 Political Business Cycle Theory. 11 2.2 Political Uncertainty and Stock Market. 12 2.2.1 Politics Effect in Economy. 14 2.2.2 Political Events Effect in Stock Prices. 16 2.3 Relationship between Politics and Stock Market. 18 2.3.1 Stock Returns and Political Cycles. 20 2.3.2 Politics and Volatility. 24 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 27 3.1 Data. 27 3.1.1 Financial Variables. 28 3.1.2 Political Variables. 31 3.2 Regression Model. 34 3.2.1 Quantile Regression Model. 35 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 36 4.1 Descriptive Statistics. 36 4.2 Correlation Analysis. 48 4.3 Multicollinearity Test. 55 4.4 Regression and Quantile Regression Analysis. 57 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 84 5.1 Research Conclusion. 84 5.2 Research Contribution. 86 5.3 Research Limitation and Suggestion. 87 REFERENCES 88 APPENDIX 93 Ramsey test brazil 93 Ramsey Test Chile: 94 Ramsey Test Colombia: 95 Ramsey Test Peru: 96

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