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研究生: 高建華
Kao, Chien-Hua
論文名稱: 新產品預告策略與股價之關係
New Product Preannouncement Strategies and Stock Prices
指導教授: 江明憲
Chiang, Min-Hsien
陳建維
Chen, Chien-Wei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際企業研究所
Institute of International Business
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 41
中文關鍵詞: 新產品宣告預告財富效果事件研究法
外文關鍵詞: event study, preannouncement, wealth effect, new product, announcement
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  •     摘要
     新產品預告(NPPA)在新產品正式上市前的行銷活動中扮演著重要的角色。
    雖然有許多行銷研究的論文顯示,新產品預告活動對公司有正面的效果,但是並沒有實際財務上的證據支持新產品預告活動的重要貢獻。
     因此,本研究將新產品預告策略的因素加入模型之中,來探討新產品預告策略(NPPA strategies)對於產品正式上市宣告事件的股價財富效果有何影響。這是第一篇試圖說明新產品預告策略與公司股價之間關係的文章。
     我們預期新產品預告將會增強新產品正式上市宣告事件的股價財富效果。我們希望以實際股價報酬的證據來說明新產品預告活動(NPPA)對公司的正面效果。
     本文中,我們由華爾街日報和雷克思蘭克思全球學術資料庫之中來蒐集新產品正式上市宣告和預告新聞報導作事件樣本。我們採用事件研究法來衡量股價異常報酬,並用複迴歸模型來檢驗本研究的假設。
     我們的研究結果發現,新產品預告對於新產品正式宣告的股價財富效果有顯著正向的影響。愈早預告與愈多種類訊息釋出的新產品預告策略會對股價財富效果有顯著的正向影響。規模較大的公司採取愈頻繁的預告策略、規模較小的公司採取較不頻繁預告的策略,對財富效果有顯著正向的影響。只有在規模較小的公司中,預告釋出愈大量訊息,對財富效果才有顯著正向的影響。公司的規模大小是影響新產品預告策略與財富效果之間關係的重要變數。

        Abstract
     New product preannouncement (NPPA) plays an important role in prelaunch marketing activities of a new product introduction. Although a great deal of marketing research show that the influence of NPPAs is positive for firms, there has not been any financial empirical study to support the importance of NPPA. Thus, in our study, we make a start by adding NPPA strategy factors into our models to understand the role of NPPA strategies in determining the wealth effect of official new product launch announcements on shareholder values. To our knowledge, this is the first study to document the influence of NPPA strategies on stock prices.
     We hypothesize that the NPPAs will enhance the wealth effect of official new product launch announcement.
     In this paper, we collect a sample of announcements of official new product launches and new product preannouncements (NPPA) by firms from the Wall Street Journal and the LexisNexis Academic database. We use the event study methodology to measure the abnormal return in the stock market and run multiple regression models to test our hypothesis.
     Our results support that the wealth effect of official new product launch announcement with NPPAs is significantly greater than that without NPPAs. Earlier preannouncements, and a wider variety of cues published in the new product preannouncements, may lead to a greater wealth effect. The NPPA interval is significantly negatively related to the wealth effect in larger firms but positively in smaller firms. And the NPPA volume just significantly positively related to the wealth effect in smaller firms. Firm size plays a significant moderating role.

        Content Chapter 1.Introduction 1 Chapter 2. Literature Review and Research Hypotheses 4  2.1 The Importance of NPPA strategies 4  2.2 The Wealth Effect of New Product Preannouncements and Official    Announcements 6  2.3 Timing of NPPA 7  2.4 Interval of NPPA 8  2.5 Volume of NPPA 9  2.6 Diversity of NPPA 9  2.7 Control Variables 11  2.8 Conceptual Framework 13 Chapter 3. Sample and Descriptive Statistic 15  3.1 Sample collection 15  3.2 Event Study & Dependent Variable 16  3.3 Independent variables 17  3.4 Control Variables 19  3.5 Moderators 20  3.6 Cross-Sectional Analysis and Independent Variables 20 Chapter 4. Empirical Results 22  4.1 Sample Characteristics and Descriptive Statistics 22  4.2 Difference in Return Response for Announcement between With-NPPA group    and Without-NPPA Group 23  4.3 Cross-Sectional Regression Analyses 24 Chapter 5. Conclusion 29 References 37

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