本研究目的在於測試下列理論的可行性：1)茶葉價格、咖啡價格、人口數目、GDP和貨物運費等五個變數對於美國茶葉需求量的影響；2)咖啡可視為茶葉的替代品；3)茶葉是否為高級、中級或次級貨品；4)預測西元2010年美國對茶葉的需求量。在研究過程中乃採用迴歸分析軟體E-Views執行三種線性對數迴歸模式。

　　本研究採用美國國際貿易協會(U.S. International Trade Commission)、世界行銷統計資料庫(World Marketing Data and Statistics)、美國經濟分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)、美國農業部經濟研究服務部門(USDA/Economic Research Service)和美國人口統計部(U.S. Census Bureau)等機構於西元1989年1月到西元2004年6月間所提供的資料及數據進行分析。

　　本研究結果如下：1)再上述的五個變數中，僅美國人口和GDP兩個變數對美國茶葉需求量有顯著影響；2)茶葉跟咖啡互為替代用品；3)在美國市場中茶葉被視為次級貨品。

　　另外經由本研究我們預測在西元2010年美國的年茶葉需求量為3億3千6百23萬磅，平均每人每年約消費茶葉1.08磅。

　　在未來的研究方向上，本文建議可對美國茶葉市場做更細部的分區市場調查及分析，以便針對區域性的消費習慣做適當的茶葉行銷規劃和設計。

　The purpose of this thesis is to test for the following hypothesis: 1) that the following variables a) tea price, b) coffee price, c) population, d) GDP, and e) shipping costs have an influence on tea’s demand in the US; 2) that coffee is a substitute good for tea; 3) that tea is a normal, luxury or inferior good. Further, I will do analyses that forecast the demand for tea in the US for the year 2010. To accomplish these tests this research will use the regression package E-Views to run three log linear regression models.

　Regarding data and sources, quarterly data beginning in January in 1989 and ending in June in 2004 was collected from the following sources; U.S. International Trade Commission, World Marketing Data and Statistics (WMDS), Bureau of Economic Analysis, the USDA/Economic Research Service, and the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition, I conducted telephone interviews with representatives of Taiwan’s leading agricultural organic certification bureaus (MOA TOPA, and ORG).

　The results of the hypothesis tests are: 1) of the variables mentioned above, only US population and GDP are statistically significant in determining the demand for tea in the US; 2) tea and coffee are substitute goods; 3) tea is an inferior good in the US market.

　Results from our forecasting model estimates that 336.23 million pounds of tea will be consumed in the US in 2010; that is roughly 1.08 pounds of tea consumed per capita.

　Further research for tea demand in the US could focus on regional differences regarding tea consumption within the US in order to find the best location for a high quality tea distribution center.

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