臺灣為一四面環海之海島國家，國際貿易對我國尤其重要，其中又以海運運輸為主。但近年來，因全球經濟不景氣影響及其他亞太地區港埠的積極發展，台灣進出口櫃量漸漸降低。本研究以雙層模型及使用者均衡為基礎，將航商與貨主之決策行為分別以上、下層架構，互相約束與影響，並利用變分不等式與不動點定理將其轉變為Mathematical Programming with Equilibrium Constraints (MPEC)問題，再進一步利用拉式鬆弛法將其轉換為混合整數非線性規劃問題進行求解。此模型可用以評估外在環境變化對國際貨櫃航運網路可能造成的影響，使我國之港埠經營者、航商以及貨主可提早擬定因應策略，提升我國在國際航運市場的地位。

As an island economic system, Taiwan is highly dependent on international trade. Among all transportation modes, shipping is the most important way to import and export cargo. Unfortunately, the total number of TEUs transported through the Taiwanese ports gradually declines in recent years because of the global economic depression and development of neighbor ports. To forecast the international cargo flows so that government agencies can make policy decision based on the results, we develop a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) based on bi-level programming and User equilibrium. In the bi-level model, upper level optimization problem is referred to as the carrier’s problem where the objective is to minimize the costs. The lower level program is referred to as the shippers’ user equilibrium problem. The upper level and lower level programs interact with each other and determine the final container flows. We transform this bi-level programming to a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) model and then convert the MPEC model to a MINLP problem. The model can help carriers, shippers and port operators to forms strategies against the changeable environment of global maritime market by forecasting the trend.

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