傳統上，央行多以貨幣政策來維持物價穩定並以個體審慎政策維持金融穩定，2008 年發生的全球金融風暴嚴重衝擊金融體系，各國開始實行總體審慎政策避免面臨嚴重的金融失衡，而總體審慎政策工具更成為各國中央銀行用來抑制房價的重要政策，其中，以貸款成數（loan-to-value ratio, LTV ratio）政策最受矚目。過去的文獻在探討總體審慎政策的效果時，著重討論其帶來的效益，卻鮮少有文獻探討實施總體審慎政策所帶來的成本，也就是在抑制房價的同時也衝擊到房地產市場，後續產生的連鎖效應可能對一國的經濟成長與通貨膨脹產生負面影響。因此，本文使用加權平均法與敘事法（Narrative Approach） 識別我國央行實施的 LTV 政策，並使用局部投影法（Local Projection）分析我國實施的 LTV 政策對經濟成長與通貨膨脹的影響。結果顯示我國實施的緊縮性 LTV 政策確實對經濟成長產生負面衝擊，而對通貨膨脹的影響較不明顯。

Traditionally, central banks have used monetary policies to maintain price stability and micro-prudential policies to maintain financial stability. Since the financial crisis and recession from 2007 to 2009, a set of macro-prudential policies is aiming at containing systemic risks and thus promoting financial stability have gain much more attention. A large amount of literature has shown that central banks can mitigate the house price hikes by using macro-prudential instruments. However, the effects of such instruments on output and inflation are unknown. In this paper, we explore the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on output and inflation in Taiwan. To measure the changes in LTV limit, weighted-average LTV is calculated and narrative approach is applied to identify the LTV policies. For the empirical analysis, we use local projection method to analyze the impact of LTV policy on economic growth and inflation. The results show that lowering LTV limits has significant negative impact on the economic growth, while the effect on inflation is obscure. The evidence also indicates asymmetric effects. A tightening LTV policy generates large effects than a loosening one does.

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