| 研究生: |
陳晉漢 Chen, Jin-Han |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
日本金融市場中混合資產配置策略之實證分析 Hybrid Asset Allocation Strategies in the Japanese Financial Market: An Empirical Analysis |
| 指導教授: |
顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2025 |
| 畢業學年度: | 113 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 51 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 混合資產配置策略(HAA) 、日本金融市場 、動態投資組合策略 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA) Strategy, Japanese Financial Market, Dynamic Portfolio Strategy |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:23 下載:3 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
本研究旨在探討混合資產配置策略(Hybrid Asset Allocation, HAA)於日本金融市場中的應用表現,並評估其在不同投資情境下相對於等權重策略(Equal Weight, EW)與大摩日本指數(MSCI Japan Index, MIJP)的風險與報酬表現。
研究期間涵蓋2010年1月至2024年12月,建構涵蓋進攻型、防禦型與保護型(或稱金絲雀型)資產之多元資產池,並採用13612U動量過濾器,實作HAA系列等多種策略版本進行歷史回測分析。
實證結果顯示,在未考量交易成本情境下,HAA系列策略之年化報酬略低,惟風險調整後績效(如Sharpe Ratio與R/D值)尚優於MIJP與EW。在考量保守假設的交易成本後,HAA系列策略之報酬水準進一步下降,平均月報酬皆顯著低於MIJP與EW,表現相對劣勢。
此外,進一步模擬定期定額投資法(Dollar-Cost Averaging, DCA)(未考量交易成本),HAA系列策略在長期資產累積期間雖報酬略低,但部分策略如HAA-G8/T2與HAA-G4於波動度與最大回撤指標上優於MIJP與EW,展現出一定資本保全與風險管理能力,對保守型投資者具有一定參考價值。
總體而言,HAA策略雖未在所有層面全面優於傳統EW策略與MIJP,但其設計架構具備動態調整、風險分層與機制彈性特質,未來可作為資產配置架構優化或策略延伸應用之基礎。
This study investigates the implementation and performance of Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA) strategies in the Japanese financial market, evaluating their relative risk and return under different investment conditions compared to the Equal Weight (EW) strategy and the MSCI Japan Index (MIJP).
Using monthly data from January 2010 to December 2024, this study constructs a diversified asset pool comprising offensive, defensive, and protective (or “canary”) assets, and applies the 13612U momentum filter to implement various HAA strategy versions.
Empirical results indicate that under the baseline condition without transaction costs, HAA strategies exhibit slightly lower annualized returns but offer better risk-adjusted performance (e.g., Sharpe Ratio and return-to-drawdown ratio) than MIJP and EW. However, once conservative transaction costs (0.1% per side) are incorporated, the performance of HAA strategies declines further, and their average monthly returns become significantly lower than both benchmarks.
In addition, under a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) scenario (without transaction costs), HAA strategies generally deliver lower returns during the asset accumulation phase. Nonetheless, certain variants such as HAA-G8/T2 and HAA-G4 demonstrate advantages in volatility control and maximum drawdown metrics compared to MIJP and EW, indicating their potential value for risk-averse investors.
Overall, while HAA strategies do not consistently outperform traditional benchmarks across all dimensions, their design—characterized by dynamic rebalancing, layered risk management, and structural flexibility—suggests potential utility as a foundation for future research and development in asset allocation frameworks.
一、中文部分
丁碧惠、曾家齊 (2005),市場狀態與動能投資策略績效關聯性之研究,台灣金融財務季刊,6(4),1-19。
洪茂蔚、林宜勉、劉志諒(2007),「動能投資策略之獲利性與影響因素」,中山管理評論,第 15 卷第 3 期,第 515-546 頁。
高贈朋 (2006),動能策略與反向策略 - 實證研究於巴西國及印度,中興大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
張尚遠(2007),動量策略應用於台灣股市,國立臺灣大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。
徐中琦、王似尹,(2008),動能投資策略於台灣股票市場的實證研究,台灣銀行季刊,第59卷第4期,266-280。
二、英文部分
Asness, C. S. (2011). Momentum in Japan: The Exception that Proves The Rule. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 37(4), 67–75. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2011.37.4.067
Bekaert, G., & Hodrick, R. J. (2012). International Financial Management. Pearson Education.
Black, F. (1990). Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging. The Journal of Finance, 45(3), 899-907.
Bodie, Z. (1976). Common Stocks as a Hedge Against Inflation. The Journal of Finance, 31(2), 459-470.
Cohen, L. (2023). The Effects of the BoJ’s ETF Purchases on Equities and Corporate Investment (Bank of Japan Working Paper Series No. 23-E-4). Bank of Japan. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106540
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business Conditions and Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Jorion, P. (1994). The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 29(2), 113-126.
Keller, W. J. & van Putten, H. (2012). Generalized Momentum and Flexible Asset Allocation (FAA): A Heuristic Approach. SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2193735
Keller, W. J. & van Putten, H. (2013). Tactical MPT and Momentum: The Modern Asset Allocation (MAA). SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2373086
Keller, W. J. & Butler, A. (2014). A Century of Generalized Momentum; From Flexible Asset Allocations (FAA) to Elastic Asset Allocation (EAA). SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2543979
Keller, W. J. & Keuning, J. W. (2016). Protective Asset Allocation (PAA): A Simple Momentum-Based Alternative for Term Deposits. SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2759734
Keller, W. J. & Keuning, J. W. (2017). Breadth Momentum and Vigilant Asset Allocation (VAA): Winning More by Losing Less. SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3002624
Keller, W. J. & Keuning, J. W. (2018). Breadth Momentum and the Canary Universe: Defensive Asset Allocation (DAA). SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3212862
Keller, W. J. (2019). Growth-Trend Timing and 60-40 Variations: Lethargic Asset Allocation (LAA). SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3498092
Keller, W. J. (2020). Lazy Momentum with Growth-Trend timing: Resilient Asset Allocation (RAA). SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3752294
Keller, W. J. (2022). Relative and Absolute Momentum in Times of Rising/Low Yields: Bold Asset Allocation (BAA). SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4166845
Keller, W. J. & Keuning, J. W. (2023). Dual and Canary Momentum with Rising Yields/Inflation: Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA). SSRN Manuscript, Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4346906
Kono, P., Yatrakis, P., & Segal S. (2011). An Empirical Study of Japanese Market Efficiency: Comparing the Risk-Adjusted Performance of An ETF Portfolio Versus the Topix Index. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 11(5), 1–9. https://globaljournals.org/GJMBR_Volume11/7-An-Empirical-Study-Of-Japanese.pdf
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Moskowitz, T. J., Ooi, Y. H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228-250.
Rompotis, G. G. (2024). A study on the performance of Japanese ETFs. Economic Analysis Letters, 3(3), 46–63. https://doi.org/10.58567/eal03030005
Solnik, B. (1995). Why Not Diversify Internationally Rather Than Domestically? Financial Analysts Journal, 51(1), 89-94.