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研究生：	陳佳榆 Chen, Chia-Yu
論文名稱：	應用模糊規劃理論探討碳稅對於台灣工業部門、運輸部門及服務部門的減排效果 The Mitigating Effect of Carbon Tax on Industry, Transport and Service in Taiwan by Fuzzy Goal Programming
指導教授：	張瀞之 Chang, Ching-Chih
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年：	2012
畢業學年度：	100
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	88
中文關鍵詞：	二氧化碳減量、灰預測模型、模糊、碳碳、補貼
外文關鍵詞：	carbon reduction, grey forecasting model, fuzzy, carbon tax, subsidy
相關次數：	點閱：191 下載：9
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由於經濟快速發展，人類大量使用煤與石油等化石燃料，使得溫室氣體濃度不斷地增加造成對生態環境不可逆的污染與破壞。其中又以二氧化碳為大宗。
隨著全球氣候變暖的壓力，為防止因二氧化碳的高排放量及高成長率導致氣候變遷持續惡化的情形，台灣行政院已提出國家節能減碳總計畫，此計畫之減量目標為於2025年回歸2000年二氧化碳排放水準。本文採用灰色預測模型（GM）和模糊目標規劃（FGP）建立一二氧化碳減量模型，針對工業，運輸和服務部門進行探討，並為各部門找到一個最適的台灣的碳稅稅額，以期達到政府的減量目標。行政院所擬定之初始稅率為每噸二氧化碳需課徵2.51美元，每年增加額度為2.51美元，在10年後才能達到每噸二氧化碳的美國25.13美元。結果顯示出，在此碳稅的稅額下，是無法達到政府所預定的減量目標，如只針對碳稅稅額而無其他減排政策，政府必須提高稅率，達到排放目標。另外，為了減少對經濟增長的影響時，政府在徵收碳稅的同時，也應該制定完整的補貼策施。

Due to rapid economic development, greenhouse gases (GHG), especially CO2, continue to increase and lead to irreversible environmental damage. With the pressure of global warming, The Executive Yuan of Taiwan has proposed to reduce the amount of CO2 emissions to the level of the 2000 by 2025. This paper uses Grey Forecasting model (GM) and Fuzzy Goal Programming (FGP) to construct a carbon dioxide reduction model, and find an optimal carbon tax scenario for Taiwan to achieve that level. Industry, transport and service sectors are discussed. The initial tax rate of is US$2.51 per tonne of CO2 will take 10 years to reach a total of US$25.13 per tonne of CO2. The results show that the tax rate must be raised to reach the target emission goal. To decrease the impact on economic growth when levying a carbon tax, the government of Taiwan is looking at initiating a subsidy policy.

CONTENT
摘要	i
ABSTRACT	ii
CONTENT	iv
TABLE.	v
FIGURE	vii
CHAPTER ONE	1
INTRODUCTION	1
1.1 Background	1
1.2 Motivation	4
1.3 Aim of the study	5
1.4 Study Framework	6
CHAPTER TWO	8
LITERATURE REVIEW	8
2.1 Review of carbon tax literature	8
2.2 Review of Grey Forecasting model literature	11
2.3 Review of Fuzzy Goal Programming Literature	12
CHAPTER THREE	16
METHODOLOGY	16
3.1 Data source and processing	16
3.2 The construction of GM theory	17
3.3 CO2 reduction model	20
3.4 Calculation of parameters of CO2 reduction model	22
CHAPTER FOUR	25
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS	25
4.1Anlysis of grey forecasting results	25
4.2 Results of basic scenario	65
4.3 The scenario for an optimal tax rate	67
4.4 Results of optimal scenario	71
4.5 The impact on GDP of each sector	77
CHAPTER FIVE	82
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS	82
5.1 Conclusions and Suggestions	82
5.2 Limitation	84
REFERENCE	85
TABLE
Table 1-1 The tax rate for each year 2012 to 2021     6
Table 3-1 Industries classification         17
Table 4-1 The actual and predicted values of the total output in the transport sector	26
Table 4-2 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the transport sector	26
Table 4-3 The actual and predicted values of GDP in the transport sector	28
Table 4-4 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the transport sector	28
Table 4-5 The predicted and actual values of CO2 emissions in the transport sector	30
Table 4-6 The predicted value and upper envelope of CO2 emissions in the transport sector	30
Table 4-7 The predicted and actual values of energy consumption in the transport sector	32
Table 4-8 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the transport sector	32
Table 4-9 The actual and predicted values of total output in the industry sector	34
Table 4-10 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the industry sector	34
Table 4-11 The actual and predicted values of GDP in industry sector	36
Table 4-12 The lower envelope and predicted value of GDP in the industry sector	36
Table 4-13 The predicted and actual value of CO2 emissions in the industry sector	38
Table 4-14 The upper envelope and predicted value of CO2 emissions in the industry sector	38
Table 4-15 The predicted and actual values of energy consumption in the industry sector	40
Table 4-16 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the industry sector	40
Table 4-17 The actual and predicted values of total output in the service sector	42
Table 4-18 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the service sector	42
Table 4-19 The actual and predicted values of GDP in the service sector	44
Table 4-20 The lower envelope and predicted value of GDP in the service sector	44
Table 4-21 The actual and predicted values of CO2 emissions in the service sector	46
Table 4-22 The upper envelope and predicted value of CO2 emissions in the service sector	46
Table 4-23 The actual and predicted values of energy consumption in the service sector	48
Table 4-24 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the service sector	48
Table 4-25 The actual and predicted values of total output in the road transport sector	50
Table 4-26 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the road transport sector	50
Table 4-27 The actual and predicted values of GDP in the road transport sector	52
Table 4-28 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the road transport sector	52
Table 4-29 The actual and predicted value of CO2 emissions in the road transport sector	54
Table 4-30 The upper envelope and predicted value and of CO2 emissions in the road transport sector	54
Table 4-31 The predicted and actual values of energy consumption in the road transport sector	56
Table 4-32 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the road transport sector	56
Table 4-33 The actual and predicted values of total output in the aviation transport sector	58
Table 4-34 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the aviation transport sector	58
Table 4-35 The predicted and actual value of GDP in aviation (million US$)	59
Table 4-36 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the aviation transport sector	60
Table 4-37 The actual and predicted value of CO2 emissions in the aviation transport sector	61
Table 4-38 The upper envelope and predicted value of CO2 emissions in the aviation transport section	61
Table 4-39 The actual and predicted values of energy consumption in the aviation transport sector	63
Table 4-40 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the aviation transport sector	63
Table 4-41 Tax rate for each energy type	65
Table 4-42 Optimal tax rate for the transport sector and each energy type	67
Table 4-43 Optimal tax rate for the industry sector and each energy type	68
Table 4-44 Optimal tax rate for the service sector and each energy type	69
Table 4-45 Optimal tax rate for the road transport sector and each energy type	70
Table 4-46 Optimal tax rate for the aviation transport sector and each energy type	71
FIGURE
Fig.1-1 Study Framework        7
Fig.4-1 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in transport sector	27
Fig.4-2 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the transport sector	29
Fig.4-3 The predicted value and upper envelope of CO2 emissions in the transport sector	31
Fig.4-4 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the transport sector	33
Fig.4-5 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the industry sector	35
Fig.4-6 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the industry sector	37
Fig.4-7 The predicted value and upper envelope of CO2 emission in the industry sector	39
Fig.4-8 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the industry sector	41
Fig.4-9 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the service sector	43
Fig.4-10 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the service sector	45
Fig.4-11 The predicted value and upper envelope of CO2 emissions in the service sector	47
Fig.4-12 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the service sector	49
Fig.4-13 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the road transport sector	51
Fig.4-14 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the road transport sector	53
Fig.4-15 The predicted value and upper envelope of CO2 emissions in the road transport sector	55
Fig.4-16 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the road transport sector	57
Fig.4-17 The predicted value and upper envelope of total output in the aviation transport sector	59
Fig.4-18 The predicted value and lower envelope of GDP in the aviation transport sector	60
Fig.4-19 The predicted value and upper envelope of CO2 emissions in aviation transport sector	62
Fig.4-20 The predicted value and upper envelope of energy consumption in the aviation transport sector	64
Fig.4-21 CO2emission of water transport from 1999 to 2010	64
Fig.4-22 CO2 emissions of the transport sector from basic scenario for 2013 to 2025	66
Fig.4-23 CO2 emissions of the industry sector from basic scenario for 2013 to 2025.	66
Fig.4-24 CO2 emissions of the service sector from basic scenario for 2013 to 2025..66
Fig.4-25 CO2 emissions of the transport sector from optimal scenario	71
Fig.4-26 CO2 emissions of the industry sector from optimal scenario      71
Fig.4-27 CO2 emissions of the service sector from optimal scenario      72
Fig.4-28 CO2 emissions of road transport from optimal scenario	73
Fig.4-29 CO2 emissions of the aviation transport sector from optimal scenario	74
Fig.4-30 CO2 emissions of the transport sector from optimal scenario and without tax	75
Fig.4-31 CO2 emissions of the industry sector from optimal scenario and without tax	75
Fig.4-32 CO2 emissions of the service sector from optimal scenario and without tax	75
Fig.4-33 CO2 emissions of the road transport sector from optimal scenario and without tax	76
Fig.4-34 CO2 emissions of the aviation transport sector from optimal scenario and without tax	76
Fig.4-35 GDP of the transport sector under optimal scenario and without tax	77
Fig.4-36 GDP of the industry sector under optimal scenario tax and without tax	77
Fig.4-37 GDP of the service sector under optimal scenario and without tax	78
Fig.4-38 GDP of the road transport sector under optimal scenario and without tax	78
Fig.4-39 GDP of the aviation sector under optimal scenario and without tax	78
Fig.4-40 CO2 emissions per GDP	80
Fig.4-41 The mitigating effect from each scenario of the transport sector	80
Fig.4-42 The mitigating effect from each scenario of the industry sector	81
Fig.4-43 The mitigating effect from each scenario of the service sector	81


                                    

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