本研究針對邊坡遭遇之非飽和土層淺層崩塌破壞進行解析法分析，以期發展不同於現有以雨量監測為指標之經驗法預警模式，提高預警之準確與時效性。土壤之力學特性受土壤有效應力狀態影響，非飽和土壤有效應力組成包括基質吸力及淨正向應力，降雨入滲使非飽和邊坡有效應力狀態改變，進而影響邊坡之穩定性。研究先使用嚴謹力學及通用性之解析法進行無限邊坡穩定分析，並利用水力力學耦合試驗系統進行邊坡滑動實驗驗證，探討在不同平衡狀態下(坡角、基質吸力分布)，入滲隨時間對邊坡穩定性影響，結果顯示所發展之分析架構可預測邊坡依時性反應，未來可作為發展場址客製化具依時特性之淺層邊坡破壞預警架構之潛力。

To improve the limitations of rainfall-based slope warning system, a new framework that integrated the hydro-mechanical slope analysis is under development to establish a customized, time-dependent warning system for shallow slide failures triggered by rainfalls. Mechanicals characteristic of soils are dominated by effective stress state which involves with net normal stress and matric suction in unsaturated soils. Precipitations infiltrates in unsaturated soil slope change the soil stress state and stability of slopes. A coupled hydro-mechanical analysis that considers both the hydraulic infiltrations and mechanical responses of unsaturated soils in shallow slide failure for infinite slope cases is performed. The analysis is verified using an innovative hydro-mechanical testing apparatus that is capable of simulating the hydraulic and mechanical behaviors in initially unsaturated conditions. Comparisons between the predictions and results of physical modelling show that the analysis procedure can rationally predict the time-dependent failure process. The potential of developing a customized, time-dependent warning system for shallow slide failure is promising.

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