天然氣相較於其他化石燃料潔淨且有效率，在節能減碳的國際趨勢下，天然氣之使用亦成為受矚目之焦點。2011年日本福島核災後，台灣頒布《新能源政策》，為達成綠能低碳環境目標，未來增加天然氣的使用為必然之趨勢，因此，對於價格之掌握即顯得格外重要。
台灣、日本及韓國由於其地理環境及地緣政治因素，天然氣進口皆需以液化天然氣(LNG)型態進口，其LNG進口價格主要以JCC為指標，在趨勢上均具有正相關之關係，因此，可嘗試利用時間序列方法進行探討三國價格之關係。另外，有鑑於頁岩氣發展之重要性，本研究也以時間序列方法分析美國頁岩氣開採是否會對台灣、日本及韓國LNG之進口價格有所影響。
本研究以共整合方析分別討論(1)台灣、日本及韓國LNG進口價格，探討其長期均衡、短期互動及因果關係；(2)Henry Hub天然氣價格分別與台灣、日本及韓國之關係，以分析頁岩氣開採是否對LNG進口價格有所影響。其結果顯示日本與韓國在長期和台灣具有均衡趨勢(具有共整合關係)，且在因果關係上，日、韓對台灣均有單向之影響關係。
過去實務操作上，在評估台灣未來LNG進口價格波動方面，偏重於觀察日本LNG進口價格變化，根據此實證關係，未來亦可將韓國之價格波動列入參考。在頁岩氣開採對LNG價格影響分析上，由於福島核災後，日本對於LNG需求大增，以及中國與印度對於LNG之需求亦逐年增加，因此，在本研究實證結果上，Henry Hub天然氣價格與三國LNG價格之長期關係上均呈現負相關，與頁岩氣產量增加可能使得LNG價格下降之預期結果相異。

Compared to other fossil fuels, natural gas is cleaner and more efficient. To achieve the target of carbon reduction, the expansion of natural gas using is highly emphasized. Taiwan government issued “The New Energy Policy” after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, the volumes of natural gas consumption in Taiwan is planned to increase for creating a green energy environment in the future. Therefore, it is important to investigate the price volatility of natural gas.
Because of the geographical and geopolitical factor in Taiwan, Japan and Korea, they all have to import LNG (liquefied natural gas) to meet domestic demand. Since LNG import prices are mainly linked to JCC, this study is trying to apply time series method to examine the relationship among these three countries’ LNG prices. In view of the booming of shale gas supply in America, this research also studies whether the shale gas exploitation affects LNG import prices of Taiwan, Japan and Korea.
This study applies cointegration analysis to examine (1) the long-run equilibrium, short-run fluctuations and causality relationship of the LNG import prices of Taiwan, Japan and Korea; (2) the relationship among Henry Hub natural gas prices and the LNG import prices of Taiwan, Japan and Korea. The result reveals that Japan and Korea LNG import prices have the cointegration relationship with Taiwan LNG import prices, and there are unidirectional causalities from Japan and Korea to Taiwan.
In the past, Taiwan mainly observed the fluctuation of Japan LNG import prices to evaluate LNG import prices. According to the research results, Taiwan could also consider Korea’s LNG import price in the future. Although the emerging of shale gas weaken the natural gas in the States significantly, Japan increases the demand of LNG after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan, together with the growing demand of LNG in China and India, Henry Hub natural gas prices have negative impacts on Taiwan, Japan and Korea LNG import prices.

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