本研究旨在探討東西方轉型國家外人直接投資流入之情形與影響因素，探討的國家在東南亞方面包括越南、緬甸、寮國與柬埔寨；東歐國家則是波蘭、匈牙利、羅馬尼亞與保加利亞。這些國家先後於80年代末期進行經濟層面的變革，外人直接投資成為這些資金缺少的國家取得生產技術與管理能力的重要來源之一。然而兩集團與各國朝向市場經濟的深度與廣度存在相當大的歧異，從而導致吸引外人直接投資的成效也迥異。從東南亞與東歐轉型國家在轉型初期的FDI流入可看出，外國投資人在這些國家政經社環境尚未穩定的情形下普遍採取較為謹慎的投資策略，同時兩集團國家均顯示出相當程度的區域內投資傾向。不過東歐國家已能發展比東南亞轉型國家技術水平較高的產業。整體而言，東歐的FDI流入是比東南亞轉型國家表現較為優異。
另外，本研究建立一動態追蹤資料模型，採用固定效果的方式，進行外人直接投資流入因素的實證分析比較，研究時間自1990年至2001年，考量9個變數，分類為投資環境、總體經濟與成本相關因素，另外並考慮亞洲金融風暴與前一期FDI的影響。實證結果發現，匯率對東歐國家之FDI流入具有正面效果，顯示出其對東歐國有企業私有化政策的重要性；而東南亞國家深受本身政治環境與地區性經濟衝擊影響，在前一期FDI流入與亞洲金融風暴的影響上特別顯著。另外，外國投資人皆把兩集團亦把服務市場作為投資標的之一，因此在經濟規模上有正面影響。本文因此結論到，從實證的結果可知，兩集團之不同政經轉型路徑與政策對FDI流入影響甚深，更重要的是，地主國本身的經濟表現均有相當顯著的正面效果，反應出一個發展良好的經濟環境是各國需持續努力之目標。

This paper is to analyze the determinants of foreign direct investment in the transitional countries of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar; and Southeast Europe, including Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. These eight countries have started their respective economic reform since late 1980s and attracting FDI inflow has therefore become the essential of economic policies. However, the effects of FDI inflow differ significantly, due to different pace and extent of transition among countries.
The comparison of total magnitudes of FDI inflows, sources of the FDI, the distribution among industrial sectors, and FDI-related regulations among these eight transitional economies are discussed. It is obvious that for unstable political and economic environment in the beginning of transferring, most foreign investors adopt cautious investment strategy. And the eight countries’ FDI inflows are mostly from the neighboring countries. However, the industries in Southeast Europe transitional countries have developed higher level of technology than the ones in Southeast Asia transitional countries. For the overall performance, the FDI inflow to Southeast Europe countries stands out better than Southeast Asia countries owing to, at least partly, more stable political situation and aggressive and consistent economic policies.
A dynamic panel data model with fixed effect will be constructed to analyze the locational determinants of FDI inflow in the eight transitional countries, for the period of 1990 to 2002. The determinants are divided into three categories: macroeconomic factors, cost-related factors, and investment environment improving factors. Additionally, a dummy variable to proxy the 1997 Asian financial crisis and a lagged dependent variable of FDI will also be considered in the model. The result shows that the different pace of transition has deep impact on FDI inflow. Exchange rate has positive effect on Southeast Europe for privatization policy. And lagged FDI inflow and Asian financial crisis have significant effects on Southeast Asia, revealing the importance of domestic political situation and regional economic shock. Finally, foreign investors all view the two transitional regions as newly developing markets for significant and positive market size.

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