在國際間近期的研究中發現，一間公司科技多角化的程度會影響其創新績效、多角化績效、股票市場價值等重要績效指標，但只有少數的文獻對於造成科技多角化的原因作探討。近期在行為財務學領域的研究中發現經理人的過度自信會使得經理人越能夠承受風險，並影響經理人的投資決策。這篇論文假設過度自信的經理人有可能會有兩種選擇：一、選擇超出廠商原有科技技術範疇的研發計劃，追求範疇經濟的利益，但面臨較高的未知技術風險，這樣的選擇會造成廠商的科技多角化程度增加；二、選擇投資在已專精的科技領域中的研發計畫，追求技術專精所帶來的優勢，但面臨較高的產業環境變動風險，這樣的選擇會造成廠商的科技多角化程度降低。經過本論文的實證研究後發現，在製造業中越自信的經理人越傾向選擇技術專精的策略；並且高自信水準的經理人會更趨向於技術專精的策略，使得科技多角化程度更為降低。

Technological diversity is a very important leading factor that influences a firm’s innovation performance, diversification performance or market value in recent research. Little researches talked about what factor may influence a firm’s technological diversity. According to recent findings in Behavior finance, over confident CEO may make more risk taking investment decisions to pursue profit. This thesis proposes that over-confident CEO may choose riskier technology development projects to pursue higher performance. Over-confident CEO may chose a specialization strategy and facing a higher risk of environmental dynamism. On the other hand, over-confident CEO may chose a diversification strategy and facing higher risks of unfamiliar technology. These decisions made by an over confident CEO will result a narrower or wider technological diversity of the firm. This research found out that a firm with a more confident CEO will have a narrower technological diversity and this effect is even stronger in high confident CEOs.

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