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研究生: 郭穎婕
Kuo, Ying-Chieh
論文名稱: 探討不確定性對共享電動機車的使用意圖之影響
Exploring the Impact of Uncertainty on the Intention to Use Shared Electric Scooters
指導教授: 鄭永祥
Cheng, Yung-Hsiang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 121
中文關鍵詞: 共享電動機車不確定性心理所有權行為推理理論Hybrid 選擇模式
外文關鍵詞: Electric moped scooter sharing, Uncertainty, Behavioral reasoning theory, Psychological ownership, Hybrid choice model
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  • 近年來共享電動機車的興起,為城市內的短程移動帶來嶄新的樣貌。 儘管共享電動機車如同私人運具一樣的方便,卻因為共享運具潛在的不可 用性,造成旅客在使用上會面臨到不確定性,而過去文獻多數會忽略其影 響,較少探討旅客在使用過程所感受到的不確定性程度。此外旅客在使用 共享電動機車的過程可能產生心理所有權,但過往較缺乏這方面的討論。 因此本研究以旅客的角度,探討影響使用共享電動機車之潛在心理變數, 並結合客觀屬性變數,以求更全面完善的分析
    本研究採用行為推理理論,將推理理由分為採用與拒絕因素,其中透 過感知風險來衡量旅客感知的不確定性程度,並加入使用共享經濟的原因, 以了解正面與反面影響旅客使用共享電動機車之主觀心理因素。在客觀屬 性變數方面,使用個體選擇模式分析方案屬性變數、社會經濟變數對於使 用共享電動機車與否的選擇行為。透過 Hybrid 選擇模式,結合潛在心理變 數與方案屬性變數,探討心理因素對於選擇行為的影響程度。最後衡量不 同個體之間心理所有權的差異,與選擇行為是否有關聯。
    研究結果顯示,在潛在心理變數方面「心理所有權」、「享樂動機」、「感 知有用性」、「感知稀少風險」、「感知互惠風險」及「心理風險」會影響使 用意圖;而在客觀情境選擇的方案屬性變數當中,以「找到停車格機率」 對旅客的影響最大。最後透過彈性與敏感度分析分別探討「接駁運具車內 時間」、「旅行成本」以及「找到停車格機率」增減變動,對於其他替選方 案的選擇機率及變動情形。本研究結果可以作為共享電動機車業者改善營 銷策略之參考。

    Electric moped scooter sharing (EMSS), well-known as a solution of first-last mile problem, has strongly accelerated its growth recently. However, passengers may encounter several risks because of the inherent uncertainty during the use. This uncertainty stems from the possible unavailability of shared mobility. Most studies ignore the inherent uncertainty of shared mobility that leads to over optimistic predictions of shared mobility potential, also few studies take EMSS as the research subject. To fill up this gap, this paper focuses on examining the impact of uncertainty of EMSS on the intention to use. Using the survey data collected in Taiwan cities, mixed logit model and behavioral reasoning theory model are proposed. By applying a hybrid choice model, we integrate latent variables and discrete choice model into one structure to simultaneously consider both tangible attributes and intangible perceptions from the perspective of passengers. Results show that “probability of finding a parking space” of alternative attributes contributes most to the utility of mode choices. Moreover, results indicate that the perceived risks, such as perceived scarcity risk and functional risk have evidently negative impact to hinder the use of EMSS. This study is expected to provide a better understanding for system operators and governments on the influential factors of using EMSS.

    目錄ix 圖目錄 xi 表目錄xii 第一章 緒論1 1.1 研究背景與動機1 1.2 研究目的3 1.3 研究範圍與對象4 1.4 研究流程5 第二章 文獻回顧6 2.1 共享電動機車發展6 2.2 加入共享經濟之相關因素8 2.3 心理所有權9 2.4 影響使用共享運具之相關因素10 2.5 不確定性與風險11 2.6 行為推理理論模型13 2.7 Hybrid 選擇模型16 2.8 小結17 第三章 研究方法18 3.1 敘述性偏好法20 3.2 個體選擇模式20 3.3 多項羅吉特模式22 3.4 混合羅吉特模式23 3.5 Hybrid 選擇模式25 第四章 研究模型28 4.1 研究模型建構28 4.2 替選方案屬性水準值設計29 4.2.1 住家運輸場站時間30 4.2.2 主要運具時間31 4.2.3 接駁運具之車外時間31 4.2.4 接駁運具之車內時 32 4.2.5 找到停車格機率33 4.2.6 旅行成本34 4.3 潛在變數構面之選擇、假設及問項37 4.4 問卷設計與抽樣方式50 第五章 實證分析51 5.1 樣本敘述性統計分析51 5.2 多項羅吉特分析62 5.2.1 變數設定62 5.2.2 結果分析63 5.3 Hybrid 選擇模式分析 67 5.3.1 驗證性因素分析67 5.3.2 結構方程模式73 5.3.3 回歸分析80 5.3.4 Hybrid 選擇模式 84 5.4 彈性分析92 5.5 敏感度分析 95 第六章 結論與建議100 6.1 結論100 6.2 研究貢獻102 6.3 研究限制與建103 參考資料107 附錄 問卷116

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