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研究生: 蔡曉涵
Tsai, Hsiao-Han
論文名稱: 公共運輸行動服務使用意願之研究
Exploring Individual’s Intention toward Mobility as a Service
指導教授: 鄭永祥
Cheng, Yung-Hsiang
黃郁雯
Huang, Yu-Wen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系碩士在職專班
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science(on-the-job training program)
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 100
中文關鍵詞: 公共運輸行動服務潛在變數選擇模式中介效果選擇行為願付價格
外文關鍵詞: Mobility as a Service, Hybrid discrete choice model, Mediating effect, Choice behavior, Willingness to pay
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  • 為提升公共運輸的使用量,許多國家刻正規畫推動公共運輸行動服務(Mobility as a Service, MaaS),本研究首先利用個體選擇模式以及結構方程模式,分別探討社會經濟變數對於小客車、機車與MaaS這3項替選方案之偏好,以及潛在變數對於使用意願之影響,最後在Hybrid選擇模式的分析中,透過將社會經濟變數與潛在變數進行迴歸分析,再將潛在變數帶入羅吉特模式,進一步分析受訪者心理層面對於運具選擇方案的影響,使得模式更符合實際情況。
    研究結果在潛在變數模式方面顯示,知覺產品屬性與易用性會正向影響使用意願;促銷或獎勵措施會正向影響知覺產品屬性以及使用意願;整合運輸會正向影響知覺產品屬性;而知覺產品屬性會作為「促銷或獎勵措施與使用意願」以及「整合運輸與使用意願」的中介變數;另外知覺風險會負向影響使用意願。
    在Hybrid選擇模式之混合羅吉特模式分析結果,對於知覺產品屬性構面程度高的族群,相較於MaaS,較不偏好使用小客車及機車。藉由混合羅吉特模型的建立,計算出MaaS的選擇機率為37.03%,且MaaS在「每月票價或成本」直接彈性的絕對值最高,其次為「車內時間」,表示若MaaS能降低票價或縮短車內時間,將會比改變其他屬性變數更能有效吸引旅客使用。研究結果期以提供政府部門及相關單位決策之參考,作出符合旅客以及營運需求之策略。

    In order to increase the usage of public transportation, many countries are planning to promote Mobility as a Service (MaaS). This study aims to explore individual’s intention toward MaaS. At the first stage, we utilize discrete choice model to analyze user’s preference for car, scooter and MaaS. Then we utilize structural equation modeling (SEM) to verify which latent variables affecting intention. At last, hybrid discrete choice model (HDCM) is utilized to combine discrete choice model and latent variable model, so that the model will closer to the real situation.
    The results of SEM indicate that “perceived product attributes” and “ease of use” positively affect “intention”. “Promotions or incentives” positively affect “perceived product attributes” and “intention”. “Integrated transportation” positively affects “perceived product attributes”. Besides, “perceived product attributes” is not only the mediator between “promotions or incentives” and “intention”, but also “integrated transportation” and “intention”. “Perceived risk” will negatively impact “intention”.
    HDCM shows that the group with high awareness of “perceived product attributes” prefer MaaS to car and scooter. The results of mixed logit model indicate the choice probability of MaaS is 37.03%. Moreover, the direct elasticity of “cost” is the highest using in MaaS. The results of the study can provide reference for transportation planning department and transportation operator for their decisions in pricing strategy.

    第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究範圍及對象 2 1.4 研究流程 3 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2.1 都市化之趨勢 5 2.2 公共運輸行動服務 7 2.3 公共運輸轉乘以及使用新產品需考慮之因素 9 2.4 新產品採用模型 11 2.5 Hybrid選擇模式相關研究 12 2.6 小結 14 第三章 研究方法 15 3.1 敘述性偏好法 16 3.2 個體選擇模式 17 3.2.1 多項羅吉特模式 19 3.2.2 羅吉特模式之檢定 20 3.2.3 混合羅吉特模式 20 3.3 結構方程模式 21 3.4 Hybrid選擇模式 25 第四章 研究模型 29 4.1 模式建構 29 4.2 選擇模式替選方案屬性水準值設計 30 4.2.1 屬性變數與水準值 30 4.2.2 直交設計 35 4.3 潛在變數模型與假設 38 4.3.1 潛在變數研究模型 38 4.3.2 研究構面假設 40 4.3.3 潛在變數各因素量測 42 4.4 問卷設計與抽樣方式 46 4.4.1 問卷設計 46 4.4.2 抽樣方法 47 第五章 實證分析 48 5.1 敘述性統計分析 48 5.2 多項羅吉特分析 52 5.2.1 模式變數設定 52 5.2.2 多項羅吉特模式分析結果 54 5.3 潛在變數模式分析結果 58 5.3.1 測量模式 58 5.3.2 結構方程模式 65 5.3.3 迴歸分析 70 5.4 Hybrid選擇模式分析結果 78 5.5 願付價格分析 83 5.6 彈性分析 83 5.7 敏感度分析 86 第六章 結論與建議 88 6.1 結論 88 6.2 研究貢獻 90 6.2.1 學術貢獻 90 6.2.2 實務貢獻 90 6.3 研究限制與建議 91 6.3.1 研究限制 91 6.3.2 研究建議 91 參考文獻 93 附錄1 問卷 96

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